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cayale

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  1. Yes, currently trading at 52x trailing sales, according to WSJ.
  2. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think that materially changes the equation, does it?
  3. I think the context of Buffett's comment was more to say that you find a really good business and sit on your ass. Not sure you can buy ZINC, GM, FCAU, CHK, PKX and sit on your ass. It also doesn't imply that you can sit on your ass and find a good business. It takes a lot of work to find what makes a business great and understand why you're getting it at a good price. You buy stuff like ZINC or GM and you constantly have to sleep with one eye open. Not that it's necessarily bad but it's not something you step away and ignore the stock quote for weeks at a time. I mean FCAU has had lots of good news and the stock keeps going down. Isn't that helpful as an investor to know that good news is hurting your stock, perhaps means your thesis is priced in? I recall Pabrai saying that FCAU would be worth 3x where it is today after the RACE spin but here we are and it hasn't happened; it's actually dropped a lot. What's the market telling Pabrai? Is he just going to ignore that because short term prices don't matter? Which brings me to the other Pabrai philosophy of not looking at market prices all the time. What's wrong with looking at market prices all the time? You shouldn't let it affect your judgement but it's probably in your interest to know where things you would like to buy or sell are trading. Obviously every second of the day is useless, but I think these guys pull the Buffett commentary to a weird extreme. I bet you Buffett knows where IBM trades throughout the day while not being completely glued to the screen. Could be wrong though, haven't read that 1990 letter in a while. But there's this whole "do as Buffett does but not as he says" and some of the things Pabrai tries to emulate are probably not the things you want to take too seriously. Well said!
  4. The shares were down ~15% on Thursday, the day in question.
  5. Me thinks that Ruane Cuniff blew out its whole position yesterday.
  6. Yes, but the overall theme thus far is judging Pabrai's investment track record to the likelihood of this investment paying off. The company's situation is quite simple, as you described. But the psychology and fear in the market are making people come up with these crazy "I told you so" and "comparison of track record" remarks that deviate from the underlying investment. You make an investment today, you are paying under $250 million for a pretty good solid moat businesses. Last friday it was $500 million. You mean to tell me in one week, after all that has been going on, the company is now 50 cents cheaper and people are afraid to buy? Well then...looks like I'm buying hands over fist Monday morning to establish a decent size position. BTW, I'm a minnow small time investor, so hands over fist means one buy order to the tune of how many more shares can I buy without drinking this weekend. No dog in this fight, but isn't this a question of liquidity, solvency and dilution over one of value? The value may be there; it's simply that buyers today may have to hand pieces of it over to senior positions in the capital structure and/or buyers of new shares. If that occurs, current common shareholders cannot count on having much leverage in those negotiations.
  7. Swiss Franc, Danish Krone and/or Euro
  8. Folks, an uncle of mine lives in Switzerland, is a retail investor, and wants to find a mutual fund that adheres to value principles (good businesses, strong balance sheets, reasonable prices, etc.), with the intent of buying about 5000 francs a month and cost averaging in over a period of years. Is there a low fee way to access this? I'll research the funds for him but don't know if there are discount brokers, if there are good funds available to retail investors or if we can find something that invests with a focus on his functional currencies as opposed to USD. If Switzerland is not an option, access through Denmark would work, too. Thanks for any recommendations!
  9. Wells Fargo didn't need the cash. They were forced to take it.
  10. Exactly. And it seems managements always wait too long to pull the rip cord, thereby ensuring even greater dilution.
  11. I did too, so for today I picked out some Blanche de Chambly. A nice unfiltered wheat bear made by a company outside of Montreal. Not a big fan of white beers, but this one hits the spot once in a while. La fin du monde is one of my all time favorites. I'm drinking rye Manhattans, with antica vermouth, bbq smoke and angostura bitters and luxardo cherries. And with stock prices where they are I'm drinking more than one.
  12. Thoughts? I admire your punmanship.
  13. "Everybody has a plan, 'til they get punched in the mouth" - Mike Tyson
  14. It's a big position of mine, but here are some concerns: 1. Salix is further afield than previous acquisitions in terms of reimbursement. No aspect of it is cash pay. Are they reaching for growth when they previously did not? 2. The restructuring and synergies associated with the Salix deal are not all Salix; there are VRX elements in there. So yes, technically, "one-time" costs went away, but just barely; because they just came back, internally, with the announcement of the Salix deal. Is this really one time, or is it financial engineering? 3. On the surface, it looks like they are paying a higher pro-forma multiple for Salix than they did for Bausch. Are they reaching on price where they previously did not?
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