bilo

I agree with BG2008's points. I am impressed with the size and use of top-tier firms. It makes it clear that there is a reason they converted to a REIT. Doubt had started to creep in for me when I read the Q4, which IMO focused on relatively slow development and as I noted the pathetic levels of recent trading volume which act as a road block to the big money. Now we can hope they deploy the proceeds intelligently but also reasonably quickly - which will allow them to scale G&A (badly needed!) and show growth. I will certainly add if we get a nice dip, the stock has made itself far more interesting with this big move.

First earnings call in many years! Hopefully a good story to tell with measurable progress, etc. I'm looking forward to it. ---------- Aware Sets Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2020 Conference Call for Tuesday, February 9, 2021 at 5:00 p.m. Eastern Time BEDFORD, Mass., Feb. 01, 2021 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Aware, Inc. (NASDAQ: AWRE), a leading global provider of biometrics software products, solutions, and services, will hold a webcast on Tuesday, February 9, 2021 at 5:00 p.m. Eastern time to discuss its financial results for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2020. Financial Results will be issued in a press release prior to the call. Aware management will host the webcast presentation, followed by a question-and-answer session. Date: Tuesday, February 9, 2021 Time: 5:00 p.m. Eastern time (2:00 p.m. Pacific time) Webcast: https://webinars.on24.com/aware/EarningsQ42020 Interested parties may submit questions in advance of the conference call by emailing AWRE@gatewayir.com. The presentation will be made available for replay in the investor relations section of the Company’s website. The audio recording will be available for approximately 90 days following the live event.

pretty good stock pickers, genius direct marketers.

In my view, open end fund management and business success/growth has next to nothing in common with managing a fixed pool of capital or even a fund that does not have routine inflows and outflows. In my study of open-end funds I came to the conclusion for start-up open-end managers, the key is getting a volatility pump going where inflows become a beneficial force on prospective returns. No one wants to acknoledge that for obvious reasons, but in my view it is true for even the "legends" even if they participated in this unintentionally (which I personally doubt, its too obvious). A variation of it is the micro-cap LP manager who keeps pumping money into the same stocks as flows come in and before the cycle implodes diversifies new money into bigger names - or sets up a larger cap fund that old positions can be transferred into. I have noted this same pattern with many guys who have successfully bootstrapped small funds to larger funds - to the degree they are aware of what they are doing, I don't know. A key though is clearly having good fund raising ability - consistent - the folks toiling away not talking to anyone never benefit from their own flows (which, is of course what most would agree is how things are "supposed" to work). I first came to this conclusion from two sources - first, reading one of the legends books, key passages on fund flow impact and trading stood out to me - particularly the complete disregard for market impact (indeed telling the trader to "blast" stocks as needed). Makes zero sense unless there is something beneficial going on - which is what occurs when stocks are "blasted" in conjunction with performance chasing fund flows. Second, a now dead but once large hedge fund founder/manager described how it worked in relation to his suspicion that one of the top quant funds was using their low-fee public vehicle to "pump" their high fee hedge funds - something they could get away with easier than others as quants "just different trading systems, strategies, etc" Problem is, if one signal lags due to different time horizon by design, it is easy enough to implement. With regards to ARKK I have no doubt that the actually dollar-weighted returns will end up being horrible - that is how all "pump up" investment stories end, even if its tactically the ideal way to grow AUM and an open-fund business (once again, no opinion on if/if not ARK or others who use this strategy know what they are doing).

I bought a little today and will in coming days if it stays here or goes lower. What nutty volatility (both up and down).

Did anyone see AIV's go forward dividend policy?

have been buying RMRM, a closed end fund that is mid-conversion to a commercial MREIT. The basic situation - It is trading sub 50% of book value ($19.17) as of last measurement period (11/30) and the portfolio is now 65% commercial mortgages underwritten AFTER covid. When it completes the REIT conversion and ramps up the dividend, it will get on investors radar and the price will go up. I estimate +20% yield potential from today's price. In terms of price targets, even 80% book value is a nice return from the current level. However, for me it is mostly an incentive play - I believe RMR the manager will treat this vehicle right and use it to help improve their reputation as their growth prospects and run-rate EBITDA has been badly hit by the poor trading values of their managed REITS. I could see RMRM being used to acquire TRMT in a way that is accretive to the remaining (RMRM) entity. Really enjoy this trade (regardless of success) as it creates a nice test case in my overall hypothesis that RMR CEO is making real changes that will enhance trading values of all the RMR entities (and RMR itself). Risk of course is more (and more severe) shut downs that hurt commercial real estate and that I am wrong on my reading of future incentives/behavior by management. Short blog post and comments here: https://seekingalpha.com/instablog/1117597-nat-stewart/5524937-rmr-and-rmr-managed-companies-are-coiled-springs

Interesting question. A few thoughts: I recomend that you go through the process and create a form ADV and brochure. It will help to set expectations on both sides and prevent confusion. You need to check with your local regulator. My state does not allow "friends and family" advisors to receive compensation (perhaps that is everywhere? I don't even know). Take time to know the customer and never take any risk that is not appropriate for their situation. And dollar size of the account can't be used as shorthand for "conservative". For examle, $25K might be nothing to some, for others it is their safety net if they lose their job. Obviously, you don't want to be investing that money for someone in equity - that will be "scared money" and it will almost certainly end poorly. If you have rich friend/family that want you to manage "pocket change" for them, that is likely a low risk situation - but you still want clarity on both sides about objectives and expectations (which form ADV brochure provides) It sounds like your program is diversified/quality equity, which relative to other equity strategies some might do here ( focused micro cap, etc ) might be considered low(er) risk. However, the strategy will still get wacked during a major correction. So you need to look at if that person's equity allocation to your strategy is appropriate for their financial situation. IBKR's platform is excellent for a small business, as others have said. In other words, treat it like a real business where you have a fiduciary responsibility. If that doesn't make sense or is not worth the time, I'd not get involved in it.

EricSchieien, very smart. And for those who don't have the patience to think 10 years out, it will get to $100 faster than you think.

Super conservative initial div. figure vs. 2012, when they added a small amount of leverage and paid out 18% or so of the market cap. As of 10/31, cash should be near $400M, no debt. By payout date (absent a div) they will likely have some $450M cash. I'd think they could borrow $150M for next to free, leave $50M on balance sheet for conservative liquidity, and pay out $550M total or close to $12/share. Net debt of $100M is just .53% or so of trailing EBIT, could be paid down easily within 1 year. Are they super worried (perhaps appropriately) about covid or future covid-like disruptions? Leaving cash for some other strategic purpose? Super interesting. Guess we will find out soon enough.

Aside from the obvious IR efforts which are often focused on institutions, it must be remembered that REITS are also a very retail/financial advisor oriented asset class. For example, the top REIT authors on SA have enormous readerships that quite frankly dwarf the influence of most of the sell side in certain names. Here we have Brad Thomas, one of the top gurus on SA, stating that he reached out to GRIF's CEO to learn more. https://seekingalpha.com/article/4378711-trick-treat-buying-small-cap-reits#comment-86755992 If they do talk and he likes what he hears, it could be incredibly beneficial to have that support in such a small stock. Recall that a better stock price (awareness!) is a key fundamental -not- a negative for future returns, as it is with a "Discount to NAV" story.

GRIF is in the process of changing from a "Discount to NAV" story to a growth REIT play. Signifigant upside from here depends upon if management can successfuly attract a new shareholder base and execute on their strategy. If they do succeed, the upside will be greater than it was with the original "NAV discount" situatioin. If they fail, the stock will languish and not do too much, and perhaps they will reconsider selling the portfolio. Given how hot this asset class is, the quality of management and the skin in the game (alignment of interests) I have decided to sit tight and see if they can get this thing pumping. IMO, risk/reward still very favorable, just a different type of play vs. the one that attracted the "deep value" shareholder base that mostly exists here.

Isn't this the same smooth talker that convinced teeny controlled micro cap asset manager Bexil to incinerate a substantial amount of its small balance sheet attempting to get into the mortgage origination business? Is there any prior evidence this guy is actually a good investor and not just engagued in a "buffett mimicry" marketing scheme? Good for him, it has worked to raise money. But where is the evidence he knows what to do with the money? I admittedly didn't look that hard, but on its face this stock looks absurd.

I dumped my position after the last 20-F. The supposed "increased disclosure" was a bad joke, particularly after they talked it up, which was a huge red flag IMO. I'd take another spec position if I had clarity on IF a real liquidation or royalty spin would take place.

I believe that Value Investing Still works. Very well in fact. The problem i see for many value investors is: 1. Many are formulaic thinkers who never advance beyond a simple desire to repeat what worked in the past without realizing the market is a dynamic competition that requires adaptation 2. Many value investors, particularly sophisticated ones, shoot themselves in the foot over and over and fail to learn from their own mistakes, as well as the mistakes of others. This is particularly true for long/short managers who keep impailing themselves on bubble stocks for no reason 3. Many value investors take pride in having zero market or trading acumen 4. Many talented analysts are put into portfolio management roles with little to any knowledge on how to run a portfolio, manage risk, and "step on the gas" at the right time. They are like the guy who studied boxing for years in books, then step in the ring expecting to be competent. All of these issues are encapsulated by the lazy desire to blame "value investing not working" for crummy results. And if one wants to define "value investing" as some statistical factor (or collection of them) you have been made obsolete, indeed quite a few years ago.