jemn

I also cant think of a way you lose money at these prices. many of the primary concerns I have heard about BAT or tobacco in general are either unrealistic or invalidated by the data. In what realistic situation does BAT not generate 90B pounds in FCF ~80B pounds in FCF over the next 10 years?

I am more wondering what capital allocation approach he is suggesting management take. I think he is probably telling them to cut the dividend to buyback stock. considering this would enrage all the dividend crazed investors holding BAT, y'all think management would do this?

Little late but what do y'all think about: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-05-03/secretive-dart-surfaces-with-6-7-billion-bets-on-smoking-giants I don't think Dart is looking to clip coupons... what do you think his angle is?

probably.. I thought that was a little too ambitious haha

Unless they know something we do not. The only reason why they wouldn't buy back 25% of the shares outstanding is because their primary focus is not getting rich(er). Initially I against the disposal of treasury shares to the scholarship foundation but after stepping back and thinking about it, I think it might be beneficial to shareholders for them to do it. Maybe it incentives management, specifically Shinohara to make some dough for shareholders.

no matter how 'good' the business is, hoarding cash is really going to dampen returns.

Do they actually need all that cash though?

Can someone explain why this apartment management company has 35B yen of cash on it's balance sheet?

I'm interested in learning about the real estate industry (no specific sector yet). I've noticed many folks here are into real estate and wanted to ask for some guidance. Can you guys recommend some books for me to read? or any other materials or things that might be helpful for learning about the subject? thanks!

Shinoken board cancels disposal of treasury stock and approves buyback of 1.45% (500m yen) Translation makes the 'cancellation of the disposal' resolution unclear. Am I misreading this? if not, cheers! ;D cancellation_of_disposal.pdf

Attached below are translations of some interesting posts from that forum

Been doing research on shinoken for the past week and have come across a Japanese real estate forum where they discuss Shinoken's services. Here is the thread: https://www.e-mansion.co.jp/bbs/thread/41830/res/3201-3218/ I recommend doing some scrolling to get an idea of how both tenants and landlords feel about shinoken. You can use google translate extension for chrome to automatically translate for you. Some clients (both landlords and tenants) are happy but most are not. Tenants are upset with the poor construction quality (thinness of walls - u can hear the other tenants) and the unfair price of the utilities. However, occupancy rates show these complaints aren't too big of an issue. Regardless, it seems most people are unsatisfied with shinoken. Most importantly, some landlords and prospective landlords express that shinoken is 'a scam' selling unprofitable investments to inexperienced RE investors. This tactic is sort of reflected by their ads which state: "Create an asset of 200 million yen from an investment of 1 million yen." Shinoken's service is legitimate but many people see it as unprofitable and therefore predatory. They point to high land prices as the reason why investing in apartments (via shinoken) is likely to be unprofitable. These high prices are of course the result of Japanese tax laws and low interest rates. They go on to say that no professional real estate investors are buying apartments now due to these high land prices - instead its only retail people that get roped in by shinoken. They point out an incentive structure where real estate salespeople recommend/sell shinoken properties to salarymen even though they know they are unprofitable (to make a commission). If this is true, I dont know how sustainable growth will be for shinoken via selling apartments to salarymen buyers.. maybe thats a contributing factor to the creation of the reit (much less so than tightening in lending to salarymen)? Im of course taking these comments with a big grain of salt, however, as an outsider it is good to get an idea of what locals think about the company. Poor buyer/potential buyer sentiment (which has nothing to do with the scandal) is my main takeaway from this / concern. I know the discount makes some of these concerns less important but I am interested in the long term prospects here. Take a look (make sure u view multiple pages not just the first) and lmk what u think.