BRK7

great ideas, thanks -- both koyfin and tikr look promising. does anyone who has used both care to comment on their strengths & weaknesses?

I have used Capital IQ for many years as an investment professional. I plan to soon retire, and Capital IQ (cost of $20K+/year) is not a cost-effective option going forward for managing my personal investments. I am wondering if there is an alternative high-quality product that has a cost structure that is more reasonable for private investors? For those who are not familiar with Capital IQ, it is essentially a comprehensive database of information related to companies and markets. Many years of historical data is provided, and the information is generally hyperlinked so that you can jump to original source (for example, SEC filing) to dig deeper. The database also provides analytics (e.g, valuation and liquidity ratios) across its universe of coverage. I'm hopeful that there is a more consumer-oriented product that will be adequate for my (less comprehensive) needs going forward. I will primarily be interested in US business and their underlying publicly-traded securities. Thanks for any thoughts or ideas!

Just took a quick look. Looks great in terms of margins, and balance sheet. But, then I discovered that 5-year revenue CAGR is -6%. Is the business in secular decline?

this just in: https://www.wsj.com/articles/carmax-only-looks-like-a-lemon-11600964848

My thoughts exactly.

KMX just posted a quarter that was well above expectations. Further, mgmt indicates the current Q tracking well. Yet, the stock is presently down ~13%. Thoughts?

French gov't institution (together with "tourism industry") to build platform to complete with Airbnb, Booking: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-14/france-to-build-online-platform-to-rival-airbnb-booking-com?sref=DWzi38c2 https://seekingalpha.com/news/3574572-airbnb-booking-getting-new-competitor-in-france?utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha&mail_subject=bkng-airbnb-booking-getting-new-competitor-in-france&utm_campaign=rta-stock-news&utm_content=link-1 Wondering what you guys think of this development?

So, CVNA reported 1Q results last night. Revenue was +45% in line with expectations. But the net loss grew by 122%, and the reported EPS of -$1.18 was, $0.59 shy of consensus, according to Seeking Alpha. I found the conference call to be was surreal in how promotional/positive it was. Maybe it worked---the stock is up 10% today and approaching $100, even as Morgan Stanley lowered its price target to $23. On the other hand, there are major brokerage firms with a bullish view. However it ends up, this is going to be interesting.

Charlie will not be part of the Q&A this year: https://berkshirehathaway.com/meet01/2020Meetinginfo-apr2620.pdf

Good point -- the S&P 500 is market-cap weighed and skewed by the likes of Amazon, with its $1.2T market cap and 30% YTD gain. Meanwhile, the Russell 2000 (while also market cap weighted, it's a better proxy for small cap performance) is down approx 26%. And then there are lots of companies in hospitality/travel/leisure/consumer discretionary that have been absolutely clobbered.

Compared with smaller independents, larger chains typically have greater access to capital markets as well as greater diversification, in terms of geographic location of their lodging assets (i.e., well-performing locations can subsidize under-performers). If a small independent hotel gets wiped out due to prolonged period of low occupancy, here are a few scenarios: A) Larger hotel chain buys the building, gives it a makeover, and folds it into their existing, branded network. B) Independent hotel re-opens under new independent ownership, but likely has to “re-establish” its reputation/branding/rating to an extent. C) In some cases, bankruptcy COULD take supply out the market—e.g., building gets repurposed as nursing home, executive suites, etc.—though I’m not unduly worried about this possibility. The point is that some of these independents are going to get wiped out, and, on balance, I think this is a negative for Booking. Not a thesis-breaker, but something to be aware of.

gfp, I agree completely. Nonetheless, CVNA has historically been a VERY difficult short position to maintain. Since CVNA’s April 2017 IPO, the shares are up more than 700%! Over the same period, KMX has appreciated less than 15%. Even a paired trade (long KMX/short CVNA) would have been a disaster over the period. You could’ve made some money shorting CVNA along the way, but your TIMING (in terms of opening and closing the short) would have to have been fantastic. Anyway, you might find some value in the below SHORT presentation. I have no affiliation whatsoever with the author, Spruce Point. See the PDF/download link at the bottom of the below page: https://www.sprucepointcap.com/carvana-co-update/

Yep, CVNA closed today at $87.81, up 199% from it's low on March 20, just before the below: March 24: Ally increases its loan purchase program to $2B (Oddly, the press release says the program was doubled in size, while the 8-K says the agreement was up-sized by $1.6B. I'm not sure what to make of the discrepancy). April 2: Carvana raises $600 million in equity, including a combined $50 million from the founder/CEO and his father, the controlling shareholder. Ally itself is trading like it is distressed, down about 53% YTD, and soon needs to pay $1.35B to fund an acquisition it announced on Feb 18 (planned to close in 3Q). The CVNA equity raise was at $45/share, massively dilutive compared to CVNA's Feb 21 close of $110/share. Somehow, this company continues to defy gravity. CVNA is down about 4% YTD, compared to a 13% YTD decline in the S&P500.

RVP, thanks for your reply; I generally agree with what you’ve written—in particular, that Booking’s moat is actually in supply scale and first mover advantage. That said, it seems likely that, going forward, Booking will be increasingly competing with (for example) Expedia in terms of paid search dollars to Google. This is not catastrophic for Booking, but I believe it is a negative development to some unknown degree. I’m not terribly worried about Google becoming a head-to-head competitor with OTAs. If I thought it made sense for Google to do so, I wouldn’t even take a second look at BKNG (except possibly to short it). On an unrelated note, I’m wondering to what extent the COVID-19 pandemic disproportionately impacts the smaller “independent” hotels (vs the large chains) which are so important to the investment thesis. In other words, some of this “supply” might be eliminated, which is not a temporary setback. Again, I'm not disputing the strength of Booking's business model, but rather trying to get a better handle on the risks.

The MOI YouTube presentation demonstrates that competitors Expedia & TripAdvisor drive traffic to their sites via FREE (SEO) links, whereas Booking drives (and has historically driven) it's traffic via PAID search. The presenter makes the case that this is Booking's moat: "paying Google protects [booking] from the competition." Maybe I'm misunderstanding the situation here, but I don't see a moat in this particular aspect of Booking's business--for the simple reason that Google would be happy to take more paid search $ from Expedia & TripAdvisor. If, as the presenter suggests, the ROI on free search has suffered due to the introduction of Google-Travel, why wouldn't Expedia & TripAdvisor simply shift strategy and start allocating more $ to paid Google search? It seems inevitable. Sure, the margins at Expedia & TripAdvisor might suffer if their customer acquisition costs increase, but it would also be a negative for Booking because Booking would have more competition in this important customer acquisition channel. In other words, Booking's spend with Google would likely have to increase in order to maintain its relative ranking within the Google search universe. Google is the obvious victor in the above scenario. Booking has been very successful over time and I'm not questioning that they have a strong business model, but I just don't see a sustainable competitive advantage in this aspect. Thoughts?