ERICOPOLY

Only the Model S by Tesla can use the supercharger network. Not even the Tesla Roadster can use the superchargers. They simply aren't capable of receiving that much electrical current -- so as they are currently designed, it's impossible for the competing electric cars (all of them) to charge as quickly as a Model S can recharge at a supercharger station. They are also planning on upgrading the supercharger stations to feed even more current to the Model S (the Model S is designed to handle more current than superchargers presently provide).

There is pretty much no hope for expansion. 1) Most cities in America have a vast supercharger network. Thus, there is nothing holding back adoption. 2) They have saturated Europe. 3) They have saturated Asia. And yet they are only breaking even! They are toast. No way to make a profit going forward given that there is no growth left.

I wasn't trying to imply that the warrant would underperform the stock, what I was trying to imply is that if you wanted non-recourse leverage the LEAPS+common were by far the better deal except under the very narrow scenario where the stock hovers right around $12 for the majority of the entire six years (in which case the leverage in the LEAPS+common scenario would continue to remain expensive for the lifetime of the warrants). As merkhet pointed out, the warrants had much more time value. I was cautioning people to not be in such a hurry to prepay for six years of the leverage when it is very expensive. It should be intuitive to value investors not to go shopping at Costco to buy huge quantities of things if their prices were higher than everyone else's and soon expected to fall steeply. You might be willing to buy just one or two items at that price, but it's relatively crazy to want to buy a six pack when you strongly suspect the prices will soon drop by more than 50%.

I have a brother-in-law who is an administrator at a major private university (everyone knows the name of this university). He tells me in the 1980s this university made a major push to bring in international students under the cover of "diversity". His view is that the "diversity" angle is completely BS spin, and that the only reason for the drive to bring in international students is a revenue grab. Why take a US student when the dollars are so much greater for bringing in an international student that adds "diversity"? This leaves fewer spots at the table for US students -- even if they can pay the tuition, will they be more desirable to the admissions officer than the international student who brings in more money?

I'm not skilled at valuing companies, but I understand the importance of it. I see nothing more than buy/low sell/high when somebody pulls out the buzz words "Value Investing" -- the prices are high and low relative to an intrinsic value (it is already implicitly understood in the phrase "buy low, sell high"). So my strategy has been to follow investors who know how to value companies, and then pick over investments looking for something I like (this usually equates to a very straightforward pitch, or else I just wouldn't understand it enough to like it). My returns were enhanced with options for non-recourse leverage, but I don't go around looking for things I can leverage. There were times when I felt the risk/reward was so good that I used options for non-recourse leverage.

This explains his issue: Just move to Dhaka, Bangladesh and you'll feel rich. These people have the opposite problem: http://thebillfold.com/2013/02/a-friendly-chat-with-a-rich-person-household-income-360000/ They feel rich, but aren't rich if you ask me. They are working him 80 to 100 hours per week, and he has net debt. He is not rich! Surely, you must at least have a net worth above $0 to meet any criteria of being rich.

You also might be earning $500k from your labors, but if you neighbor "earns" $500k from passive income while hiking the National Parks that is an entirely different meaning of rich.

I did 2 years at Foothill College (community college) and then 2 years at UCLA. It currently costs about $1,200 per year for tuition at Foothill College vs $12,700 per year for UCLA. The "crisis" is greatly exaggerated. The total tuition costs for a 4 year degree from UCLA are less than $30,000.

He didn't keep $570k anyhow because he paid tax. The only number that matters is how much he was able to take home.

Okay, if the SPY drops 36% it will completely reimburse me if MBI goes to $0. That's because the SPY exposure is 2.7x larger than the MBI exposure. I am guaranteed a profit on this trade if SPY declines more than 36%. you are master of all these option trades :) Why not but IWM puts instead as you had said IWM falls more then spy. I closed out my IWM puts for a tax loss. I can't get back in right away due to the wash sale rules. But it doesn't matter. Because SPY puts are cheaper, for the same total outlay you can purchase more notional exposure. The market prices in the fact that IWM will fall harder (to some degree anyway... just look at how much more expensive IWM puts are as a % of notional insured value). These are at-the-money puts (more option premium). Originally when I was in IWM puts they were in-the-money (less option premium). This time I'm purchasing at-the-money to match up with the fact that I wrote at-the-money puts on MBI.

Hand copied texts are time consuming and expensive to produce. The printing press is a labor saving device. This opens Pandora's box.

I think Sears is an awful retailer that will never get turned around, and thus we may finally be getting somewhere with the stock after Eddie finally gives up on Sears the retailer and gets some other tenant into that real estate. Sort of strange that my logic revolves around how terrible the Sears retail stores are. I guess I am not that confident with only 4% invested but usually I find it easier to add than to make the initial outlay. It occurred to me today that the stock is down because the operations are terrible and Eddie still talks as if he is surprised. I have an idea for him. Shut down the corporate HQ and move his desk into one of the mostly vacant stores so he gets a better idea of why they lose money.

Has the CEO sold all of his MBI shares? http://www.nasdaq.com/quotes/insiders/brown-joseph-w-385622 EDIT: I'm sort of curious how this "non-open market" disposition thing works. Does it show up like that if he moves his shares into a GRAT? Like, if he's expecting a pop in the stock, he moves it to the GRAT so the appreciation occurs outside of his estate. I see some symmetry in 749,000 shares disposition "non-open market direct" and then sold once again as an indirect owner. A GRAT might be considered a related party and thus "indirect" ownership.

Hedging against the index would have been an appropriate way to "exit" the position on valuation grounds, without triggering the taxation issue or worrying about disclosure rules.

This looks like Fidelity. But you said you use IB as your broker? My taxable account is with IB, my RothIRA is at Fidelity.

Okay, if the SPY drops 36% it will completely reimburse me if MBI goes to $0. That's because the SPY exposure is 2.7x larger than the MBI exposure. I am guaranteed a profit on this trade if SPY declines more than 36%.

I said if "the market" drops 27% (meaning the SPY puts are soaring) then... MBI will have to be down more than 2.7x that much (or 72.9%) to spoil the trade. Otherwise... I'll make money. See... Gary Shilling warns that the market would need to drop 27% to get back to fair value. So... in a market correction (one that merely brings us back to fair value later this year) I'll be making money unless MBI drops more than 72.9%. But really I'm highly motivated to shift my already booked short term capital gains out another year. I think it's true that once tax rates get too high, tax receipts go down. Nobody wants to be treated like this, so there is retaliation in the form of what I'm doing.

Oh well, I'm not going to cash. I just can't do it. Market is just too fun and I don't have a day job anyhow. I wrote a bunch of MBI puts today just before the close and used the proceeds to purchase SPY puts. I purchased about $2.70 of at-the-money SPY insurance for every $1 of MBI insurance written (slightly out of the money). We'll now see if MBI drops more than 2.7x harder than SPY. Let's say the market drops 27% -- well, this trade is only going to lose money if MBI drops more than 72.9% Perhaps I can make the argument that I de-leveraged my portfolio with this trade (on a notional basis). I really need tax losses this year. That 52% tax rate is just murder. Scenario #1 (market has epic crash): 1. capture tax loss on MBI puts on Dec 31, 2013 2. capture SPY put gain on Jan 1, 2014. Scenario #2 (market doesn't have epic crash) 1. capture SPY put loss on Dec 31, 2013 2. capture MBI put gain on Jan 1, 2014. Other scenarios... lots of them... One of the main goals of this is to shift my short term capital gains from 2013 to 2014. I just don't want to pay 52% tax rate.

I never fished Pittwater as a child but once on a visit in July around 1985 I caught a very large squid fishing into the rocks right off of the saltwater pool at Palm Beach. We didn't really know what to do with the squid because we were experienced only with catching fish. We were standing at the northeast corner of the pool when we brought it in. It suctioned itself to the cement wall and we had to cut the line. Then it crawled into the pool and swam off! I wonder how long that squid survived in the pool undiscovered. There is probably a local resident there wondering what hooligan did that.

The cost of my BAC puts are the cost of insurance to eliminate the recourse nature of my margin loan. So I look at that cost on an annualized basis because that's the only way my mind is trained to value interest expense.

I was going there 1 month a year with my wife and kids after the big break in 2006 with the FFH options -- we would stay at my grandmother's cottage on Bynya Rd up above Whale Beach. That's where I was during the October 2008 crash. Then my grandmother died two years ago in April, less than a month after our last stay. My father passed on his option to buy the place, sold his share to his siblings, and his siblings tore it down foolishly believing the land (two parcels) would be worth more marketed separately. It's sad -- that cottage was build by my father (when he was 16) and my grandfather who bought the land in 1950. Now his siblings are stuck with two parcels of land that they can't sell and it's market value has dropped 20% in 24 months. We're just pulling for a lower AUD so we can buy the next family getaway -- I always wanted an ocean view anyway, that cottage had a Pittwater view. But yeah, Whale Beach and Palm Beach are awesome -- I remember learning for the first time my right from my left based on which way we walked from the cottage down to Whale Beach.

Purchasing Power Parity would put it in the 60-70 cent range. An overshoot, as these things typically do, would put it into the 40-50 cent range. http://fx.sauder.ubc.ca/PPP.html It has been a wonderful period to invest funds overseas as the margin of safety has been the AUD. Alas, most Australian's have been sinking the proceeds of a multi-generational terms of trade boom into residential property. As the AUD drops and inflation picks up, no doubt house prices may well track sideways for 10 years. The punters will conclude property never goes down. They will be correct except for the fact that their purchasing power has been halved. cheers nwoodman There is a market in the Sydney Northern Beaches region that is already down 30% or so -- the area is small, from the homes overlooking Whale Beach to Palm Beach. Not sure if that's the only place in Australia getting socked like that, but it's been interesting to watch the prices come down.

lithium-air batteries: http://spectrum.ieee.org/nanoclast/green-tech/advanced-cars/nanoscale-peak-at-lithiumair-batteries-promise-better-electric-vehicles also, a lot of speculation over such a battery being unveiled soon for the front-trunk -- to be rapidly swapped out in less time than filling a tank of gas: http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/16709-Proof-of-Tesla-s-plan-for-battery-swapping/page16

Here is Goldman Sachs' predicting the Australian dollar can fall to 80 cents versus the US Dollar. http://www.cnbc.com/id/100746076?__source=yahoo%7Cfinance%7Cheadline%7Cheadline%7Cstory&par=yahoo&doc=100746076%7CGoldman+Warns+of+Big+Move

Some interesting things I learned reading today on the Tesla website: 1) never servicing the car does not void the warranty 2) they will soon offer a battery replacement after 8 years for $12,000 paid today 3) if you do take your car into service, they give you a fully loaded performance edition car as a loaner. You can keep the loaner if you like it more (you pay some discount for it based on how old it is versus your car that you don't want back from the service center). This keeps the loaner car fleet refreshed they claim. 4) you don't void the battery warranty even if you neglect to keep the battery regularly fully charged