tyska

Excuse me if I don't quite understand your thinking on your "significant miss" statement. Is his last price of 6 not a significant miss already. Not having seen any study done on the accuracy of price targets by analyst, but just my observations. It would seem that analysts make weather forecasters look like genius's. In hindsight they always have reasons for being off, who doesn't, but I would think if missed price targets had a career limiting outcome, the turnover must be astronomical.

So it's right in there with LTS and LTS has hedging in place.

There is a chance that you'll see something new today. So far, it's up on divvy cut day. A jeez, you beat me to it, Hardly fair when they are fortuitous enough to cut the day before oil jumps a couple bucks and all energy stocks are popping ;). I believe LTS fell the day after their cut. Just saw that First Energy has a target price of $.50 on LTS, seems a little drastic. But I doesn't seem that stocks are traded on value or fundamentals any more. Just Energy is having a pop along with energy stocks today and they are more of a utility/consumergoods retailer. I posted my comment when oil was down this morning. PWE was up, oil was down. Now oil is up and PWE's rally has fizzled. I know, just hassling the two of you back a little. I see that now down is up and up is down, pretty much sums up the rational in the markets lately.

There is a chance that you'll see something new today. So far, it's up on divvy cut day. A jeez, you beat me to it, Hardly fair when they are fortuitous enough to cut the day before oil jumps a couple bucks and all energy stocks are popping ;). I believe LTS fell the day after their cut. Just saw that First Energy has a target price of $.50 on LTS, seems a little drastic. But I doesn't seem that stocks are traded on value or fundamentals any more. Just Energy is having a pop along with energy stocks today and they are more of a utility/consumergoods retailer.

All the headlines keep screaming glut, then you have the facts. Who is right. http://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/EIA-Oil-Production-Numbers-Show-Global-Slowdown.html The North Sea and the US are just about a wash.

Not quite sure what you are saying here. That buying back shares now is a bad decision by management? They omitted the fact that insiders and the company were buying back shares. They would have known those things when they issued their press release. Bad form. Insiders were front running the NCIB. That strikes me as unethical. Not able to comment on what they did or didn't know at the time of the press release. But my understanding is that a third party is responsible for buybacks, but have no idea what requirements would be as far as frequency of reporting buys to company.

don't they buy at the same time they are issued via dividend reinvestment? does that make a lot of sense? I don't know. Does a DRIP program ever make sense or does it only make sense under certain criteria? I'm thinking the same thought process could be applied to options. Another way to word the question is, should companies ever have a DRIP program. You should add a DRIP program if you are getting tight on cash and you think this might scare the market less than cutting the dividend. And of course if misleading people in this way doesn't bother your conscience. I wasn't necessarily talking about how LTS did it, not exactly sure when they instituted their DRIP, as the comment of buying back shares while you have a drip in place can apply to other stocks. The Canadian banks come to mind as to other shares that I have in DRIP, who also have normal course issuer bids.

don't they buy at the same time they are issued via dividend reinvestment? does that make a lot of sense? I don't know. Does a DRIP program ever make sense or does it only make sense under certain criteria? I'm thinking the same thought process could be applied to options. Another way to word the question is, should companies ever have a DRIP program.

Not quite sure what you are saying here. That buying back shares now is a bad decision by management?

I agree with this analysis. market is saying "phooey" to PWT management, daring it to keep the dividend intact. if he wants the stock to go up he should cut the dividend. show people you're serious about making it through this cycle instead of appealing to widows and orphans in Canada. the company is seen as a distress asset and as long as oil prices stay where they are and the divvie stays where it is, the stock is in trouble imo. this dividend is nothing more than getting your own capital returned to you when the company needs it, if only to prop up perceptions that it's a going concern. btw anybody know the pwt bonds prices at the moment? You know I have heard that" cut the div. and the stock will rise", or the more common " a div cut is already priced into it". But in my experience I can not think of one stock that has cut the div and didn't tank even more. Some have come back, but over a long time frame.

I see LTS has started to buy back shares. They're buying back as Petrobakken not sure why that is. 3 mil cancelled as of Dec. 5

My point is the $220 m isn't the cash cost they need as a large percent is or was in DRIP. Another thought is a lower cap-ex may actually go further as they might be able to squeeze more out of the service companies looking for work.

You think AAMC is crooked but not EOX, SD, etc. ? In my opinion, I would put stocks in the following tiers based on integrity (highest to lowest): BRK.A AAMC and KMI (pre-merger KMI) XOM/Exxon, MCF CLR, Peyto SD CHK Average piece of **** smallcap independent E&P. e.g. REXX. Worldcom, Penn West EOX, MILL yes, EOX is worse than Worldcom. ----------- Guys... a lot of these stocks have terrible management teams. The ones that sold off the most have the worst management teams. They are the ones who deceive shareholders the most. You know that the typical independent E&P inflates their reserves right? I have no opinions on any of those (SD, EOX etc.) I only brought them up to point out what I saw as a pricing anomaly. This priced for future distress guys in the US bonds have all traded down significantly and PWE's are all marked at par on Bloomberg. I have investigated this but could not find a US investment bank that trades those bonds (or at least they are not sent out on normal energy runs that the dealers send out). That's all I was saying. Then someone asked about the ability to buy bonds and I said you could buy those crappy company bonds till your hearts desire; IB allows you to do so, except the EOX converts were 144A. I never expressed an opinion about crookedness. I have a small position in PWE and PWE options because I like leverage on leverage on leverage on stocks that are down 70% and look like they can survive; $2B of debt doesn't seem insurmountable. May I lose my shirt on the position? Oh yes!It is sized as such. PWE looks like it was a giant piece of shit of a company under old management and new management's ridiculous stubbornness about the dividend that should immediately be cut to zero isn't exactly confidence inspiring. What am I missing with everyone promoting that the div should be cut. Last numbers I saw, unless it has changed recently, the div was a very small cash cost to the company. Yeh it's diluting the shares, but so are all the options that they keep putting out, yet you hardly hear a boo of concern about that with the price fall. My understanding is the short shares are the ones that have to come up with the cash for the div on the shares they are short, please correct me if my understanding of that is incorrect.

source: http://csinvesting.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/07/Michael-Burry-Case-Studies.pdf That's pretty much how I view the practice. I have a stock that is doing that, Total Energy. They have been buying back shares like crazy the last few years with very little movement in either the share price or the share count. The sad part is that when I originally purchased the stock the management was not planning on using options very widely. I guess that greed over came any sense of honour.

I think that most would agree that they are a huge cost to shareholders with the dilution factor. But how one would quantify that with a formula might be a little harder.