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ERICOPOLY

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Everything posted by ERICOPOLY

  1. That's assuming the lower energy costs are a bad thing. Perhaps... Less money spent heating homes, driving cars, and shipping goods around the world may lead to increased spending by consumers, which would lead to more broad-based factory utilization. The factory utilization problem was a result of too much on credit (having temporarily too high spending power) -- and then when oil prices went up in 2007 it didn't really help... it made it worse. So it could be reasoned that spending budgets are freed up when oil prices fall.
  2. Meanwhile, they dissed TSLA stock in their annual report. We'll see which stock does better in 20 years.
  3. I was out skiing all day. Just got back in. I don't remember where to look to find the warrant's current strike price (it has been adjusted for dividends). I think it's at about $13.02 though today after 7 quarters of 4 cent adjustments. $13.02+$5.07 = $18.09. $18.09 - $15.50 = $2.59 So there is $2.59 of premium in the warrant. A warrant is similar to a married put strategy. In this case, it's like having common married to a $13.02 put that expires in 3 years. But you could do a similar thing buying the common and the January 2018 put -- a 2 year married put strategy. The premium is about $1.30 for the 2 year put. Okay, so why does the premium in the warrant cost twice as much for what amounts to only 50% more time? It looks like a rip-off in my opinion. EDIT: Okay, some of the difference is the embedded margin interest in the warrant. I'm spoiled by the Interactive Brokers margin rates I guess. The warrants are not so bad if you are in an IRA account where you can't have margin loan or are with a high interest margin program.
  4. Stock is $15.80 today, tangible book was $15.50 last quarter, and a quarter has passed since then (earnings in 2 weeks). Likely trading at roughly tangible book today. So the odds of getting better than 10%-12% forward returns are quite high, even without any multiple expansion. Compared to the general market, not bad.
  5. He's an old-timey style value investor would be my guess. ZINC P/E: N/A according to Yahoo Finance. Alright, low blow. Agree with Picasso's general point.
  6. Zinc prices keep going down. High yield volatility could have been an issue as well since they'll have to renegotiate their debt. Of course there is no shortage of shorts for this thing... The tide is going out for the price of zinc commodity, and you can see who is swimming naked (ZINC).
  7. Does the Model S come with a spare tire and jack for people who don't wish to wait on the side of the road for 45min? It would be more convenient sometimes to just get home or to work/etc and then call for the replacement. No, they don't have a spare. You don't want to get stuck out of cell phone range. Wow, this seems like a serious safety issue to me, not having a spare. I would just drive on the flat if I were stuck. It would likely mean that I'd have to buy a new wheel, but so be it.
  8. Does the Model S come with a spare tire and jack for people who don't wish to wait on the side of the road for 45min? It would be more convenient sometimes to just get home or to work/etc and then call for the replacement. No, they don't have a spare. You don't want to get stuck out of cell phone range.
  9. I blew a tire on the local highway this past Friday and called the Tesla Roadside Assistance number. They said I should just hang tight for the next 45 minutes and a replacement wheel/tire would be installed roadside. The tow-truck arrived and the man apologized that he didn't have the replacement with him, so he asked if I'd like to be taken to the local Tesla Service Center -- about five miles away. He put my car on his flat-bed and off we went. Another 30 minutes later they've got the new loaner wheel/tire on my car and I'm driving off again. They said they'd have my tire repaired/replaced by Tuesday. Yesterday they announced that my wheel/tire was ready, and that the cost would be $550, so I drove back to the Service Center for the swap today. Once the car was ready, the service manager apologized for all the delays and inconvenience and told me that Tesla would not be charging me for anything. So I have a new tire now, at no cost.
  10. So the commission is approximately 10% due to the low share price. You would obviously get more value if the shares traded for a more typical share price -- $20 per share or something. But as discovered earlier in this thread, some shareholders just don't care because it doesn't affect them. I missed my chance to invest in the offering because it was hard enough getting a mortgage as it was -- I couldn't add to my holdings of illiquid stocks. It's not 10%. Assuming you buy 10K shares (you can get more with AoN, but you have to look at prices/order book), you are paying ~$60 commissions on 10K * $.15 = $1500. $60/$1500 = 4%. And Fido may or may not get you a bit better execution than $.15. If your limit order at $.15 fills at $.148, you just saved 1/3 of the commission. ;) Anyway, I agree with your other points somewhat. But this is really not about reverse split. It's about moving to TSX that Sanjeev promised as soon as practical. It's 8.7% if you take him at his word that it costs 0.15+ and the shares are going for 0.138. That's at 0.15. I just said "approximately" to account for the "+" he tacked on there.
  11. So the commission is approximately 10% due to the low share price. You would obviously get more value if the shares traded for a more typical share price -- $20 per share or something. But as discovered earlier in this thread, some shareholders just don't care because it doesn't affect them. I missed my chance to invest in the offering because it was hard enough getting a mortgage as it was -- I couldn't add to my holdings of illiquid stocks.
  12. That makes sense for the "improving trading" portion of his quote... ... because liquidity may "improve trading". However how does it make sense for the "associated costs" part?
  13. Alright guys, but to quote Sanjeev's post: A reverse split will improve trading and associated costs So what is he talking about if not commissions?
  14. Isn't it about reducing trading costs? Let's say you want to buy $100,000 of shares. I think the brokerage commission is going to be less if the shares are $100 each instead of 15 cents each.
  15. They will come to your home and either do the repair on-site, or bring a flatbed truck with a loaner Tesla that you drive while they take yours back to their service center. I've had both done. Obviously, the customer service is on point, but the very fact that you've had this done twice with a relatively new vehicle isn't supposed to be a cause for concern? The first time they came out to fix the issue in my driveway was a warranty repair. The glove box wouldn't open automatically when pushing the button (it's motor assisted) and they replaced that part and discovered a problem with the 12 volt battery and replaced that too. Actually, there were a lot of 12v batteries replaced in many Teslas of that vintage -- it was a common issue with a supplier I believe. Anyways, it was just the glove box. While there in my driveway, I mentioned that the car fishtailed a bit and he tightened down something -- I forgot the name of it, but it fixed the fishtailing. It was some sort of stabilizer bar that wasn't adjusted properly to the torque spec -- or whatever, I really forget the right lingo to describe it. The second issue that they came out with the flatbed for was just to install the underbody shield -- it was a recall issue. Remember the Teslas that caught on fire after the battery was punctured -- well they offered everyone this free armor plate and that's what they did. So when they brought out the flatbed, they left me with a loaner car to drive -- same configuration, exact same model. So really it was very convenient.
  16. They will come to your home and either do the repair on-site, or bring a flatbed truck with a loaner Tesla that you drive while they take yours back to their service center. I've had both done.
  17. Viagra, Cialis, and Levitra need to be prescribed by a doctor, lower blood pressure, and are not supposed to be mixed with alcohol, and are quite expensive. I'm not sure Addyi will be a hit, but I doubt the blood pressure thing is what is causing the low sales, and would imagine it is due to low market awareness and low availabilty. I spoke to my wife's internist (her best friend) about Addyi. She has a lot of female clients/patients. She said it's a joke. Not a single one of her clients wants it. It's expensive and at best it maybe leads to desire once a month. I mean, come on, that's not going to be a blockbuster drug. She was pretty much laughing. It's not a low awareness/visibility thing -- it's a low effectiveness thing.
  18. A great book is The Empire of the Summer Moon. No, it's not about ISIS, it's about the Comanche. I keep thinking about that book whenever I hear about ISIS. Don't think it's politically correct the word "Terrorists" when discussing the Comanche, but there's the term "Comanche Moon" for a reason. Their tactics were pretty extreme (for example, raping old women after staking them to the ground with their lances and slowly roasting a 6 year old girl over a spit). I don't know if it's political correctness or what, but we don't refer to them as a terror organization. However back in the day, the Texans went pretty damn crazy over it and a lot of tribes were persecuted who had nothing to do with the Comanche. So let's not go too overboard and throw every immigrant in with ISIS. Here is the very abbreviated version: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2396760/How-Comanche-Indians-butchered-babies-roasted-enemies-alive.html
  19. Somebody buying a put could be extremely bullish on the stock. You don't know why they buy the put. One reason could be that they are buying more common shares using debt and they buy the put so that it's non-recourse debt. One never knows. Anyway, I think you made a typo in your post -- 30% is a lot more than 79 cents.
  20. Currency impact was 9%. The System X sale accounts for the rest. This division was unprofitable, so it wouldn't have same impact on bottom line. Right, that was in the press release that I was reading the numbers from. 1% isn't that bad overall if there are higher margin businesses growing at a fast pace. Is it the case that those businesses aren't growing as fast as expected, or is it that the others are declining faster than expected? I would think the answer to that is important. It is a lot worse if their "strategic" fast growers are disappointing their prior expectations, and really not nearly as much of an issue if their declining businesses are declining faster than originally thought.
  21. Isn't revenue from continuing operations only down 1% in the latest quarter if you back out the currency movements and a divestiture? Revenue was down 14% including the currency movements. So currency movement juiced the decline in revenue by 1300 basis points. Here were the last quarter numbers for net income: 14 percent decline in net income( GAAP ) 11 percent decline in net income (non GAAP) It's tempting to be lazy and back 1300 basis points out of the net income numbers 1% net income decline (GAAP) 2% net income increase (non GAAP) It sort of looks like they'll have revenue growth in a few years as their "strategic imperatives" (which are growing rapidly) become a larger portion of the pie?
  22. ERICOPOLY

    Ask Eric!

    Do these other courses make it easier to study? http://crushthefinancialanalystexam.com/best-cfa-study-materials/
  23. ERICOPOLY

    Ask Eric!

    There are various websites selling study notes etc... Can someone help with pointing to a good website and set of study materials? Online course? Thanks.
  24. Found a funny, conspiratorial article (produced sometime around 2002) that claimed the Fed always tightened during an election year when Democrats were in office all the way back to 1960. Because they are a "defacto agent of the Republican campaign committee". http://davidbrubaker.info/FedIntRateChart.v3.pdf It looks like we broke the pattern 4 years ago when rates were not raised during the Obama/Romney cycle. Conspiracies aside, it seems to suggest the economy gets overheated by the end of a Democratic term and is too choked off by the end of a Republican term? Ha ha. It said not only does it always raise rate at the end of the Democratic term, it also always cuts them at the end of the Republican term.
  25. Driven, entirely, by will China drag down the US along with it... or won't it. And it only takes 1 month of jobs data to have the conclusive answer on the attendant rate hike speculation. Viva Las Vegas.
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