Castanza

Not to take this off topic, and this may be a dumb question! But how does the trade war affect non-mainland Chinese ports? I know China has been on a "shopping spree" the past 5 years buying up ports all over the globe. They basically own Greece by sea at this point. You would think there might be some type of ripple affect to Chinese owned assets downstream. Just spitballing :P

That always happens though in the maturing of the cycle. As rates move higher, lenders can accept more defaults and still end with the same, or higher, income due to the higher rates. Riskier loans means defaults get higher even if the economy is strong. It's not to say that there's nothing to worry about, but you can't just look at the data in a vacuum like that. I mean I get your point, but I'm not only looking at that data. I was just adding it to the mix. No defaults on cars probably wont bring down the economy. But If we hit a recession it will have some big implications. Especially when you look at how inflated used car prices are and how over saturated the market is. You have used pickups with 200k miles on them selling for 6-8k less than a new one. If we hit a recession, I think the auto industry will be one of the first to take a dive. It's also worth noting that if your willing to take out a risky loan on a 70k vehicle then that lack of financial aptitude probably carries over into other aspects of your life.

Dead link, deserves a bump? https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20190122005513/en/Elliott-Management-Sends-Letter-Board-Directors-eBay 75-100% upside is a rather bold claim. Are you buying it? It's not going to be a small feat to restructure management and re-adjust their algorithms to make sellers happy. Thanks, I get excited about things but have a mandatory 7 day cooling off period. --- Food for downside thought from Zacks: Reasons To Sell: Mounting competition from Amazon and Alibaba, increasing investments and a weak global economy are major overhangs. E-commerce, with a large user base worldwide, has turned out to be a sweet spot with more and more companies jumping into the area and further intensifying the competitive scenario. eBay’s core business faces tough competition from Amazon, Alibaba, Etsy and Facebook. Recently, Facebook rolled out Facebook Marketplace that allows users to buy and sell items within their local communities. Lack of appropriate counter strategies could be a matter of worry in the long run. eBay dependence on Google for driving traffic is a cause for worry in more ways than one. First, Google makes changes to its algorithms that at times affect traffic to its site (for example the Panda 4.0 update). Second, Google is becoming more of a marketplace itself through its product listing ads and Buy buttons. And while eBay can compete for those, it could have the effect of increasing its costs, since the slots are limited and competition high. Moreover, Facebook is opening store fronts within its app, making it easier for consumers to purchase rather than through a separate eBay app, thus making deeper penetration much more difficult. eBay could have its own store there too, but this could ultimately raise costs again and impact its brand value. There remains a concern about eBay’s increased investment in overall platform technology and slower growth rate compared to its peers. Furthermore, eBay’s growth continues to suffer due to a weak world economy. The company is heavily dependent on countries outside the U.S for its transaction and Internet sales. Although the U.S. is flourishing, emerging economies are slowing down. So a weak global economy remains a major headwind. I don't see Amazon or Alibaba as competition. I think eBay fills a unique niche market. One thing that nobody is talking about that gives eBay and advantage is the fact that they do not ship their own items. I know this might sound crazy as Amazon is pursuing this, but as someone who has worked in the logistics industry for a decent period of time I can tell you pricing fraud is rampant and it wreaks havoc on companies bottom line. Let me explain this in more detail. I sold something on eBay the other week. I went on USPS website to create a label. Didn't realize my printer was out of paper, so I ran down to the post office instead. When they weighed my package they were going to charge me $25 to ship it from coast to coast standard shipping. But that same label I created online was $6 shipping. I naturally took my box, walked out the door, went to Walmart picked up paper, printed out my label and then dropped my box off at the local post office without an issue. Now where does this discrepancy come from. Well I looked up the item weight and used that. The post office weighs the entire box etc. Point being, most eBay sellers simply put 1 lb for most packages and call it a day. USPS (and everyone else) is loosing a ton of money because of this. At UPS I remember they were always restructuring the contract with Amazon because they kept shipping boxes with inaccurate weights and unnecessary box sizes for the product they contained. All of these companies have tried to come up with ways in which to audit and correct these issues. But once that package gets past the first "check point", it's more expensive to try and ship it back. It seems like it wouldn't be that hard to enforce, but it is. Because you have to balance customer convenience and happiness. Most places you can just drop them off in a drop box and someone will pick it up later in the day. That package then gets brought to a center, put on a trailer, and then shipped to a larger hub (generally Louisville in UPS case). It takes too much time and resources to audit every single one. So the advantage eBay has is they don't care if UPS, USPS, or FedEx are getting ripped off on shipping rates. But Amazon will be shooting themselves in the foot if they ship their own boxes without a solution to this issue. This is just another reason why targeting the residential/non-bulk stops is suicide. I don't think you can scale it to profitability with a new algorithm or routing software. And if they pressure customers to be more accurate and pay more you can be damn sure those customers will take their business elsewhere. It's a loose loose in my opinion. You just can't accurately enforce this without it being a large customer (Target, Petco, etc). Not to mention Amazon has to keep that 2 day, now 1 day shipping promise. I weigh & measure each item (in the packaging) & put the data into each listing. Saves a bunch on shipping & makes printing & fulfillment very easy. I also like the fact that eBay doesn't compete with their sellers like Amazon. I'm ignoring the Elliott price targets & simply focusing on a durable business with potential catalysts. You may do that, but many don't. I'm just saying it's an issue that eBay doesn't have to worry about. Logistics is all about weight, size, and bulk. Amazon will struggle with this down the road.

Dead link, deserves a bump? https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20190122005513/en/Elliott-Management-Sends-Letter-Board-Directors-eBay 75-100% upside is a rather bold claim. Are you buying it? It's not going to be a small feat to restructure management and re-adjust their algorithms to make sellers happy. Thanks, I get excited about things but have a mandatory 7 day cooling off period. --- Food for downside thought from Zacks: Reasons To Sell: Mounting competition from Amazon and Alibaba, increasing investments and a weak global economy are major overhangs. E-commerce, with a large user base worldwide, has turned out to be a sweet spot with more and more companies jumping into the area and further intensifying the competitive scenario. eBay’s core business faces tough competition from Amazon, Alibaba, Etsy and Facebook. Recently, Facebook rolled out Facebook Marketplace that allows users to buy and sell items within their local communities. Lack of appropriate counter strategies could be a matter of worry in the long run. eBay dependence on Google for driving traffic is a cause for worry in more ways than one. First, Google makes changes to its algorithms that at times affect traffic to its site (for example the Panda 4.0 update). Second, Google is becoming more of a marketplace itself through its product listing ads and Buy buttons. And while eBay can compete for those, it could have the effect of increasing its costs, since the slots are limited and competition high. Moreover, Facebook is opening store fronts within its app, making it easier for consumers to purchase rather than through a separate eBay app, thus making deeper penetration much more difficult. eBay could have its own store there too, but this could ultimately raise costs again and impact its brand value. There remains a concern about eBay’s increased investment in overall platform technology and slower growth rate compared to its peers. Furthermore, eBay’s growth continues to suffer due to a weak world economy. The company is heavily dependent on countries outside the U.S for its transaction and Internet sales. Although the U.S. is flourishing, emerging economies are slowing down. So a weak global economy remains a major headwind. I don't see Amazon or Alibaba as competition. I think eBay fills a unique niche market. One thing that nobody is talking about that gives eBay and advantage is the fact that they do not ship their own items. I know this might sound crazy as Amazon is pursuing this, but as someone who has worked in the logistics industry for a decent period of time I can tell you pricing fraud is rampant and it wreaks havoc on companies bottom line. Let me explain this in more detail. I sold something on eBay the other week. I went on USPS website to create a label. Didn't realize my printer was out of paper, so I ran down to the post office instead. When they weighed my package they were going to charge me $25 to ship it from coast to coast standard shipping. But that same label I created online was $6 shipping. I naturally took my box, walked out the door, went to Walmart picked up paper, printed out my label and then dropped my box off at the local post office without an issue. Now where does this discrepancy come from. Well I looked up the item weight and used that. The post office weighs the entire box etc. Point being, most eBay sellers simply put 1 lb for most packages and call it a day. USPS (and everyone else) is loosing a ton of money because of this. At UPS I remember they were always restructuring the contract with Amazon because they kept shipping boxes with inaccurate weights and unnecessary box sizes for the product they contained. All of these companies have tried to come up with ways in which to audit and correct these issues. But once that package gets past the first "check point", it's more expensive to try and ship it back. It seems like it wouldn't be that hard to enforce, but it is. Because you have to balance customer convenience and happiness. Most places you can just drop them off in a drop box and someone will pick it up later in the day. That package then gets brought to a center, put on a trailer, and then shipped to a larger hub (generally Louisville in UPS case). It takes too much time and resources to audit every single one. So the advantage eBay has is they don't care if UPS, USPS, or FedEx are getting ripped off on shipping rates. But Amazon will be shooting themselves in the foot if they ship their own boxes without a solution to this issue. This is just another reason why targeting the residential/non-bulk stops is suicide. I don't think you can scale it to profitability with a new algorithm or routing software. And if they pressure customers to be more accurate and pay more you can be damn sure those customers will take their business elsewhere. It's a loose loose in my opinion. You just can't accurately enforce this without it being a large customer (Target, Petco, etc). Not to mention Amazon has to keep that 2 day, now 1 day shipping promise.

Dead link, deserves a bump? https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20190122005513/en/Elliott-Management-Sends-Letter-Board-Directors-eBay 75-100% upside is a rather bold claim. Are you buying it? It's not going to be a small feat to restructure management and re-adjust their algorithms to make sellers happy.

Retire by my mid 40's so I can spend my time working in the ecology sector doing what I enjoy instead of mashing keys all day behind a desk; all without worrying about 100k+ income (preferably make that up in divy's) Decent house (with a few acres for a vineyard or hops) paid off and maybe 1-2 rental properties probably back near my hometown and family. Cabin in Montana (With all the fly fishing gear I want) Sea worthy sailboat (Preferably a Catamaran but I'd settle for less :P) Full fledged dedicated woodshop ability to travel a few times a year (preferably on my sail boat) Independence and a nest egg for my future kids children. ___________________________________________________ I'm a simple man, not into cars, clothes, or being in big cities permanently. Guess I'm a bit of an old soul.

Reminds me a bit of the book "Better Angles" by Steve Pinker. Premise: The world is the least violent it has ever been, contrary to what media and people assume. However, it's difficult for me to see value in Illinois because of all the pension and govt related issues. Even with a 30 year horizon it's difficult to justify. Look how long Detroit has been going downhill. Even if Illinois makes the right decisions and economic slowdown or recession could halt all efforts for a decade or more.

Subprime auto loans and defaults are also worth keeping an eye on. Strange how these rates are climbing in a relatively "good" economy with good jobs numbers.

Partially OT. If someone does a snowbird thing or just plans to live in one place more than couple months a year, AirBnB probably is not great. Also if they want to setup their house/place the way they like with their things/books/etc. OTOH, IMO upkeep is a hassle and that's why I would not want to have multiple houses and would go with frommi approach. 8) Multiple Condos with once a month maid service 8)

I've made some decent money the past few years shorting Ford. I've been following the subprime auto loan storm that's brewing but its quite difficult to come up with any time-frame which would help to establish any LEAP short positions. I haven't heard of Daniel Ruiz, thanks for sharing.

The regenerative braking in EV's drastically reduces the wear on the braking system. So does engine braking in gasoline and diesel engines. Most trucks and SUV's have this feature nowadays. I'm not saying EV's won't be reliable, but you know damn well they will be way more expensive to repair until the supply and demand of qualified techs can catch up. I mean have you ever had a sensor or a computer chip go out in regular cars today? Crazy expensive, and everything is modular nowadays. SO you generally have to get a whole "unit" replaced instead of a specific part.

Any news or opinions on this? Seems to have bottomed out around $32. Premiums are a tad steep, and I think some news would be worth waiting for, but some 2021 LEAPS are looking more and more attractive as this $32 bottom continues to solidify. Opinions? https://seekingalpha.com/news/3462872-kraft-heinz-confirms-accounting-delay

"However, some experts point out that expert systems were not part of true artificial intelligence since they lack the ability to learn autonomously from external data." It's funny that whenever we get a system to do things that computers could never do before we declare that it isn't "real" AI and we move the goal post further back. To some "real" AI won't be achieved until artificial systems can think, think about thinking, feel, love, hate, fear, not want to die .... I think it's more people are skewing what AI really is making factitious claims. It's no different than these companies that claim they've built an atomic computer. I don't think the definition of AI has ever changed and I don't think we should change it to meet technological short comings. All we are doing is processing more data faster. It can give the appearance of Intelligence, but is it truly intelligent?

"However, some experts point out that expert systems were not part of true artificial intelligence since they lack the ability to learn autonomously from external data."

That's not AI. That's a static deterministic model using ML algorithms within a bound set of inputs. AI can take inputs outside of the bounds and return a probability factor based on confidence. If-then or if-else based models are purely deterministic and only operate within the bounds of inputs determined by the programmers. Boiled down it's basically a decision tree with integrated ML. If you want to call that AI, fine haha but it's not "true" AI.

Saw this posted on Yahoo Finance comment section. Seems quite speculative but much more detailed than the typical comments on there. Anyone have any insights or opinions on the below thesis? "Has Musk already had a "margin call" on some of his borrowing-against his TSLA shares? In October of last year, as Tesla's stock broke down to new lows, Musk started shopping for some super-jumbo mortgages on the mansions he owns. He was able to borrow around $50 million against those homes in December. Was he doing that borrowing to pay off some of his loans collateralized with TSLA shares? For the first time in years, Musk had a small reduction (relatively speaking) in the number of shares he's using as collateral for his borrowing. We only get an update on the shares being used as collateral once a year (in a small footnote in the proxy materials for the annual meeting); little additional information is available to the public-shareholders about this borrowing -- even though, about 40% of Musk's TSLA-holdings are pledged as collateral for his borrowing, and the company specifically names this borrowing as a risk-factor that could -- if Musk defaults on the loans -- negatively affect the share-price. In 2018 Musk had 13,774,897 shares pledged as collateral in these loans; in 2019 we now see he has 13,394,056 shares pledged as collateral -- that's a reduction of about 380,000 shares he's using as collateral. The stock price recovered after it hit its lows in October; if the investment banks (who know all the terms of this borrowing, even while the public-shareholder is "in the dark") knew Musk was shopping for mortgages -- and there would be a pay-off on the loans Musk had likely gone into technical default on -- they would have been able to trade on this information -- they'd even "control it" if they were a lender in the mortgage deals as they could alter the terms giving Musk time on when payments would be due. Musk is wealthy on-paper, due to the large number of TSLA shares that have been given to him as part of his compensation package, but has little in the way of liquid assets. I think it's likely at least some of the money he's borrowed recently was used to pay off a tranche of debt he's taken out using TSLA shares as collateral."

Hear, hear! People (and I) may be concerned of buying a Tesla and company going BK on us. But there's as much concern IMO on traditional automakers giving half assed support (or pretty much none in reality) to their electric models that they produce, sell in hundreds (not hundred Ks), and then discontinue. I might not buy Tesla, but I won't buy a poor cousin EV from traditional automaker either. I can agree with this perspective. Tesla really does have a superior product and the rest of the industry is content to half-ass their innovation. But this still won't make me an investor. Can anyone think of any companies in the past which have been expected to go bankrupt like Tesla that beat the odds and managed to become successful profitable companies?

This just reinforces the idea that a good product or service does not always translate into a good sound company in which to invest.

That seems quite "ballsy." How large of position did you take if I might ask?

I don't understand these drivers complaining about money. I mean, I have never seen Uber advertised as a full-time job. Commercials always show it as additional income when you have a few hours to spare. I drove for them while in college and some nights when my wife worked 3rd shift as a nurse. I was quite happy to have some "beer" money in college. If anything these people should be thankful Uber exists. It facilitates everything for them and gives them a platform to make some extra income. Nobody is forcing them to drive for Uber and they could go out and start their own private taxi service if they really wanted (my neighbor used to do with for a local Judge...made out pretty good). Society needs to stop trying to push these supplemental income jobs as careers. Bagging groceries, flipping burgers and driving for Uber isn't a career. We need to hold firm to this conviction, because out of necessity comes change. People will learn this and adapt if needed. Fun fact: also paid for the entirety of my honeymoon by donating plasma in college. But that's a story for another time.

Opinions on Chris Hughes (FB co-founder) calling for FB to be broken up? Former Twitter COO Ali Rowghani agrees. https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/09/opinion/sunday/chris-hughes-facebook-zuckerberg.html

Between poor management, a stretch of poor manufacturing, AMD eating their lunch in the cloud/data center space, Qualcomm besting them in mobile chips........When does this become attractive to you? I've been wanting to take a position in this for awhile, but they have too many issues right now. 10nm would be big if they could roll it out (been delayed since late 15). But even that won't "fix" any of these issues.

Can't think of any pure online companies that are doing this. Personally, I don't see this taking off. Most online retailers use USPS for last mile delivery as it stands now. If I might ask, why are you interested specifically in this? interested?

http://clarkstreetvalue.blogspot.com/2019/03/howard-hughes-updated-thoughts-2019.html A good read on HHC.

Not that this exactly relate to the types of assents Brookfield owns, but I know in New Orleans, housing market prices are up 46% since Katrina. And that city is built below sea level. https://blog.firstam.com/economics/what-the-post-katrina-real-estate-market-can-tell-us-about-hurricane-harveys-impact-on-houston I will say that Florida, particularly Miami is a bit different as the geology there is terrible. The bedrock is sightly below the surface and happens to be a type of limestone (dolomite). When dolomite is exposed to cold ocean water it dissolves over time. Add salt to the mix and this increases the corrosion rate quite significantly. Having a bit of a geologic background (two years in college) it's quite amazing that civil engineers continue to build on these poor foundations. I specifically remember a professor of mine talking about this. I mean, it's already evident with the plethora of sinkholes found there. Will it deter people? no idea. People seem to live in the moment. Another area that is/will be plagued by this is Southern Indian, Northern Kentucky, and Southwestern Ohio along the Ohio River. Pretty much the entire mid-west sits on dolomite about 8ft below the ground with rich topsoil on top (all from the glacial boundary during the Ice Age). Again, not quite sure if this info is significant or not; but there you have it. Regards