libor.plus1
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I did a lot of of work on RST about a year ago and never really got the appeal as an investment. It's an incredibly competitive market, particularly the language division, and the Company had cash balance guidance that there was no way they were going to hit. I also don't really understand the market reaction to a potential sale. The M&A activity in the learning space has had some pretty mediocre results. I don't see how this gets a half billion valuation.
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I intend to do a writeup for it at some point when I get some free time. But sure, here's the short version. Hydro One is a regulated utilitity that does electricity transmission and distribution in Ontario. It owns virtually all the transmission system in Ontario and a huge chunk of the distribution system. Very simple and safe business. Recently there's been a lot of political nonsense around the company which drove down the price a lot. This is not an I'm gonna get rich stock, nor do I think it is a screaming bargain at the current price. I think at current levels it's a safe bet it'll do 8%-10%. Given where market valuations are right now I don't mind making 8-10% on some power wires and deploy some cash I got sloshing around in portfolios. I'd love to read your write up on this. Im having a hard time seeing how you get comfortable with the lack of dividend growth potential (only 4-5% increase per year) and the political issues surrounding this company - which plays directly into the dividend growth potential, or lack of.
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I bought some EMA.TO and BCE this week. My reasoning is that I think at this part of the cycle rising interest rates are closer to the end than the beginning.
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and that doesnt apply to the S&P?
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Not sure why so many people are buying brk.b - at this point brk is an S&P hugger and they both have the same 1 and 5 year returns. Plus, there's probably downside if WB kicks it.
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wow. How did this company go from $500/share to a microcap in five years?
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I clicked on the first page of this thread without knowing anything about the company and instantly I was interested. By page 3, issues of management integrity and them "not being very clear" came up and I completely lost interest. I found it funny on page 3 how a few of the people on this board just minimized management integrity with "they own shares, they seem competent". Having lost interest I went to the last page of this thread as well as looked at the price chart. LOL. A lot of investors here need to understand that there is no substitute for management integrity. If management is not being clear, its because they are hiding something. Applying a 2x multiple to earnings from some shady management is not investing, its gambling.
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See, that's what I always thought. I just assume that the big money came from web hosting. It turns out that web hosting and other services are only about 30% of revenue, whereas most goes to domain name registration. I am talking about the industry in general and not just about GoDaddy and Rightside. I think maybe that has something to do with domain redirects, domainers and speculators, etc.
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Check out page 79: http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1589094/000104746914005450/a2220303zex-99_1.htm#mu10201_selected_historical_combined_financial_data You will notice that they were quite profitable until 2012. In 2012 they started investing in their registry business which forced them into loss-making. All those investments are only starting to generate revenue in 2014 (starting in February to be exact). Their loss-making is not something that I am concerned about as it was investment/growth induced. However, if you check out GoDaddy's prospectus, you will note that they are actually not profitable despite being the BIGGEST registrar in the world at about 5x bigger than rightside). The issue for GoDaddy is one of loss-leading to grow market share. After all, Superbowl commercials are expensive. Both GoDaddy and Rightside are loss-making, but for very different reasons. That's why I think Rightside is quite an attractive investment.
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On Rightside: I think there is a lot of value here you are correct on it being a desirable target. One likely acquirer is web.com (WWWW). -They already have a joint venture with Rightside called Namejet, which is an aftermarket seller of domain names. -In Q1 2014, WWWW also purchased an online auction service for domain names and noted that it compliments their JV with Rightside. -On the Q1 2013 conference call, WWWW management notes their interest in the .web gTLD and DMD's role: Analyst: My second question would be, in terms of the GTLD's, David, obviously .web is probably going to Demand Media. That's the most highly anticipated name in extension that's out there on the new GTLD program. It's going to be contested. It's going to go into auction at some point. What is your threshold? Would you be willing to go in and fight for that to be the registry for that name or would you rather just reap the benefits of being the registrar? Management: On .web, the way we've always thought about .web is that, given that we have a trademark on the name Web.com, we really needed to apply for .web in order to protect our trademark. We're not in the registry business today. We're a registrar and we're a big one and it's a profitable business. That's the business we like to be in. But, in order to protect our trademark, globally, we needed to basically defend ourselves by applying for .web. We're certainly interested in getting it but it's not our core business. Given the high degree of interest, we'll have to see how it plays out. But, we'll be perfectly content if anyone gets .web because they are going to distribute it through us and it's our name and we're advertising and building a brand in the marketplace and we're going to be a great deliverer of .web extensions, whoever gets it; whether it's us or someone else. I've also commented before that our strategy has always been to cooperate so we've looked at the people who have applied and we certainly are talking to all of them about who would benefit from this and which team would be the best team to provide services. That would be our strategy. On the DMD side: I think the consensus is that the DMD content properties will be acquired by private equity firms who already have a 40% interest in the company as is.
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Ah. Glad to know I'm not the only one that caught an interest and hopefully we can merge the threads. The presentation that xtreeq pointed out does a better job than me of explaining the value in the registrar business. ValueTrap, would love to get your thoughts on it. I have also been noticing that both DMD and TCX have been rising nicely since the GoDaddy ipo was announced.
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ItsAValueTrap: I think pretty much everything you stated is easily provided by all registrars. When you sign up for a domain on any platform (not just eNom), you get technical support, and you get email and web hosting as well as domain privacy. These are all very standard offerings provided by ALL registrars and not something unique to GoDaddy. DMD's SEC filings say as much. Also I think it's important to note that the DMD registrar side also owns name.com which is a retail business in addition to eNom. Regarding your last point I note that GoDaddy makes about $10 revenue per domain under management which is consistent with DMD.
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DMD is a company that has both a content business and a registrar business. Both of these segments contribute equally to revenue. DMD is planning to spin off its registrar business from its content business in the next few months. Im guessing that both companies will have a 200M market cap individually (currently the company is valued at about 400M) I did some research on this company after a write-up from GeoInvesting which is a solid research firm that is usually in the fraud busting business. Here is their write-up on the Content business: http://seekingalpha.com/article/2249683-demand-medias-c-and-m-business-prospects-boosted-by-new-google-search-algorithm-changes The turnaround in the content business is interesting, but what I find most compelling is the registrar business which will begin trading under the ticker NAME post spinoff. Currently the registrar side manages 15.4 million domain names. GoDaddy which just filed their paperwork to go public manages 57 million. I dont know what GoDaddy will be worth when it begins trading, but considering that KKR and Silver Lake bought GoDaddy for around $2.3 billion back in 2011, a $3 billion valuation seems pretty reasonable. From some quick math, we can see that GoDaddy is valued at around $53 per domain under management which would make DMD's registrar business worth around $800 million on its own. DMD has also been investing in its registry business (not to be confused with a registrar business) which I expect will lead to higher margins per domain under management. A good example of a registry business is Verisign with net margins of around 56%. A good comparable in this case would be Minds + Machines on on the London stock exchange (MMX). MMX is a blended registrar and registry business with a fraction of the assets that DMD has. In 2012, MMX made around $700K in revenue but has a market value of about $180 million. I am kind of dumb founded as to why DMD is trading so low although it has started to runup since the last earnings report. Any opposing viewpoints or thoughts in general would be appreciated. Disclosure: I started building a position in DMD ahead of the spinoff.
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TRQ gives me the same vibe as InterOil. Both seem to be companies with sketchy/promotional finders, who claim to have the largest finds in the world. Yet when it comes time to execute, there's delay after delay. In both cases, the boogie man seems to be the government... the Mongolia government with TRQ and the PNG government with InterOil. I would love more color on this company, and in particular to hear more thoughts from ValueTrap.
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The response has nothing to do with anything other than your analysis or lack of. You found a under valued micro cap? Awesome. Now tell us why you feel its undervalued - maybe use some numbers. Posting that management is buying and they are audited by a big 4 doesn't mean anything. You must realize that probably isn't a good thesis for most people, right?