Mitch07

Yes I suspect the estate may tender some shares. They did last time. They tendered 1.7M class B shares which something like 40% were bought back.

Clearly the company looks to be winding down a 20M share float considering 6M or so is owned by the WDL trust. Either privatization or an easy take out candidate could be in the cards. (only speculation on my part)

With $40M they will be able to buy back 6,153,846 shares @ $6.50 Leaving the company with a little less than 20M shares total between A's and B's.

I would not say it's bullish. The company stock price seems to trail it's cash position. No value has ever been given to the assets or future cash flow. After the huge SIB the stock retraced lower and we back trading at cash/bond. Looking forward to seeing if the company will accommodate it's shareholders and have a virtual annual meeting. A few key concerns or comments going forward that would be interesting to know: re:Class A shares any chance of having those bought out or redeemed some how. Clearly there is a disconnect as the class A shares control the company. The class A have a minimal count vs the B's and are now controlled by the estate. No institutional buyers will look this company up if they can't have any say. re: SIB Huge demand for an exit by shareholders. Generation who was the only major institutional investor wanted out and put all of their shares on the offering. Negative sentiment. re: License extension If a license extension is not in the plans or not likely can the company not reduce their cost in various workovers which added to $80M from now until 2026 (based on their Jan 24/20 NR). Seems like a huge chunk of cash to put forward, essentially a years revenue. re: Dividend increase.

Always nice to see insider buys. The NCIB has also picked up 50K shares in the past 3 days. Can we expect a Virtual AGM this year?

Nice to see the NCIB modified. A slight bump to the dividend even by only a penny would also be nice. Looks as though Orca's largest shareholder other than the trust Generation PCMA (previously Trapeze) had looked at looked at tendered all their shared. They had been a long term holder going back to Pan Ocean. Not a big positive.

Feb 25 release the company had in cash and short term bonds $141.6 million (US) they spent $37.5 million (US) on the buy back. Leaving them with about $104.1 million (US) $104,100,000/26,615,455 shares left outstanding = $3.91 per share (US) I was using the CAD exchange rate on that day which was .69 I believe. Using todays exchange rate .715 it would be closer to $5.47 CAD per share

Using todays exchange rate, there is about $5.60 Canadian cash per share while trading at $3.90. With over $100MUSD in cash plenty of room to up the dividend or kick start another aggressive buy back though the combination of the small float and additional buy backs we are almost looking at a privatization scenario.

Buybacks sure would be useful in this market.

The tender was largely oversupplied as 11M shares were sent back. Shareholders are either spooked with the markets ( rightfully so) or they aren't in line with where the management is leading the company and want out. The YE results that were released on February 25th were very strong as expected. Still more than plenty of cash, do they look at an additional buyback? RE: A shares. Very odd. It looks as though TD has been on the bid and buy of the A's. (though little volume) TD has also been the only major buyer in the B shares of late.

Based on the results of the tender, Swala was right that it had a large number of shareholders wanting the sale to go through.

Orca class A shares $17 bid? Why would you want to pay almost 3x the price for the B class

I gather the beneficiaries of the estate may want some cash. Another possibility is that Shaymar may want to invest some cash outside of PAET.

The estate of Mr. Lyons will be tendering 1.7M shares. Which accounts to about 1/4 of the potential share buyback depending on price etc. Not great to see though I understand the reasoning behind it.

Correct. I believe you should be fine. Being a Canadian the Orca dividend is considered a foreign dividend for me as the company is not Canadian. I would also expect the range for the buy back to be between $7.25-$7.50 which would mean about 6.7M-6.8M shares if fully used. The company sure didn't mince words with respect to Swala.