whistlerbumps

Anyone looked at Park Aerospace (PKE)? Got hurt by COVID but now should benefit from the recovery of A320 production. EBITDA is expected to grow 80% this year and they used to have forecasts that could have it almost 4x from current levels in a few years. Nice programs with high ROIC so should probably get a good multiple on that cash flow if the growth comes as expected. Also has an M&A angle with over $100mln of net cash. Could be accretive if they find the right asset. Owner operator owns almost 5% and his siblings own another 5% and have been shareholder friendly in the past. Curious if anyone here has ever looked at it.

Curious if anyone has looked at PKE. PKE is a provider of composite materials, mainly around engines for military, biz jet and commercial aircraft. Given that the company is tied to OEM production, the pandemic was painful. PKE's largest program is the A320 and Airbus cut production during 2020, a decline which was amplified by inventory cuts throughout the supply chain. However, we are past the end of the downturn and Airbus has announced an increase in A320 production and PKE EBITDA is expected to almost double in the coming FY. PKE is a good business with ~25% ROIC next year and strong growth path for the next few years (EBITDA high 20s+ a couple of years out). Also has ~$6 per share of net cash which they could put towards an accretive acquisition. Does anyone have thoughts on this one?

Other english presentation qliro-group-equity-issue-august-2020.pdf

You can find the old Qliro (now Nelly) quarterly reports in English where CDON was a segment: https://www.nellygroup.com/en/investors/ Attached are two presentations in English CDON_Q3.pdf

Has anyone looked at CDON? Just spun out of Qliro in Nov and is a leading e-commerce marketplace in the Nordics. Growing 3P GMV rapidly (~100% 2020 YTD and grew 75% and 100% in the two quarters pre-COVID so not just a COVID boost). Growth is a bit hidden because they are shrinking a 1P business (revenue=GMV) while the 3p business (revenue ~10% of GMV). E-commerce marketplaces are good businesses at scale and CDON is the leader in an underpenetrated market. Not that profitable currently due to lack of scale but costs are mainly fixed so growth should drop to the bottom line and EBITDA in a few years could be multiples of what it is today. Trades at 0.4x GMV vs peers and transactions at closer to 2.5-3x. Curious if anyone has looked at it or has any thoughts...

CEO and CFO buys AWRE: Aware Inc Ma - Eckel Robert A (CEO,PR,DIR) Bought (B) 10k shares @ $2.79 2020-11-20 22:20:48.600 GMT AWRE: Aware Inc Ma - Barcelo David Brian (CFO) Bought (B) 15k shares @ $2.72 2020-11-20 22:21:14.590 GMT

Ratiman, why did you choose to only include AUM years up to 2018? New CEO joined in Jan 2019 and outflows have been much better since then. MN had very bad performance from 2014 -2016 which really hurt their AUM growth. They have generally had good performance since then and so their 3 and 5 year track records have now recovered which should help with AUM going forward. I would argue that new management is both highly capable and highly motivated to receive value for their shares Employees and board own 31% of fully diluted shares, they have bought in the open market, and CEO Mayer's options ladder to 7.75. I agree if AUM takes the path of 2013-18 then this investment won't work. However even if AUM continues to decline, I think its hard to loose too much given the cash position and lack of burn. If AUM stabilizes, then 0.10% of AUM seems way to low to me.

Manning & Napier (MN) is an asset manager. At $4, the company has a $95mln market cap and $75mln of net cash for a ~20mln EV. Current AUM is $19.2bln so 0.10% of AUM. TTM Net Income adjusted for restructuring charges is ~54c per share so an adj P/E of 7.4x. The company hired a new CEO Marc Mayer in early 2019. Since arriving Mayer has upgraded the company's old technology and cut expenses to drive profitability. He has publicly discussed a goal of 20mln of EBIT. Mayer's compensation includes an options package that ladder vests from $3.25 to $7.75. Insiders have bought >400k shares since Mayer's appointment including at prices up to $4.47 per share (although most of the shares were purchased below $2 before a very accretive buyback in early 2020). Key question is whether they can stabilize AUM. Outflows have continued to improve since Mayer's appointment but inflows have not improved yet (company blames COVID on slowing progress). Mayer has commented that he is seeing green shoots but that remains to be seen. Overall, seems like a very cheap option on a potential turnaround with an incentivized management team.

I agree M&A is a critical issue here. The hope is that their partners push something distressed to them that is a good fit. Brian is certainly patient so the risk to me is more that the cash sits around and they miss the chance rather than they overpay for an asset. We will see though.

Good interview with RF here. https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/automotive-and-assembly/our-insights/car-dealers-must-become-technology-companies-an-interview-with-the-ceo-of-vertu-motors?cid=other-soc-twi-mip-mck-oth---&sid=3778829180&linkId=100680268#

Interesting on current NY environment.. $39/sq ft for Midtown Manhattan is not consistent with the NYC office REITs current valuations. $ESRT $SLG $VNO

MN looks pretty interesting. 82mln market cap, 65mln of net cash as of Q2. Potential turnaround story under a new CEO who is investing in technology and cutting costs. TTM EBIT margin is 3% as reported but 12% when you remove restructuring expenses and should go higher as turnaround plans bear fruit. AUM is the big question but some positive signs there as both inflows and outflows have improved. The investment performance has been strong and the company has finally started to cycle out some very weak years from 2014/15. Trades at 10% of AUM and 6x adj EPS. Anyone looked at this?

Jon Litt is a bit of a clown from my private sources. haha fair enough... I have no personal information about him but figured it would be worth sharing his thoughts...

short argument for NYC office properties. Focuses on ESRT but obviously PGRE faces the same headwinds. Thought it might be useful for people here. https://landandbuildings.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/LandB-NYC-Office-Facing-Existential-Hurricane-1.pdf

$10mln repurchase authorized and CEO bought 15k shares. (WSA) Robert A Eckel,C.E.O.,Buys 15,000 from 5/7/20-5/8/20 of AWRE Robert A Eckel,C.E.O.,Buys 15,000 from 5/7/20-5/8/20 of AWRE 2020-05-11 20:07:22.84 GMT The following transactions were reported by Robert A Eckel of Aware Inc on a Form 4 filed with the S.E.C. on May 11, 2020: Date(s) Trans Type Shares Price(s) ------------------- -------------- --------------- ----------------------- 5/7/20 - 5/8/20 Purchase 15,000 $2.62-$2.74