Castanza

Didn't Netflix just miss on user growth by a few million? You're absolutely right when you say it's all about content. This "r&d" cost will likely skyrocket as competition increases and the need to push out better content quicker to compete grows. However, I do think Netflix has some pricing leverage on the table that they aren't currently utilizing. How do you feel about FB Libra. The company in general seems to constantly put themselves in the crosshairs of big government. But who knows? I mean Nancy Pelosi does have a bunch of LEAPS. Also have been looking at MSFT. Took a small position when it was in the 90's earlier this year and will certainly add if another opportunity presents itself. Can't really say enough good about Google. They are the gold standard in so many sectors.

The best brands aren't public companies (Glock). Most people build their own AR-15's with parts from various different companies. And the AR's which people buy "complete" are generally from smaller companies which produce better products. Daniel Defense, Palmetto State Armory, etc. Seems to be moving more towards a high end custom market for firearms. https://www.fbi.gov/file-repository/nics_firearm_checks_-_month_year.pdf/view Shows number of background checks since 1998. Can't technically be correlated to sales, but you can kind of assume it (why else would you get a background check?). From a non-investing standpoint it's also difficult to judge sales because so many sales happen through private parties (person to person). I've never bought a firearm from a store. And most people I know also don't buy from stores or manufacturers. $AOBC actually did pretty well this past quarter (Smith & Wesson) They sell the M&P Shield which is a really popular concealed carry firearm.

+ Berry Had this on my watch for a bit. Finally a good entry point.

I was just about to ask if this was a thing. I wonder how it's structured as the "cost" of a hack is often hard to quantify.

I always though SFIX would be a good acquisition target for Amazon. I wonder if that will ever been in the cards?

Adding to $MO

I don't disagree, with your view. I honestly probably wouldn't use the service. And if I did I certainly wouldn't hold any significant sum of money in it. Just thought the idea was interesting.

It seems to be the easiest way to exchange between gold and fiat. Per their website you can withdraw in fiat from any ATM. Seems to be that you can also convert gold to any currency they support. I guess that could be useful for some. Not sure what restrictions apply, but people who currently use Bitcoin to change currency might find this a better option.

I get that you think Einhorn is an idiot, a point that has been repeated ad infinitum on this board in recent years. Do you have any actual thoughts on the point he's trying to make here? I thought the Pets.com-Chewy parallel was an interesting one. Of course Einhorn leaves out alot, like that Pets.com was nearly pre-revenue when it IPO'd. Chewy is an actual business. Pets.com was never much more than an idea. More broadly, I think the profitability of selling dog food on the internet is still an open question. Zooplus in Europe looks like it operates around break even. Even more broadly, I agree with Einhorn that many US companies seem priced for something close to perfection. For what it's worth, when I was at UPS I remember whenever the Chewy's contract came up for bid UPS pursued it hard. Dog food deliveries were (for UPS) high margin. Dense heavy product packed in a box as small as possible that was pretty much a recurring monthly shipment. Pet food deliveries were always increasing yoy. Again, from Chewy's perspective can it be profitable? I don't know. All I can say is, the demand seems to be there for the product and delivery service. Customers had nothing but good things to say about it. Women loved not having to pick up 50lb bags at the grocery store. Cat litter is also another big one. That's really interesting, thanks. From Chewy's website FAQ: "Orders over $49 ship free! All other orders ship for a flat rate of $4.95." I wonder how much their average cost to ship a 50lb bag of dog food is? IDK but Amazon will ship a bag costing $26.74 for free. https://www.amazon.com/Purina-Chow-Complete-Food-Bonus/dp/B00PFXFH6O Well if you do a quick shipping quote on UPS website for a 40lb bag (retail $27) 26x16x6 Standard Ground service in state = $28 shipping cost. I used a local Amazon warehouse to my houses address. Things this doesn't address: - Manufacturer -> Amazon cost - 2 Day shipping - Labor fee for packaging, handling in warehouse I don't see how Amazon or any company can pay for the shipping costs on this. Dog food (according to the internet :P) is a low margin product from the manufacturer. - The original manufacturer certainly isn't taking a loss on this - UPS certainly isn't taking a loss (although they are only making pennies) - Amazon almost certainly IS taking a loss and subsidizing the costs.

Been following the development of this for a bit and they finally are launching in the US. Not sure if anyone on here has any experience with this payment system. What caught my attention was the easy liquidity of the platform. You basically purchase gold with fiat currency (which is stored elsewhere). You then receive a debit card which allows you to spend this gold as if you are using fiat currency. The fee is .5%, not much worse than credit card transaction fees. Obviously I wouldn't advocate using this as a primary savings account etc, but I can see the utility of it as an extremely liquid market hedge. Maybe store a few thousand in the account and put the card away for special circumstances? Gold ETF's and physical gold have always been a pain to deal with. Most Gold ETF's require you to have an extremely large position to be eligible for a gold payout. Maybe this solves that issue to an extent? Anyways, I found it interesting and with all the doom and gloom talk of EU and the global economy on here I figured I'd share :P https://glintpay.com/en_us/ I mean who wouldn't want to buy a cup of coffee with gold?!

Whats the reason for the switch? You see more upside with PayPal? Long term yes. Short term also capitulating to any bearish ideas. The original idea was to invest in some recession-resistant dividend paying companies with at least some pricing power. But growth has totally outperformed this idea. Mostly I think I need to move towards a more passive (indexing) option, at least for the near term (3-5 yrs I'd guess). Over the last year I haven't really had the time/energy/pleasure to actually do any investment research, and the results reflect it. Even worse, I haven't really cared... The reality is given my situation (age, net worth) my ROI is higher concentrating on my career than on my portfolio (ROI both in terms of amount and volatility of cash inflows). Something about whole-assing one thing vs. half-assing two things ;D ;D Thanks for the response, always love a good Ron Swanson reference.

Whats the reason for the switch? You see more upside with PayPal?

Kicking myself one month later...who would have thought this was going to keep running?!

With how ridiculous IPO's have been it's becoming tempting to try and make some short term plays with a little bit of cash. Buy a few shares, ride the wave up and dump. Find value where it's at right? :P. I know as soon as I try this I'll get burnt. Looks like more Brk.B it is!

Is it a first mover? We've been ordering cat food and cat litter from Amazon for ages... Amazon has some 1st-party availability issues, but for the things it carries the prices are a bit cheaper than Chewy and shipping is free with Prime (vs $49 spend to get free shipping with Chewy). Chewy has only seen 9% net sales per active customer growth. Not sure if that can be called a great number but it does show some margin of customer "loyalty". The competition basically offers the same deal 30% off for subscribing, exclusive deals and of course free shipping. I'd imagine margin on pet food if low. And it certainly can't be cheap for these companies to front the shipping costs. Does the average consumer even know the difference between Petco, PetSmart and Chewy? Who owns who etc? I doubt it. As far as allegiance goes I bet customers stick with whoever they buy from first. Buying pet supplies is more like a utility payment than anything else. Out of sight out of mind. I don't think it's necessarily first mover that's important. More so first to acquire. Why else would these companies all be offering ridiculous discounts where they are probably losing money? It's all about getting people to sign up.

I get that you think Einhorn is an idiot, a point that has been repeated ad infinitum on this board in recent years. Do you have any actual thoughts on the point he's trying to make here? I thought the Pets.com-Chewy parallel was an interesting one. Of course Einhorn leaves out alot, like that Pets.com was nearly pre-revenue when it IPO'd. Chewy is an actual business. Pets.com was never much more than an idea. More broadly, I think the profitability of selling dog food on the internet is still an open question. Zooplus in Europe looks like it operates around break even. Even more broadly, I agree with Einhorn that many US companies seem priced for something close to perfection. For what it's worth, when I was at UPS I remember whenever the Chewy's contract came up for bid UPS pursued it hard. Dog food deliveries were (for UPS) high margin. Dense heavy product packed in a box as small as possible that was pretty much a recurring monthly shipment. Pet food deliveries were always increasing yoy. Again, from Chewy's perspective can it be profitable? I don't know. All I can say is, the demand seems to be there for the product and delivery service. Customers had nothing but good things to say about it. Women loved not having to pick up 50lb bags at the grocery store. Cat litter is also another big one.

My impression is that wide moat companies like MSFT, as well as Big Tobacco have actually done very well after being subject to intense regulatory scrutiny. Ditto for the Ma Bell breakup. I was wondering if anyone could think of any counterexamples.... Also, it has come to my attention that I neglected to finish giving this thread a title. Oops. I think this is exactly why FB is embracing and basically begging for govt regulation. It's easier to drive when you know the road ahead.

Now trading at 100x sales....truly incredible! Anyone think this will fall off a cliff once lockout expires in October? Or will the hysteria continue?

LOL...laughed way too hard at this. But I concur.

$MO - added a bit

there is no love in stock picking but there can be love in collecting. some of the best times I had with my pop was working on old land rovers. tangible objects can be the repositories of meaning and love...and maybe even money but who cares if you get your meaning/love well filled? Been a long time dream of mine to own an old Land Rover or Toyota Land Cruiser. For now I have to settle for my Tacoma.

Interesting article https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/17/foreign-purchases-of-american-homes-plunge-36percent-as-chinese-buyers-flee.html

It's also a historical index of your life events. It has symbolically replaced scrapbooks and baby albums (to an extent) The longer it has been established the harder it will be for people to leave all that behind. I think there is a sense of effort from the user perspective. The idea that you're building something to be able to look back on has value in and of itself. But let's not forget 2.5B active users....that number alone is insane.

I think the odds of Goggle, FB or Amazon getting broken up is slim to none. There are plenty of search alternatives out there (DuckDuckGo if you value privacy). When Zuck called out the government and openly asked them to regulate them it came across to me as an impossible challenge. I like Mark Cubans response. https://www.cnbc.com/video/2019/07/12/billionaire-mark-cuban-on-breaking-up-big-tech-facebook-and-more.html

I think you're underestimating Facebook and its importance to society. Smoking cigarettes is also unappealing to most smokers. Yet they are addicted and can't quit. The figure always changes, but it's something like 65ish% want to quit but don't. Not a perfect comparison as traditional cigarettes are declining. But Vaping is increasing. But I'm trying to highlight the addictive nature of FB and social media.