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Castanza

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Everything posted by Castanza

  1. For institutional trader yes. For PAs you can wait until expiration and take delivery or close out with limited vega and theta exposure. Well yes, that is what I characterized as being stuck in the position. The capital is tied up until expiry OR you lock in a loss greater than the common stock. If you're only selling 1 month puts, being locked up isn't a big deal, but your premiums are tiny, transaction costs eat most of it, and you can expect these things to move against you more frequently. If you sell them further out, much more opportunity to make greater premiums, less frequency of a negative outcome if held until maturity, but ALSO tying up capital when you're wrong OR taking greater losses than in the common. It's not the same thing as stock ownership and comes with its own set of psychological barriers/problems/biases to work through. I personally like options, but they're not easy and certainly not a substitute for outright stock exposure IMO. Again, I'm not denying the risk. But I think you're overstating it. MSFT has better premiums doing it weekly than it does monthly. Also avoiding earnings weeks can help reduce risk. Plus if you're really worried about a 20% drop you can offset premiums buy buying a few OTM puts. edit: And you could get whipsawed on that hedge put. So it doesn't completely negate risk.
  2. The writing of puts takes very little effort on blue chip stocks especially if you're not greedy about premiums and go decently out to 95%+ profitability range. I just don't see how this is anymore risky than owning the underlying stock. As Greg pointed out. Value investors are just as likely to hold BAC on the way to zero as someone who would write puts for premiums with the risk of potentially getting assigned. Now if you do this on say Beyond Meat yeah you're a moron. But doing this on SPY or other securities you would hold long-term, I don't see the risk. Maybe I'm missing something....the majority of you on here are much better investors than myself. How many of you would liquidate a portfolio of $SPY if it dropped 15% in a day? If this were to happen the person who got assigned shares now has the advantage vs the person who is holding. I could write covered calls and collect premiums while you have to hold until SPY climbs back to your dca before you could sell or write covered calls.
  3. I've been religiously writing ATM cash covered puts on this all year collecting premiums. I got assigned shares a few times. I also hedged a few times buying puts that offset premiums a bit but also gave some additional protection to the downside. Been averaging about 2-3% a month on the capital. Not quite as good as your strategy but if you're not looking to hold shares I don't think it's a bad strategy. You do miss the div though. Curious how many others on here sell covered calls or cash covered puts? In this environment it seems quite easy to do confidently. I saw Boilermaker has been doing something similar in an IRA I believe. Although I haven't been doing it strictly on BAC. I do it all the time with BRKB, WFC, BAC, and AMGN when AMGN 170-puts have sufficient premium. It's interesting to think about this at scale and why people choose to not do it. I mean if you had say 500k you could basically generate a 50-60k yearly income off this strategy with minimal risk. I mean even with say weekly SPY 280 puts (86% profit chance) you generate a $94 premium. Just say 25% for taxes so a 70.5 premium. You could do about 18 contracts a week and generate about 5k a month in income. Yeah you would get the shaft if the market tanked, but that would happen to your retirement accounts regardless. Why is this? Because the risk you're taking is many hundreds of thousands of dollars when it doesn't work out. You're selling insurance for a premium - it's great when the insurance doesn't have to pay, but a doozy when it does. As far as the strategy, I trade around my core positions ALL of the time. Take gains here, average down there, roll back. Also, I sell long-dated out-of-the money calls and tend to repurchase most of them on market dips 5-10% for 50-60% less, wait for the recovery, and rinse/repeat. All of these strategies take advantage of volatility - but they all suck-hard when they go wrong or you get whipsawed. The buying/selling the actual shares around a core position is probably the least risky, but also the least rewarding/leveraged. As LC said, works best when done on a portfolio of multiple securities you're already comfortable holding and low commission accounts. I get that but my point if if you're simply holding SPY and the market crashes you're going to be down a ton anyways. If you're holding cash and you get assigned shares selling puts what's the difference?
  4. I've been religiously writing ATM cash covered puts on this all year collecting premiums. I got assigned shares a few times. I also hedged a few times buying puts that offset premiums a bit but also gave some additional protection to the downside. Been averaging about 2-3% a month on the capital. Not quite as good as your strategy but if you're not looking to hold shares I don't think it's a bad strategy. You do miss the div though. Curious how many others on here sell covered calls or cash covered puts? In this environment it seems quite easy to do confidently. I saw Boilermaker has been doing something similar in an IRA I believe. Although I haven't been doing it strictly on BAC. I do it all the time with BRKB, WFC, BAC, and AMGN when AMGN 170-puts have sufficient premium. It's interesting to think about this at scale and why people choose to not do it. I mean if you had say 500k you could basically generate a 50-60k yearly income off this strategy with minimal risk. I mean even with say weekly SPY 280 puts (86% profit chance) you generate a $94 premium. Just say 25% for taxes so a 70.5 premium. You could do about 18 contracts a week and generate about 5k a month in income. Yeah you would get the shaft if the market tanked, but that would happen to your retirement accounts regardless. Why is this?
  5. Why wouldn't you just do this with cash covered puts? Weekly premium ATM is $1.89. If you get assigned then it's no different than your situation. Plus you can simply buy an OTM put as a hedge which offsets your premium a bit, but provides good downside protection. That's safer than placing a large amount of capital into a single company. Both strategies are capital intensive.
  6. I've been religiously writing ATM cash covered puts on this all year collecting premiums. I got assigned shares a few times. I also hedged a few times buying puts that offset premiums a bit but also gave some additional protection to the downside. Been averaging about 2-3% a month on the capital. Not quite as good as your strategy but if you're not looking to hold shares I don't think it's a bad strategy. You do miss the div though. Curious how many others on here sell covered calls or cash covered puts? In this environment it seems quite easy to do confidently. I saw Boilermaker has been doing something similar in an IRA I believe. Although I haven't been doing it strictly on BAC.
  7. Sold $MLR about a week ago at 33.5 a share. Couldn't pass up the 10% profit in a few weeks.
  8. Curious to see the long term affects of something like this. Perhaps we would see a revitalization in the "Dirty Dancing" style vacation resorts which people frequented before the consumer airline industry killed it. I doubt it, but who knows. I'm very skeptical of this happening. The younger generations love to travel and selfishness always prevails.
  9. I just got the Pro and it seems nice. I think upgraded screen and additional camera is worth the $100 bucks or so. This is my first iPhone though so I can't really compare it. I've also always went with low end android phones (Moto G5 Plus $249). I believe my wife upgraded from the 6s and obviously it's clearly a better phone. Still not jazzed about the lack of headphone jack. Overall this seems like it had enough stuff to warrant a pricier phone. It seems that people (at least women) are excited enough about the new camera to upgrade. I think the 11 series will sell better than the last two, but that's just a guess.
  10. https://amp.businessinsider.com/wework-ceo-adam-neumann-layoffs-firing-tequila-shots-run-dmc-2019-9 Simply amazing
  11. My question is what are they going to regulate? It seems like they will simply put an official label on what already exists. Correct me if I'm wrong but weren't the overwhelming majority of deaths caused by illegal products? What would the FDA even say? I can't picture them coming out and saying "vaping is safer than smoking." As that would simply drive sales and some people would take that as "this is kind of healthy". It really just seems like they want their federal tax money and that's it.
  12. Interesting for sure. Thanks for sharing. Here is a link https://www.ft.com/content/d0ece5b8-d5d3-11e9-8367-807ebd53ab77
  13. Sheetz gas station chain. - People love Sheetz food. - Tesla Charging stations. Not unique but their atmosphere and food are arguably best in class giving them some advantage over competition to entice people to charge there. - 530ish locations (Flying J has 650ish)
  14. Yeah I agree from an investment standpoint. If a regulatory body can study this in depth and determine it was something else causing the issues (most likely) then it could help to reduce liability moving forward for PM and MO. Most likely they will never get deemed "safe." But if the government or a trusted regulator deems them "safer than tobacco" then that has to be good. Question is how long will studies of this nature take? This political attack is focused on children which is always a prime time attention grabber and heading into elections I imagine this will become a big talking point. Certainly this will have some impact on share price.
  15. https://finance.yahoo.com/video/trump-admin-considers-ban-flavored-175044178.html Government action.....sigh
  16. https://www.cnn.com/2019/09/10/business/ford-downgrade-junk/index.html
  17. https://www.cdc.gov/tobacco/basic_information/e-cigarettes/severe-lung-disease.html
  18. Sold my remaining $BREW Sept 20 $12.5 and $10 puts.
  19. Are you buying puts with the VIX around 16?
  20. When does personal responsibility come into play? I'm not disagreeing with your point, but I'm also not agreeing with it. My issue with much of the Democratic policies is they want to remove all personal responsibility, accountability and decision making from the process. We shouldn't have a nanny state, yet I agree there probably are some lending practices which are harmful (but shouldn't necessarily be illegal). On the radio the other day some workplace was offering to pay off student debt for signed employment contracts of a specific length of time. I'd imagine there are some shady practices in the fine print there. Is it not just as shady/predatory to make some "taxpayer" foot the bill for others poor decisions? Does that not also fall under predatory/shady lending practices? I didn't force you to take out a loan and I'm also not volunteering my money to pay for your loan. All you're left with is force which is simply predation on a faceless person aka the tax payer.
  21. The only real competition in this space is Kubernetes but that is still a ways off. Wouldn't be surprised to see Google come out with a strong competitor (possibly take back Kubernetes?) as they have been focusing hard on cloud and virtual platforms. I work with VM daily and at least in my specific industry I don't see us getting away from it anytime soon. It's unbelievably user friendly and simple to use. Either way VM isn't going anywhere for at least 5 years.
  22. This thread should come with a disclaimer: "DO NOT APPROACH YOUNG WOMEN ASKING ABOUT THEIR UNDERWEAR Even if it's in the name of DD :P
  23. I agree with this to an extent. But at the end of the day VS was created by a man. Yoga pants were created by men. How women dress is also heavily influenced by men. Sure women primarily dress to compete against each other, but it all comes back to attracting a mate lol. As crass as that is it's true. So to say men shouldn't try to evaluate the market they helped create is a bit inaccurate. Both opinions certainly add value. Women have had many cultural and cosmetic shifts throughout history (see link). Yet at the end of the day most cosmetic choices have been partially driven by their "effectiveness" on men and partially driven by what makes women feel "sexy." VS cancelled their fashion show this year so they are beginning to get a clue as to what shifting in the industry.
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