prevalou

Disck Market cap is not $ 6,4 B

https://www.manhattan-institute.org/html/tesla-and-solar-city-merger-rooted-battery-derangement-syndrome-9026.html this article shows why electric cars will be a luxury for a long time. and EV s nedd maintenance too... https://www.tesla.com/support/maintenance-plans

The question is : where are the bad loans ? Since the last crisis banks are very careful on their exposure. Even bad loans at italian banks are overcollateralized.

Actually it's 7%-8% through dividends and shares repurchases +growth (part of earnings reinvested)

https://skift.com/2016/05/05/tripadvisors-instant-booking-bet-looks-ugly-for-now/ People prefer the real thing (booking on Booking.com where they have an account) and so don't click on IB. Before they clicked on metasearch, so loss in revenue.

I think there is a bit of truth this, the problem is psychological. There no confidence in anything anymore? China, no. Europe, was there ever. Oil, look at a chart. Real Estate/Housing, look at where the GSEs are. Ive heard 3-4 guys say we are heading for Japan (Munger, Summners, Marks), Pick a US State... its in budget crisis....Simple things is you cant count on the old things any more and when you do that you stop making out lays of capital and start.....and thats just the financial side of things. Forget the rest of the worries that have always existed in a similar form or another. From what gather and the musings online and such....I dont know why Yellen keeps doing the same shit quarter in and quarter out....pull your reliever he got you out of the jam already. The Brexit thing by itself seems trivial....compounded with the rest its no wonder investors flee to bonds and bond like investments......I have no proof but I suspect that never normalizing policy(in any country) after risk of true collapse receded harmed confidence a great deal....Yellen is fighting the last war. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-06-15/deutsche-bank-if-one-wanted-simple-indicator-broken-financial-system-then-it That chart makes teh Third Reich look like a better investment enviornment than Germany today....just saying. Edit: assuming bond yeads are and indicator investor sentiment and during these hard times, Buffett accumulates PSX and maybe other investments...

I have struck through the items that aren't really R&D. Other companies would label this category as "operating expenses". The biggest cost seems to be the depreciation of servers and other hardware. Again, I don't think it is accidental that they used the phrase "technology costs consist principally of research and development activities" and then went on to describe activities that aren't R&D. They want you to treat operating expenses as if they are R&D. -- This would be the best available estimate of the "real" R&D expense. certainly AWS was created ex nihilo, and kindle, and Echo, prime video, etc.

Technology costs consist principally of research and development activities including payroll and related expenses for employees involved in application, production, maintenance, operation, and platform development for new and existing products and services, as well as AWS and other technology infrastructure expenses. Content costs consist principally of payroll and related expenses for employees involved in category expansion, editorial content, buying, and merchandising selection. Digital media content costs related to revenue recorded gross, including Prime Video, are included in cost of sales. If it is not R&D what is it ? Is it typical of a traditional retailer ? By the way, it's more than 10 % of revenue

Amazon is impossible to value with any degree of accuracy. On a purely objective basis (using GAAP earnings), it has a history of not earning its cost of capital. So it is perhaps worth book value of $31. The present value of Chamath's $3 trillion is $2400. I am pretty confident it is worth between $31 to $2400. This is where the concept of the outside view can help. At $700/share, you need a combination of sustained high revenue growth (which is very rare for a company this large) combined with exceptional margins (for a retailer). Are there any historical precedents for the implied growth and margins? None that I am aware of. Are there any precedents for exceptional companies that grew very quickly, dominated their industry, and had a "lost decade" solely because they became overpriced? That list is very long. -- To get a good return from the current price, you are literally betting on something completely unprecedented. It certainly seems plausible. Base rates use by investors is what gives opportunities. They tend to generalize and there lies the mispricing. "markets are efficient" is the outside view, so lots of people won't try to beat it and go ETFs. There lies the opportunity The outside view tells Amazon has to be compared to a retailer. But does a retailer invest 10% of sales in R&D ?

I don't know if Kahneman and Tversky are great investors...anyway i agree with your statement : expensive stocks tend to underperform. The question is: is AMZN price expensive ? Comparing it with Cisco or Yahoo is a bias. Berkshire Hathaway too seems invincible ...

calculating base rates for something unique is not very relevant. the outside view is interesting when there is a pattern.

If some of which may be more profitable to us , others are probably less profitable

other points to look at: -deferred revenue increasing sharply -share based compensation expense (impact of marked to market) -free cash flow -monetization rate -Ant Financial fresh funding round

Maybe TripAdvisor has to pay Priceline to make instant booking on its site

Funny is the story of the 90 years old grand mother invested at 85 % in equities ! Yes 85% ! What would he say about old grand father Munger invested at 95% in equities !