A_Hamilton

Xeres, they literally could not sell their position in Blackberry when it spiked last time because all of the proceeds would have had to have been remitted to Blackberry. Short swing profits rule.

Positive. Prem is on the board, so he is an insider, subject to blackout. Also, FFH owns ~20% of shares out via the converts. In the U.S. you are "deemed" an insider when you own over 10% of a company...so regardless of whether Prem is on the board or not FFH would be considered an insider. From my perspective, best we can do is hope that BB halts its own stock news pending and preleases results today/after market close/over the weekend and then FFH can trade in two days...

More I think about this FFH is definitely blacked out. Going to need an earnings pre-release and wait for two days of trading to take advantage.

Quarter just ended for BB so they could be blacked out from trading.

Roger Lace was like $13 Canadian, Wade Burton waited a bit longer and got $24 canadian. So can drive a truck through the difference in price. Regardless seems likely some monetization to take place here / may have already this morning.

The annual says on page 95 that they have repurchased for cancellation 137,923 shares and then 42,197 shares for treasury thru 3/4.

Petec, just so you know I think you are comparing some apples and oranges figures (this is due to the way FFH presents things). The $662 million FFH refers to is the market value of the common equities at 12/31 being less than the fair value by $662 million as laid out by Prem on page 10 of the annual report (due mainly to Eurobank and Quess). The $712 million figure that was mentioned by Jen Allen on the call corresponds to the Investment in Associates fair value over carrying value at 12/31/20 as laid out on page 72 of the annual. The biggest driver between these tables is the private insurance holdings (Eurolife, Thai Re, Go Digit) and then FFH India. FFH's comment on the call and then in the annual letter was that the fair value of the common as laid out by Prem on page 10 of the annual is now above that of their carrying value. These are very different statements so just want to be clear there. A good portion of Q1's gains (to the extent market stays up) then will simply go to having the carrying value and market value of the common equities be much closer.

I don't think it would be the wrong response to exit if Prem didn't sell unless there were some kind of blackout period having prevented FFH from trading. I agree too with Petec's point that a lot of this is about the fact that the company could use some higher capital levels to take advantage of the hard market. They are somewhat fortunate so far that the hard market is stronger outside of catastrophe reinsurance because their just isn't the balance sheet to write that substantially right now and end up with 140% combineds for a few quarters if you get a bad hurricane season.

Where are you coming up with 5 days? I have never seen a 13D amendment issued later than one day after a change of 100 basis points or more change in position size. The SEC rule is that you must file promptly. Blackberry is U.S. listed and files a 10-K so can't imagine Canadian rules apply. Per SEDI Wade Burton sold some shares today and Roger Lace sold some last week. It is going to be a very hard conversation if two senior members of Hamblin Watsa sold shares but Prem wouldn't let FFH sell any. Holding out hope FFH used a total return swap to reduce their notional exposure and somehow convinced themselves via their attorney that they don't need to file an amendment as the TRS is cash settled and not a security. But I'm thinking that is a long shot at this point.

Just look at the 13D. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/915191/000110465920101936/a20-30061_1sc13da.htm FFH owns $330 million of converts at $6 for 55 million shares. Then they own 46.583 million common.

Knowing that it is mid-BB's fiscal Q4 and BB came out today and said there isn't any material non-public information out there, it seems likely FFH can sell. On 1, I just don't see how this is possible. 354 million shares traded today. Even if they were 10% of the volume they should have been able to exit a substantial majority of the common they control. The improvement in their capital position has to be top of mind right now especially with a hard market in hand... fingers crossed we get an exit here.

Come on Prem...where is the SC13D/A saying you've unloaded the common FFH owns and have converted the debentures into common...

Who knows what will happen here, but it appears RFP finally has some legs with lumber continuing to sustain all-time high prices, pulp prices coming off the bottom and the company finally getting a bit of EBITDA from tissue. They also appear to be repurchasing shares hand over fist. Increase in the pension liability will be a nightmare again, but seems like things are trending in the right direction for the first time in a while here.

Especially when you rewrote your convert. This.... 7$/share wouldn't have been anything previously with Fairfax's ability to convert to 50 million shares @ $10. But now Fairfax gets to convert into 55 million shares @ $6 - meaning they're ~$100 million in the money for bonds that wouldn't have been worth more than par back in September. Have you (or has any board participant) calculated FFH's break-even on its full investment in BB? It's mostly irrelevant because you cannot change your entry price, you can only choose whether to exit, but I am a bit curious. My mental guess would be about $10/sh, but that's just the result of faint memories of past discussions and accounting for the new conversion privilege for 55m shares. The prospect of exiting the BB position on a break-even basis (or gasp! a profitable basis) is encouraging. It's been a long ten years. <EDIT> Answering my own question, here's a bit of work that Valuehalla did a few years ago: https://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/fairfax-financial/fairfax-2017-15646/msg320753/#msg320753 SJ It's much higher than this. You'd have to look at old NAIC filings, but FFH didn't only own common equity it bought in the high $40's and low $50's, but also owned total return swaps long in RIMM / Blackberry. Glad there is the potential for a positive result form here.

Another 3.8 million shares repurchased from Sep 1 through October 8th. 1.5% of shares out. A 30% reduction in less than three years. This has to work at some point.