ERICOPOLY

They have showrooms at the service centers (or at least they do at the Rocklin service center). They have a showroom in Rocklin with a Model S, a Model X, and a Model 3. There are a number of Tesla employee standing around to answer questions and to help you place an order online for a Tesla. You can schedule a test drive if you wish. Isn't that what dealerships provide to car buyers?

The Model Y is ready for production. The Roadster will do 0-60 in 1.9s. The Roadster will have a 620 mile range. I haven't met a Tesla owner who doesn't love their car. There are better stocks to short.

The results were as guided.

The company has stated that they believe the storage business will grow to be the size of the car business. It is almost never mentioned.

Upselling "can be simply exposing the customer to other options that were perhaps not considered ". https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Upselling I believe they waited to start these emails until they had a $45,000 offering because it magically gets to their $35,000 reservation price point after the tax credits. It isn't unreasonable to think that some buyers may have a budget of $35,000 and not realize there are $10,000 in potential tax credits. I was being sarcastic. This practice of attempting the upsell is not nearly as shady as some of the common practices in the “traditional” auto industry. I realize that you were being sarcastic about the shady practices from "traditional" dealers but in doing so I felt as though it was distracting attention from a likely justified reason for them to send these emails. The $35,0000 reservation holders have been frustrated with the waiting time so attempting to offer them another configuration that they may be pleased with was possibly the primary motivation.

Upselling "can be simply exposing the customer to other options that were perhaps not considered ". https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Upselling I believe they waited to start these emails until they had a $45,000 offering because it magically gets to their $35,000 reservation price point after the tax credits. It isn't unreasonable to think that some buyers may have a budget of $35,000 and not realize there are $10,000 in potential tax credits.

The VIN numbers are useless for tracking #delivered cars because they are not assigned in sequential order. Would be very surprised if the reservation number is high because they did not provide any update on the reservation count 3 weeks ago in the Q3 deliveries report (in contrast to Q2, when they referred to the magical 420k reservation number) and they had to announce the lower priced M3 (why would they do that already now if demand is still high for the higher priced model?). I also understand that they are emailing and calling the current reservation holders to try to persuade them into buying this lower priced version instead of waiting for the 35k model, so not really positive news with respect to demand.. To answer the question, one theory is that Panasonic has not been able to supply them with enough battery cells. The lower priced model uses a mid-range battery that likely contains 20% fewer cells and therefore they could produce 25% more cars. Another theory is that they have lowered their cost of production of the Model 3 such that they can produce the lower priced mid-range version profitably. Elon previously stated that they have to wait on delivering the $35k model until they can do so without losing money on it. Their behavior is consistent with the second theory. This company does not even advertise, is not yet offering the Model 3 to international markets, and people wonder if they are scrambling due to a demand problem.

There is still only one Tesla as well. Regarding the comparisons to Apple, I think they are really good comparisons. Owners of iMacs insist that they are far superior to PCs and they are willing to pay a premium for an iMac. Yet, despite this, there are PC enthusiasts as there will always be ICE enthusiasts. This comparison will be different if there are lots of well-executed fully electric competitors to Tesla -- I don't see the Taycan or the E-Tron getting in the way of the Model 3 adoption. Somebody will need to build a Model 3 competitor to slow down Tesla. People chose to pay a premium for iMacs despite there being a lack of software for it compared to a PC. People paid a premium for a Tesla despite there being a lack of charging options on the road compared to buying a cheaper gasoline model with a gas station everywhere.

Assessing deterioration of brand equity from grumbles on message boards is flawed IMO. There is self-selection bias involved. Today I asked a friend (who has a number of friends who own Model 3s) if they like their cars and whether they've needed things fixed. One of his friends got one of the early deliveries and needed a couple of things fixed (and he loves the car), but the more recent deliveries have been fine. My friend is a car enthusiast -- races Miatas as his past-time. Attached is our conversation from today. Separately, I ask people as they are stepping into or out of their Model 3s if they are happy -- nobody has been unhappy with their car. I believe that my method of assessing brand equity is a completely normal method without selection bias -- asking friends and people on the street. I feel that this is the method that prospective buyers will use to learn about the car and I feel that owners are recommending the car to people they speak to. Model3Reputation.pdf

It's a bit like assessing the brand value of panty hose without listening to women who actually wear them. Peter Lynch spoke to his wife.

I agree that shorting requires a greater burden of proof, but I disagree that there is a floor on the stock price at a valuation of $20-30B. You should consider the following: - Most assets are already pledged (either via asset-backed loans or like the Gigafactory that actually belongs to Panasonic) - Tesla's brand equity is decreasing (lot's of M3 quality issues, delivery issues, 420 tweet lawsuits, lack of investment in service centers) - Tesla is behind the competition with respect to Full Self Driving - This remains a one man show. What if Musk leaves or is forced to leave? - Bond markets are more sophisticated than equity markets. Tesla's debt is trading at CCC levels - Competition is coming. I admit it is a small sample size, but here in Belgium there are a lot of leased cars and my company (Deloitte) has selected the iPace instead of a Tesla at the executive level. Anyways, sales of model S and Model X are flat year-over-year so the growth should come from the M3, which, as indicated, still has lot's of quality issues. - Besides lack of intellectual property: if you believe that Tesla has some kind of manufacturing advantage, you should definitely read this article: https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/19/tesla-ceo-elon-musk-extreme-micro-manager.html - the article also touches upon further proof of accounting fraud (mechanics working at Fremont booking their time on "training" or "R&D") So all in all, this could definitely be a 0 imo. It's just odd to hear somebody say that the brand equity is decreasing when I see an invasion of Model 3 cars on the roads everyday.

I went to the Rocklin service center today with questions on the battery packs. Info collected 1). Battery packs will soon come down 30% in price 2). A refurbished Model S 85kwh replacement battery pack costs $17,000 3). A new Model S 85kwh replacement battery pack costs $25k now 4). Originally, a new Model S battery pack was about $48,000 They are planning on soon making available 100kwh replacement packs as upgrades for cars with smaller packs. He said the Gigafactory is responsible for the anticipated 30% upcoming price drop

I have bathroom anxiety when I travel long distances with kids so I take them in my Roadtrek Sprinter van. I just pull over to the shoulder on the freeway for their quick whizzz, and then get back onto the road.

I've been saying the same thing. Haven't had the courage to short-it (kudos to those who purchased puts!!!!), but Elon's behavior has been the 'tell' that the company isn't doing well IMO. We'll see how it shakes out, but I'm convinced not all is well beneath the hood. musk has been complaining about delivery logistics but an analyst stated that they delivered >95% of cars produced last Q. sounds like the guy is a brilliant but inveterate liar They had a large inventory of unsold vehicles at the end of Q2. They aren't sold until delivered to the customer. 12,000 unsold vehicles is only 2 or 3 weeks of production, and at $60,000 ASP it amounts to $720,000,000. What they managed to do (through a lot of effort) in Q3 was to dramatically increase production of the Model 3 while at the same time keeping unsold inventory constant.

Regarding the dealership model, Porsche has announced that the electric Taycan will be sold through dealerships. However, Audi has announced that it's E-Tron SUV will not be sold through dealerships.. https://electrek.co/2018/09/24/audi-electric-e-tron-suv-dealerships-inventory/ Is Porsche making a mistake? Why will it's dealers push the electric Taycan when the recurring servicing business is in the gas-powered vehicles to be pushed off the lot instead? I've heard that GM dealers have not been pushing the Bolt for this reason (lack of recurring servicing revenue), but I don't know if that is true.

Statistics show above average number of items that need to be fixed. Overlooked is whether the owners are overall very impressed with the car despite the issues. Given the massive amounts of Teslas on the road in the Bay Area, one would think the "secret" would be out by now. Surely the place must be crawling with upset owners, right? I don't think so.

Here is what I was thinking about in the car this morning: Musk, earlier this year, said that if they produced the $35k car today then Tesla would lose money and quickly die. His statement, when I view it, says that Tesla first needs to wring costs out of it's production before it can profitably produce the $35k Model 3. They recently reported 10,000 drive unit per day production at Gigafactory 1 which has been described as massively automated. They recently reported that battery pack production is down to 17 minutes per battery pack now whereas until recently it was 7 or 8 hours per battery pack. They appear to periodically flush out a relatively small backlog of high-end configuration Model 3s in "bursts" as a means of testing their production line for bottlenecks that they can then work on fixing -- meanwhile, as they are making fixes and cost improvements, they possibly wait until their high-end configuration backlog grows to a size where they can flush it once again with another burst. It may also be necessary to have down time between bursts to have parts inventories catch up to make possible another burst (presumably suppliers need to also scale up). They opened up their online ordering to the public in July and you can only order relatively expensive configurations (not the $35k car) -- I'll bet if you order the fully loaded $78,000 Performance model you'll then be served right away. Meanwhile, lower-end configuration Tesla's are starved in the queue. This is a sensible approach to stress testing their production line for bottlenecks while not losing money on low-end configuration cars in the process. Those cars will be produced once they've got their costs down -- a significant part of cost savings per car are achieved through scaling up production on the same line. That seems to me a sensible explanation for what is going on.

So you probably have a good explanation for: -the drop in VIN registrations in September: https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-tesla-tracker/ - the drop in M3 configurations reported to one of the Tesla bulls who is keeping track of which cars are being configured: https://twitter.com/jaberwock2/status/1046846065671118849 I don't have inside information. I feel as though if I don't provide you with an answer it will be heralded as proof that the Model 3 will not be produced again in volumes attained just a few weeks ago. Seriously.

We'll just have to wait and see with regards to that. Six years ago, they were working through their pent-up demand for the Model S: https://www.fool.com/investing/general/2015/04/03/tesla-motors-inc-reports-record-model-s-deliveries.aspx

It is true that their SUV mix has grown at the expense of their sedans, but it is still a nearly even split among the two: "BMW’s lineup of Sports Activity Vehicles accounted for 53.6 percent of BMW brand sales in August 2018. " https://www.press.bmwgroup.com/usa/article/detail/T0284604EN_US/bmw-group-u-s-reports-august-2018-sales?language=en_US Regardless, Tesla is currently outselling all BMW models put together in the US, not just sedans.

"Inventory glut" from Skabooska Are you concerned they don't have real buyers? I'm not concerned at all about that. BenHacker has a friend who has been waiting forever. You will have rising inventory if your production rate surpasses the delivery rate.

"Musk apparently sent an email to all employees that they are "very close to profitability". " It can be read a couple of ways. A) . They are very close to profitability if only everyone hustles with free delivery volunteers this weekend B). There are only a few days left before the books are closed on a profitable quarter We will see. There was other news that they are cranking out 10,000 drive units per week at their Gigafactory 1 plant. That's important as inverter supply was cited as a prior bottleneck.

I listened to the Q1 call last night. Musk was so defensive that he would not even dignify questions with answers. Then Q2 was a bloodbath. He was pretty cool on the Q2 call. Relaxed and apologetic. He might be someone with a terrible poker face who telegraphs the cards he is holding due to how much his identity is tied to Tesla. I wonder if his behavior on future calls will be a useful indicator.

It doesn't surprise me that "burst" cars need a rework -- what other types of "problems" would need addressing after a week of significantly higher burst production? Cars parked out in the desert or whatnot for later rework seem to logically fit their burst narrative. Put this another way... if the cars came out perfect during a "burst" week, for what other reasons would they need to scale back production again? Yes, they are fixing bottlenecks so that future burst weeks can be even higher, but when doing so they will introduce regressions. Some of the bottlenecks have been addressed (as described in the conference call) came about by redesigning parts so that they would be easier on the production line crew. I can only imagine that some of their tweaks and reworks will sometimes break things in the product. They only just started volume production this year and so if they noticed thousands of cars built with a problem they didn't find previously, they'll park those cars in the desert and scale back production to a level where they can build the cars without those problems for a period until they feel they can safely go back to another burst week. Why did Tesla only provide guidance for 55,000 cars in Q3 (4,000 per week) if they had a pre-conceived plot to actually report 6,000 cars per week? The narrative is that they are cooking the books to pump up the stock price -- so why not actually do that by promising 6,000 a week instead of 4,000? I don't have experience building cars but I have experience building software. It takes one mistake by a developer fixing a problem that, if not done right, leads to a product that has far more problems than the previous build. It sounds like the type of experience that Tesla is reporting: 2 steps forward, once step back. one step forward, 2 steps back. 4 steps forward, two steps back. Anyways, as others have pointed out, they didn't raise capital when they could have. The company is saying that they won't need to. Anyone trying to keep the stock afloat for a few more years would have raised the capital instead of just flying the airplane straight into the dirt, right? They chose to rely on internally generated cash flow -- they just might really be expecting it to materialize or else they would have raised the capital already.

They will produce higher than 4k/week numbers at times because they are ramping up in "bursts". The company I think said it was going to make about 55,000 cars in Q3 which is just a bit more than 4,000 a week. They achieve a new peak week of production and identify the bottlenecks, then they scale down again while they work on fixing the problems. Tesla has explained this. It is extraordinary that they have ramped up this fast this quickly and people are making a big deal that they are running into problems. It is to be expected that they will run into a lot of problems but they are getting through them as production ramps up. I read the comments of one of the departing Tesla executives and the reason given was that he felt like he was being ignored at Tesla. Fully translated, that probably means "Elon Musk will only listen to himself".