Castanza

This would do wonders to help people grow up. Personal sacrifice has taken the back seat to "me too" - to the detriment of the country. How do you strive for a tougher society when institutions are continually removing the toughness factor from everything. Gym class, Boy/Girl Scouts, everyone gets a trophy, lower military standards, the anti-traditional male propaganda, rapid decrease in person to person interaction, safe spaces, coaches getting fired for yelling at players, continual glorification of obesity, etc etc.

Much if the US power grid is 2nd world standard at best. Wooden poles leaning over until they fall down, transformers that look they are from the 60’s and high voltage lines strung and cobbled together are the norm. I list power last winter in an apartment I rented for a week. However on the plus side, electricity is fairly cheap compared to Europe when you get it. Most larger industrial facilities have multiple power connections for redundancy. Which just goes to show how massive infrastructure projects could easily increase productivity. Would be such an amazing positive economic investment. What is the US currently missing? The one thing I can think of is mobile network and wifi capability. But this is already really good. Especially when you think about how big the US is geographically. And in the high population areas access to these services is already good. Practically everything needs upgrading. A few examples in this thread. Another one: http://t4america.org/maps-tools/bridges/overview/ "68,842 bridges – representing more than 11 percent of total highway bridges in the U.S. – are classified as “structurally deficient,” according to the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA). Structurally deficient bridges require significant maintenance, rehabilitation or replacement. A number of bridges also exceed their expected lifespan of 50 years. The average age of an American bridge is 42 years." I get that, but the majority of those highways and bridges are still being used regardless. It's more about safety than efficiency. Now if we're talking about adding new routes and lanes sure I get the efficiency/productivity argument. It's like companies who are still running Windows 8. Yeah there is a better product available; but can you justify the cost with the marginal (arguably zero) productivity increase?

Much if the US power grid is 2nd world standard at best. Wooden poles leaning over until they fall down, transformers that look they are from the 60’s and high voltage lines strung and cobbled together are the norm. I list power last winter in an apartment I rented for a week. However on the plus side, electricity is fairly cheap compared to Europe when you get it. Most larger industrial facilities have multiple power connections for redundancy. Which just goes to show how massive infrastructure projects could easily increase productivity. Would be such an amazing positive economic investment. What is the US currently missing? The one thing I can think of is mobile network and wifi capability. But this is already really good. Especially when you think about how big the US is geographically. And in the high population areas access to these services is already good.

I share your long-term enthusiasm given the evolutionary (and cooperative) nature of humanity, despite the negativity and divisiveness that often oozes from online exchanges. The other day, I was discussing with my daughter (studies software engineering) and she was explaining how it was becoming possible to detect when an exchange was about to become abusive (previous behaviors, nature of the exchange, words used). This is quite similar to discussions around the dinner table but online exchanges lack non-verbal and other cues. Some people have tried to use bots during Twitter exchanges that would introduce empathic comments at opportune times and it seems to work quite well :) Also, in-group discipline and posts leading by example seem to be helpful. Back on topic, what is perhaps surprising is the relative low frequency of power outages given that the City That Never Sleeps sits on the oldest and largest underground network of electrical wiring and connections in the world with some of equipment (5 to 10%) dating from the 1880's, at a time when Edison himself was 'playing' with electricity and contributing to the debate about the direct and alternate current. Maybe the timing is good with ultra-low interest rates for major infrastructure upgrades but progress is being made as, a few years ago, Con Edison moved from reactive maintenance to preemptive or preventative maintenance using modern statistical tools and even machine learning in order to, for instance, predict where and when the next manhole fire or explosion will occur. But more work needs to be done. An interesting feature about the redundancy principle is the fact that the City of New York is presently negotiating a long-term electricity supply contract coming from hydro power in my jurisdiction. Of course, the political message is centered on the 'clean' energy aspect but diversification of inputs may also be helpful for secondary prevention of power outages and help the grid be great again. How does the frequency of outages NYC compare to other large cities? I guess it depends on how you look at the situation. If you're a civil engineer you're probably thinking "These people have no idea how messed up this system is and difficult it is to keep this city running." but the citizen is thinking. "Why can't the power company just do their job!"

I did spell it that way on purpose on case anyone was wondering :P But you are probably right. Media definitely exaggerates real life. But there certainly are differences. However some of those differences are for the better (racism). I think humanity and our ability to communicate in personal ways is going downhill. It seems like most people don't even know their neighbors. cAstanza

One of my favorite episodes of twilight zone is The Monsters Are Due on Maple Street and it hits on this theme. I have a home in the mountains so Im kinda use to prepping for things like this for longer times than normal as its not uncommon to have roads be block for extended amounts of time. The thing that scares me most about society today is the general lack of kindness or willingness to help. People during the depression for the most part tried to be respectable and held each other accountable. People back then seemed to work more for the collective. Sure, selfishness has always been a general theme of humanity, but today people are me me me me me. And we get small glimpses of this during natural disasters.

Yup the older cities in the US certainly have more issues. Especially as population grows. Philly is also a mess.

Not to derail the topic, but I was talking with my Grandfather about this blackout (Who was a kid/teen during the depression). He raised the question of what would it look like in these cities or heavily developed areas if we truly hit another depression. People are so reliant on modern day tech, systems, and processes. How many people still grow gardens or have any type of fallback for things like this? I love visiting cities as much as the next person. But I'm certainly glad my wife and I recently purchased 10 acres to build a house on. I'll get off my soap box now :P NYC does need to get their infrastructure in check. And this is coming from a Pennsylvanian :P

Costs of operations increased 14.7% to $628,370 for the year ended December 31, 2018 from $548,000 for the year ended December 31, 2017, which was attributable to increased production resulting from the strong demand levels. Overall, costs of operations as a percentage of net sales decreased from 89.1% for the year ended December 31, 2017 to 88.3% for the year ended December 31, 2018, primarily due to product mix and continued efforts to increase production efficiencies and monitor costs while meeting customer demand. You make a good point about margins. So far they have had to raise prices a bit to compensate for higher prices raw materials. But they have been able to pass this along to the consumer. Time will tell if the consumer reacts to these higher prices. I wouldn't find it out of the question to assume their competition is also experiencing similar margins. Perhaps the recent pullback is the market signaling some hesitation with this? It does make me feel a little more confident knowing non of their operating facilities are located in targeted tariff zones. But without a doubt some of their raw materials most likely come from areas which are experiencing tariffs. Management did state per 10k(their word) that they felt confident with their suppliers that they shouldn't see any major impact in the near future. They felt confidently hedged and diversified. But they also did say that their business if heavily cyclical. When the economy is growing they do well and when it takes a turn they do poorly (who doesn't?). It is interesting to see that auto repossessions have been climbing. This certainly can't be bad for business. But the extent of which it is good will take some more digging. At the end of the day it's just speculation (difficult to know who already owns wreckers etc.) https://alsresolvion.com/22-repo-industry-statistics-trends-analysis/ - Domestic sales have only grown 9% while International sales have grown 36% yoy. - No single customer accounted for 10% or more of consolidated net sales for 2018, 2017 and 2016. I like both of these metrics. Shows that they are actively expanding outside of their primary market (US) and have a nicely diversified customer portfolio.

Opened a small starter position. No analyst coverage Miller Industries Inc. specializes in the manufacturing, distribution and sales of towing equipment. They are the world’s largest manufacturer of Towing and Recovery equipment. They operate through the following brands (many best in class) Century, Vulcan, Challenger, Holmes, Champion, Chevron, Eagle, Titan, Jige, and Boniface. They have manufacturing facilities in Tennessee (headquarters), Pennsylvania, France, and the UK. They serve all 50 states, Canada, Mexico, Europe, Pacific Rim, Middle East, SA, and Africa. Recently have expanded to pursue contracts with military entities. Jige and Boniface are two companies (Fra and UK) which Miller has acquired and operates through. Have had a hard time finding any information on regarding these two companies. At surface level they seem best in class companies and a general good distribution network. They primarily sell through independent distributors. Per management “85% of our independent distributors choose to carry our products on an exclusive basis.” Product lines include wreckers ranging from 4-75 tons, car carriers, and transport trailers. They also sell parts and offer services to customers. Of the 80 distributors in North America, no single distributor accounts for more than 10% of sales. Management is confident in the backlog of sales and currently account for 5 months of backlogs. In short they manufacture the body and functionality of a wrecker to retrofit on pre-built chassis from 3rd party vendors. The only in-house manufacturing is the assembly of the hydraulics (obtained from 3rd party) and the bending of sheet metal to build the cab etc. Management has good standing with multiple suppliers and does not feel vulnerable or reliant on any single source of products. They have experienced no issues obtaining adequate supplies and raw materials, but have seen marginal increases in price of materials (which are passed on to customers). I believe this is part of the reason the stock is having a pullback. The towing industry is a very competitive industry but management feels they are well positioned and hold the top position and maintain strong relations with suppliers, distributors, and customers. Marketing is done primarily through commission sales reps who demonstrate the product to or at independent distributors. They also heavily market through trade shows by utilizing the distributors through this channel. They market primarily on the ideology of reputation and quality rather than price but they feel their products are regarded as best in class for their respective price points. They have recently began to pursue and bid on government contracts with local, state, and federal level organizations as well as military contracts. 1240 employees (non-union) except for the UK and French employees. Management has good standing with employees. Long standing CEO who has taken a below average salary (compared to industry) - Current Price: 30.91 - Market Cap: 342.29M - P/E: 9.71 - P/B: 1.48 - P/S: 0.46 - EBITDA: 6.67 (5 yr average 5.46) - 19M cash - 32.52M debt - Debt/Equity 2.27 - Tangible Book 33.63 (31ish without Goodwill) - P/IV .7ish (numbers varied slightly) - ROE: 16.12% - ROE: 1.53% yoy growth 4yr average - Diluted EPS: 3.13 - Owner’s earnings: 3.72 Revenue, profits, operating margin have all shown positive steady trends. Meanwhile debt has been decreasing. Need to do some more digging, but on the surface this seems like a good little company. Anyone else ever look at this?

Yeah, I agree with you that Castanza's post is all over the place. It conflates all sorts of different issues and games (Diablo Immortal hasn't even been released yet!) in ways that are not productive. The ATVI thread has lots of clear thinking on the video game industry in general. If it were up to me (and it's not) I would confine all video game related posts exclusively to that thread. Diablo Immortal is a huge disappointment before launch. They went against their entire player base by choosing to only launch it on mobile. That was my point. I recommend watching the Q&A. But if I'm wrong then I'm wrong. That's how I view the gaming industry and it's enough to keep me out of it.

You're quite unnecessarily snarky when discussing game publishers on this forum. I haven't claimed to be an authority in the gaming industry. Nor did I say the industry is dying...I said it's in a lull (sentiment and innovation wise). I think at some point $EA, $TTWO, $ATVI become attractive. But as with most entertainment industries, consumer sentiment does play a big role. I personally don't like investing in companies whos share price is heavily influenced by consumer sentiment. Most of the gaming stocks have been trading at pie in the sky valuations. They are only now approaching proper valuations (IMO) as their share price approaches what fundamentals might indicate. The "hype" is gone and the sentiment is absolutely affecting share price.

Discuss the video game industry as a whole. Consumer/company trends. Lots of stuff you got wrong in this reply... Free to play means consumers will hate it? 4 of the top 5 MOST PLAYED games in the US are free-to-play. In fact, only 3 of the top 10 are paid games at all. I see the statement all over this forum that F2P means loot boxes. It doesn't. League of Legends, Fortnite, CS GO, Dota 2 - all F2P and all monetized via cosmetic purchases, not loot boxes. And gamers love that stuff. Gaming industry seems highly fractured? Over the past ten years it's becoming increasingly consolidated, and likely will continue to consolidate as the gravity of the large publishers sucks in smaller publishers and dev teams. The top 10 publishers have almost 50% of the market share and that number is only increasing. Consumers are constantly disappointed with AAA releases? Red Dead Redemption 2 sold 24 million copies in like 6 months. God of War sold 10 million copies last year. There are some extremely highly anticipated games, some with new IP, coming in the next year or two (Cyberpunk, Death Stranding, Last of Us 2, etc). Frankly, sounds like you're just shooting from the hip on this response and haven't really done any work in the space. Fallout 76 Anthem The Division 2 Apex (dwindling) Watchdogs Starwars Battlefront 2 Destiny 2 Diablo Immortal Battlefield V Sea of Thieves Far Cry: New Dawn Assasins Creed whatever its called These games were also highly anticipated. EA has been developing Anthem since 2013 and it was pretty much dead in the water a month after release. EA earnings have been flat for 4 years. You named one or two successful games. You're also completely negating the relationship aspect between companies and consumers and dev teams. How many CEO's of gaming companies have we seen come out in opposition to their consumers the past two years? How many have we seen come out and admit their games were flops etc. How many issues have we seen between internal dev teams (acquired from elsewhere) and the company heads? Consumers are sick of the cash over quality mindset of the publishers. Releasing games before they are finished and then charging for DLC content that should have been included in the first place. Go On Twitch, YT, Reddit and all you will hear and see is negative sentiment (a bit anecdotal but still important). These platforms are quite important for advertising and generating interest. Yes there are successful games out there. Overwatch, LoL, Dota, etc. But I think you're missing the overall sentiment of the industry (and that's what I'm focusing on). Red Dead 2 launch was great and they sold 24 million copies but how did the stock do? It dropped like 11% on good news. Publishers seem like they are resting on hype of the old standby title names (FIFA is 40% rev for EA 2016). COD sales were pretty good and broke the downward trend we have been seeing since 2011. But that's most likely due to the battle royal approach (how long will that last?). If video game companies are doing so good why are they listing AAA games 50% off months after release? Franchise fatigue is real. Look at the stocks of these companies. They have been in free fall for awhile now. The question is are you comfortable buying at this level? I'm not. "Free to play.....meaning loot boxes and other in-game purchases"

Lots of stuff you got wrong in this reply... Free to play means consumers will hate it? 4 of the top 5 MOST PLAYED games in the US are free-to-play. In fact, only 3 of the top 10 are paid games at all. I see the statement all over this forum that F2P means loot boxes. It doesn't. League of Legends, Fortnite, CS GO, Dota 2 - all F2P and all monetized via cosmetic purchases, not loot boxes. And gamers love that stuff. Gaming industry seems highly fractured? Over the past ten years it's becoming increasingly consolidated, and likely will continue to consolidate as the gravity of the large publishers sucks in smaller publishers and dev teams. The top 10 publishers have almost 50% of the market share and that number is only increasing. Consumers are constantly disappointed with AAA releases? Red Dead Redemption 2 sold 24 million copies in like 6 months. God of War sold 10 million copies last year. There are some extremely highly anticipated games, some with new IP, coming in the next year or two (Cyberpunk, Death Stranding, Last of Us 2, etc). Frankly, sounds like you're just shooting from the hip on this response and haven't really done any work in the space. We probably should continue this discussion in another thread as not to clutter the Amazon one. http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/general-discussion/video-gaming-industry/

Constantly branching out and trying new things... Free to play.....meaning loot boxes and other in-game purchases.....further meaning consumers will hate it. Hopefully they think of a solution to this as $EA has been ripped to shreds over this. Not to mention the lawsuits they are incurring. LOTRO already exists and has a good following. Shadow of Middle Earth failed massively this past year. The Lord of the Rings series has been covered extensively across all gaming platforms. I wonder why they still think there is a market for this specific game? Player base seems highly fractured. Gaming in general is an industry I'm staying out of. Seems highly fractured and consumers are constantly disappointing with AAA releases. Reminds me a bit of 1983 video game crisis where everyone is putting out the next best game. You know there are issues when game makers are struggling to develop new themes and are instead preying on a now slightly older generations nostalgia from the early to mid 2000's for some quick sales. Until there is something truly new in the market I'll park my money elsewhere. But it's Amazon so who knows! Castanza

Sold to close Aug 16 $17.5 calls at 76% gain. Could be more upside but I couldn't pass up 76% gain in a matter of 15 days. Might buy in again if there is a pullback.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-07-07/deutsche-bank-launches-major-overhaul-with-8-3-billion-charges?utm_source=facebook&cmpid=socialflow-facebook-business&utm_content=business&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic

Is the “James Bond PPK” a special edition? If, not this is pretty mondäne pistol , as it was the police service pistol in many states in Germany. Its not even that great of a pistol. no idea, but I don’t think it’s worth more than $500 equivalent in Germany (gun market is small there however, due to small gun laws). Always been a Bond fan and bought one maybe a decade ago for about $750 USD. Not as an investment but just cuz. So your figures are probably right. Heard a couple years later the model was discontinued. Yup PPK is probably about $500-700 dollars. I used to have one in my collection. I don't think you can go wrong with guns and ammo as a collectible. If you buy quality and store them properly they almost always appreciate in value. I had about 10k rounds of discontinued ammo from wwi and wwii which enthusiasts love to get their hands on. Bought them wholesale awhile ago and since sold them off for about a 100% profit. I will say this.....guns and ammo will always be in demand (good times and bad times.) A good friend of mine is a really big sports memorabilia collector. He does a ton of business on eBay, and is quite the entrepreneur. Still remember him back in 8th grade buying and selling autographed collectibles from his blackberry. Ended up paying for his college and has gone on to do some good things! He actually hooked me up with two autographed footballs from Saquon Barkley on official NFL balls. Needless to say I've become a Giants (already a Penn State fan) fan.

Curious is anyone on here invests in other types of assets. Artwork, collectible automobiles, guns & ammo, wines, antiques, etc? What are your views on the markets for said assets? Why do or don't you invest in these types of assets? Side: I couldn't find a post regarding the topic, but feel free to point it out if there is one.

I'm sure the British thought the Patriots/Rebels were lefties when they sought independence...thank goodness for lefties! Cheers! No one is stopping them from leaving and colonizing somewhere else! Most of the lefties run all of the tech companies...you would be left with only Twitter. And you would have nothing to ever watch again on television other than Fox News and 100 Huntley. Cheers! 1.) The British were the lefties. The Patriots were escaping socialistic policies 2.) The world would gladly move on without Google or Twitter. It's funny that all of these "crucial" software companies built their products in the most capitalistic free market system. But indeed, a day to reflect on the history of this very young nation. All of the sacrifice, hard work, human ingenuity, and progress. Only a handful of generations ago it was formed and she is no doubt a work in progress. It will be interesting to see where we end up in 50 years! Happy belated birthday!

That's not how the world works. EVs are on a trajectory to become cheaper than ICE vehicles. If EVs take over in the richer countries, it'll make oil cheaper for poorer countries. It's easier to build an electricity distribution network (because you need it anyway for residential, commercial, and industrial purposes) than to build a gasoline distribution network. Poor countries tend to leapfrog richer countries because they are starting from zero and can go directly to the new thing, they don't have huge sunk costs in the old technology (see mobile phones, micro-payments, etc). Why would the price of gas drop? If there is no demand in rich countries companies aren't going to produce it....Comparing cell phone adoption to cars is apples to oranges. A cell phone network is arguably far easier to implement. These countries are already reliant on Diesel fuel. How exactly do you go about making the transition when their labor intensive economies are highly dependent upon transportation? Where exactly do they get the money to make this transition and how will EV's be economical enough? I just got back from visiting my family in Laos. Spent some time in Thailand as well. There is noway in hell these people will have EV's any time soon. The majority of them rely on 4x4s and dirt bikes. Not to mention a diesel vehicle is arguably easier to maintain in these living conditions. It's hard for me to picture EV mechanics in these locations.

I actually do agree that Tesla-like EVs have a very good shot at becoming mainstream. However it will likely take some time for the world to get there (the infrastructure needs to develop, people need to change their minds/habits, ...), and that process may take longer than Tesla can remain solvent. Have you ever been to Africa? South East Asia? South America? Middle East (not that one)? I have, and these people hardly have access to clean water and electricity. I find it hard to believe that they will have a fully integrated EV charging network (solar or not) let alone the ability to afford these vehicles in the next decade or 2 for that matter. I will say the benefit is they don't even have basic utilities to begin with. So at least the engineers (whoever they might be :P) have a blank canvas to work with. If modern societies move away from oil and gas what happens to the prices in these already desolate countries? If production drops and governments get involved pushing against oil and gas then you can only imagine the A.) subsidies to help these countries or B.) The insane cost of fuel for these poor people. I don't see any plans for nuclear power in Africa.

Yes, that's a big part of the bear case. The Q1 numbers provided some evidence of this in the US, and I think it's reasonable to expect something similar to happen abroad over the next few quarters. The infrastructure problem I think will get better over time but the problem for Tesla is that they will likely face tougher competition over time as well. The Prius, in its early years, is a car that attracted a niche audience because it felt compromised and weird, and people overlooked that because of other benefits. Teslas aren't in that category. They are perceived to be premium and they perform better than gasoline vehicles. Not the same dynamic at all, IMO. There are certainly a lot of problems with the company, but having products that only EV early adopters and environmentalists are interested in certainly isn't high on the list. When the Prius came out it was definitely considered a premium item. Every rich person who owned a Hummer went out and bought a Prius. Not to mention every tech CEO chose to drive one. It certainly was a status item. I'm not saying Tesla is exactly like a Prius, but it certainly has similarities. That's exactly why they launched the Model 3. I bet the percentage of people who are buying them simply out of "coolness factor" is a lot less than the people who "care about the environment." And to be fair, this could shift. I'm not saying it wont. On the contrary, you see the younger generation preach about protecting the environment. Yet I'd be willing to bet my life on it that Jeep Wranglers are near the top when it comes to millennial sales. For every 10,000 young girls between the ages of 17-28 wearing Lululemon, drinking Starbucks, and driving a fully modded off-road Jeep Wrangler (to go shopping) I could show you maybe 1 girl who drives a Tesla. Jeeps aren't exactly environmentally friendly. Same goes for all those Subaru Crosstrek girls. I think people care about looking like they care about the environment. For some reason the younger generation has it backwards when it comes to vehicles. They think a vehicle that is outdoor oriented means outdoor friendly or something.

The general market still sees Tesla as a luxury item. I think once we get by the demand from tech savvy people or people genuinely interested in EV's and "sustainability" we will see a large decline. I think it's difficult to get people to understand the fueling process of Tesla. I always hear the questions from average people discussing where or how to charge it. If Tesla installs a charging station at your house etc. I think it comes across as a hassle to the average person. Kind of like having the cable company come over to setup your box. Not to mention I bet there are a lot of people who don't want a charging station at their house simply for the look, space dedication, or lack of space for one. All that being said, I think infrastructure will be the largest hindrance to demand.

Picked up some MSG too this AM at~$271. I am not sure what caused the sudden downdraft , but noticed that MSGN is doing even worse, is this team related? The Brooklyn Nets just signed a few super stars that will likely draw crowds there. Could possibly have something to do with that. I imagine, Durant and Irving will draw quite the crown in NY. It's been awhile since there was a true NBA superstar in the city. That being said, I'm long MSG. The Knicks are too iconic and so is the stadium. MSG is to America what the Colosseum was to Rome. https://gothamist.com/2019/07/01/kevin_durant_kyrie_irving_headed_to.php