tombgrt

My CRC leaps aren't doing all that bad either. 250% move in a day ain't bad at all.

Don't agree on simply printing more money as the way out for Europe. We tried that already and look where it got us. Alternative is actually distributing money directly to the citizens (helicopter money) which I believe would have a greater impact. The ECB has been hinting for some time now that it would prefer countries like Germany and The Netherlands to invest heavily in infrastructure to boost economic growth and pull the weaker countries up with them as they have the budgetary flexibility to do so. My intuition tells me this would have the biggest impact and financially it makes sense. Germany is at 60% debt/gdp. At current negative intrest rates they should go for a higher debt/gdp percentage imo. Even at 100% debt/gdp, as long as your growth is higher than you cost of debt, you win in the long term. Also, remember that Japan, while not exactly thriving, didn't completely fuck up either, despite the intrest rates and debt being where they are. Standard of living remained stable. Europeans might just have to accept the fact that it's time for others to grow and prosper, while most European countries will stagnate for years.

Prolonged curtailment is especially good for the microcaps like Gear that produce below the 10,000 b/day treshold and thus aren't even impacted on their production. Of course enough pipeline capacity would be better but this curtailment is much preferred to the extreme discounts we've seen last year. Valuations remain insane as it has become more clear than ever before that for now, $45-50 wti truly is as low as shale can go if they want to see any future production growth, even if majors would take over completely. Not to mention access to capital is drying up completely. No one else able to fill the gap in the next few years. In the end all companies will need a stable period of stronger pricing to increase valuations however. In the meantime I also hope they focus on deleveraging and share buybacks where possible.

Can anyone give me an update on the mathematics of the coin toss, please? Is this still a 50/50 given it has dropped 50% from the last coin toss on 03/11? I'm a bit confused. Thank you in advance for your expertise.

Oh, is that all? Also, enlighten me. Why does it deserve industry average valuation?

Quite certain Iran is getting plenty of oil out. Simply no way they aren't.

Well, something isn't adding up. Especially in the case demand is being understated. Iran exports are supposed to be at 0.4 mm bd, us adjustment numbers are going parabolic, inventories rising everywhere, Venezuela down the frapper, OPEC still cutting. I have no clue anymore. I officially feel that it is impossible to get market direction right even over a longer time horizon.

What did you do, grab value line book and start in the 'F' section? It was the 1,245th page in the ten-bagger thread that finally convinced me. I set posts per page on 50 so the investment ideas get more attractive...

Would you mind sharing (even generally) the timeframe and strikes you're looking at here. I like this idea, but man some of those options are expensive. Be curious to hear how you're thinking about in the money/at the money/out of the money. Yes, super expensive given volatility and nearly always are. :( But considering the leverage and upside potential it would be nuts if they were cheap obviously. When you know their net debt is around $5b vs market cap of $1b, you know the potential stock appreciation is huge. Consistent higher Brent prices simply balloon their CFs and reserves values and this is something the stock price will exponentially reflect. Most are jan 2020 which of course are not technically LEAPS but should be more than long enough to capture a nice return. (If we don't see higher pricing in 2019, I'm not sure we would in 2020 either.) These 2019's I obviously sell first. Others are jan 2021. I've bought both ATM and OTM but generally prefer to buy them well OTM at strike $30-40 which is a realistic level as to not risk them expiring worthless and otherwise doesn't require a high cash outlay. These OTM options also actually act more as options of course vs deeply ITM options. ;) No use going for very high delta options for this stock anyway as the atraction to me is in the 'leverage times leverage component'. Also generally found tighter spreads in the OTM options, probably due to higher volumes. Sure, I could go for a call spread but I'm also fairly bullish on oil for the next 12 months so I'm not willing to bother. :-X It's a highly speculative bet that paid off very well last year (various sold at 800%+ returns of those that I bought around a stock price of $15). You could say these options are now bought mainly with 'house money' as I can now buy these with last year's winnings. So obviously psychologically I'm more willing to swing for the fences. But to me it makes more sense than laying out a multiple of that capital to buy the stock itself. Company looks cheaper today given current Buena Vista oil pricing, macro situation, extra JVs in place and small debt paydown they already had. They also have much less overhang from the hedges with more upside potential. + I don't see the bill getting far for a couple of reasons. CRC also has plenty of JV's with the state and they count on a great deal of tax revenue from them. Trump's administration was actually looking at expanding land permits for oil extraction so certainly some political headwinds on various levels of government as well. Not to mention gas prices would go ballistic if operations of CRC & co really got impacted in the next few years. Just some posturing by Newsom to please some of the voter base, IMO. So the sell off to me looks overdone and provided me with a decent opportunity to jump in. The announcement of more JVs could also be a great catalyst for the stock. Management is certainly making the right strategic steps. They simply got dealt a poor hand. Hope this helps! AB 345 dead for this year! CRC back up to $22 which is a start.

All we know is that these members often have plenty of nephews and are generally inclined to construct oddly phrased and far-fetched posts.

Would you mind sharing (even generally) the timeframe and strikes you're looking at here. I like this idea, but man some of those options are expensive. Be curious to hear how you're thinking about in the money/at the money/out of the money. Yes, super expensive given volatility and nearly always are. :( But considering the leverage and upside potential it would be nuts if they were cheap obviously. When you know their net debt is around $5b vs market cap of $1b, you know the potential stock appreciation is huge. Consistent higher Brent prices simply balloon their CFs and reserves values and this is something the stock price will exponentially reflect. Most are jan 2020 which of course are not technically LEAPS but should be more than long enough to capture a nice return. (If we don't see higher pricing in 2019, I'm not sure we would in 2020 either.) These 2019's I obviously sell first. Others are jan 2021. I've bought both ATM and OTM but generally prefer to buy them well OTM at strike $30-40 which is a realistic level as to not risk them expiring worthless and otherwise doesn't require a high cash outlay. These OTM options also actually act more as options of course vs deeply ITM options. ;) No use going for very high delta options for this stock anyway as the atraction to me is in the 'leverage times leverage component'. Also generally found tighter spreads in the OTM options, probably due to higher volumes. Sure, I could go for a call spread but I'm also fairly bullish on oil for the next 12 months so I'm not willing to bother. :-X It's a highly speculative bet that paid off very well last year (various sold at 800%+ returns of those that I bought around a stock price of $15). You could say these options are now bought mainly with 'house money' as I can now buy these with last year's winnings. So obviously psychologically I'm more willing to swing for the fences. But to me it makes more sense than laying out a multiple of that capital to buy the stock itself. Company looks cheaper today given current Buena Vista oil pricing, macro situation, extra JVs in place and small debt paydown they already had. They also have much less overhang from the hedges with more upside potential. + I don't see the bill getting far for a couple of reasons. CRC also has plenty of JV's with the state and they count on a great deal of tax revenue from them. Trump's administration was actually looking at expanding land permits for oil extraction so certainly some political headwinds on various levels of government as well. Not to mention gas prices would go ballistic if operations of CRC & co really got impacted in the next few years. Just some posturing by Newsom to please some of the voter base, IMO. So the sell off to me looks overdone and provided me with a decent opportunity to jump in. The announcement of more JVs could also be a great catalyst for the stock. Management is certainly making the right strategic steps. They simply got dealt a poor hand. Hope this helps!

Saying the worst investment decision is what you didn't do always struck me as a bit of a humblebrag. Surely Buffett could point to some bad decisions of commission. The dollars involved may be lower but they are more like mistakes in my mind. I'm thinking Dexter Shoe and IBM particularly, though I'm sure there are others. Agreed. And Berkshire itself of course comes to mind. ;-)

Bought a boatload of CRC LEAPS today. Painful to do but hopefully with a good return like last year. Basically crashed yesterday (and lost 10% days before) following a bill in California to restrict drilling, news that was already known on Tuesday. Purely sentimental selling if you ask me. Bill unlikely to go through. But even if it did, it would hardly be the end of CRC. Given that CRC is an option on brent prices already, you might as well leverage that leverage with options. Binary outcome most likely (either they survive and are a multibagger or they become a zero at some point) so much preferable about regular stock.

Ha! Buffett didn't buy Amazon. What a loser! Really deserves his spot here obviously! Seriously, if these are their worst calls I want to be in their shoes...

Yes, he just writes trash in every article and doesn't really seem to know much about valuation.