MrB

2021 Q1 results are out. Healthy increase in BV and AM Best A rating in sight. Wintaai Financial Highlight (Mar 2021).pdf

Discussion on Stonetrust

No need to apologise CB. I much rather listen to different view.

The reasons for the recent sales drop is discussed in their recent presentations and transcripts and together with headline news in Aus should leave one in little doubt about what's going on. Not reflected in the above discussions, which make you wonder about the level of research. I expect more.

Wintaai Holdings Ltd is the holding company for what will eventually become a collection of insurance and operating companies, but to date it holds one substantial asset, Stonetrust Commercial Insurance Co. Some of the related ground has already been covered in Investmd's thread Chou Dhandho StoneTrust which includes the recent (overly glowing) Forbes article. We're invested in Wintaai, so I'm going to steer clear of the valuation discussion for now and prefer to have Francis and Mike speak for themselves in the attached letter to shareholders. Probably safe to say you can tag at least another 15% onto the BVPS for Q1 2021. Wintaai and Stonetrust Annual Letters (2020).pdf

Wait till you get them in front of the sell side on a regular basis.

Solar in TX a bit like selling snow to an Eskimo? LOL Already reports of them doing solar https://www.solarpowerworldonline.com/2020/01/rwe-renewables-completes-100-mw-texas-solar-project/ Also according to 10k do leasing for wind farms.

TPL will definitely be hurt by current prices and it is really difficult to predict the future oil price, but I'm still optimistic about future prices because we are going to need oil for a really long time and of course there will be more green energy etc. - so prices should go down - but oil will be more scarce over a decade and will have a price of $60 or higher with quite some swings. Oil prices have risen from $40 in 2016 to $55 in 2019 and TPL grew a tremendous rates; 79% CAGR for FCF (2016-2019) and 42% CAGR for EBITDA (2014-2019). Besides that, TPL owns 900,000 surface acres in Texas. Texas is growing bigger and bigger in population and while these probably aren't the places you want to live, there is more place needed for businesses for example, or water utilities, infrastructure, electricity etc. So more people want to use TPL's land. Also a problem Texas is facing is water shortage and let TPL just be the one who can help solve these problems. So I see quite some upside in their water business alone. Even if oil prices will stay this low they should be able to grow with double digits. Love to hear if people totally or in some part disagree with me. This land is barren. It can barely support jack rabbits. You might run one head of cattle per 15 acre. Even if you found a business seeking a square mile of unoccupied land in the middle of nowhere, the buyer would have a hundred parcels to choose from. In our analysis TPL's landbank value is similar to companies like Sears and Dillards; 80% of the value sits in 20% of the properties. Valuable land around El Paso and then generally speaking have good tracks where the county averages are pretty high. Point being that you don't have to dig to deep to find that not all their land is barren. Having said that in light of the current valuation the land alone does not get you there.

If I am understanding your post right, that isn't a meaningful comparison. The low $30 base rent average includes all the inline store space, which pay much more per square foot than the anchor boxes do. Dillard's obviously owns and operates exclusively anchors. We were kicking that around again just yesterday. Problem with that argument is that valued purely on base rent what the argument implies is that anchor space is worth between 10%-30% of non anchor space, making it by far the least valuable space in a mall. This contradicts the reason an anchor can get away with paying such low rent in the first place. In our view the argument has some legs to it, but it's not as simple as just comparing the rent per sq ft. More problematic is what the $127/sq ft in sales for DDS says about the value of their property portfolio. Here the counter is the skew is significant, but unsurprising; 20% of their properties = 80% of the value. As Gregmal pointed out; event driven idea, but in our view property is the downside protection and any way you cut it, it seems more than sufficient to us.

Just a heads up for anyone following this closely. Two mall REIT bankruptcies announced https://wolfstreet.com/2020/11/02/years-of-brick-and-mortar-meltdown-punctuated-by-pandemic-pushed-two-mall-reits-into-bankruptcy-cbl-pennsylvania-real-estate-investment-trust/ Just been digging through their financials to find proxies for Dillard's property values. Turns out 43 properties (5.8m sq ft) of Dillards in CBL malls with a lot of data on the sales per sq ft, rent/sq ft etc and they break it out nicely in terms of Tier 1 - 3 malls. Basically shows that rental income for the malls in which Dillard's sits the avg base rents are in the low $30 range, which will value Dillard's 43 stores at $1.7Bn-$2.4Bn (10%/7% cap rate). In sq ft (5.8m sq ft) this represents 12% of Dillard's 48m sq ft property portfolio. Dillard's EV is $1.7Bn today. Anyway, point is these two bankruptcies might be interesting to some.

Q3 call https://seekingalpha.com/article/4382362-allegiant-travel-co-algt-ceo-maurice-gallagher-on-q3-2020-results-earnings-call-transcript?part=single And given this new measurement approach, we had a very good quarter. In fact, September wasn't a cash burn month, but rather it was a cash flow breakeven month Through the combination of a resilient business model, a very broad domestic network, leisure traveler-focused, quick and aggressive cost cutting and continued financial discipline, we are weathering the storm better than anyone such that we no longer will be referring to cash burn. Not only is the term creatively defined and seemingly unique to each carrier, it no longer applies to us. Greg will get into this with more detail in his remarks. Our adjusted CASM-X, which excludes special items and benefits from CARES Act, for the quarter was $0.0625 and less than our full year '19 CASM-X of $0.065.

1.5m volume already

Yup...it's a fun day! https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/?symbol=DDS

Gonna be a fun day. 18.3m-4m-7.3m-4.5m- a million here and a million there...and before you know it you have a real short squeeze on 6.5m

Not sure that's true if you vaccinate the 99.9% that would not have died from it anyway or the 98% that would not have contracted the virus anyway v the 0.01% on which you will have to spend for the ICU stays, infusions and what not.