given2invest

With ~150m shares that would imply $1.40. Seems quite optimistic eh? Would be nice, we will see .. I own this. I wouldn't pay too much to that. That said, I'm very optimistic we get $2 here. It would seem the "easy" $1 will be 2050 going into P3. If it doesn't happen in the primary indication (the P2 trial is going on right now) we have a bunch of shots on goal with the bucket they running this year. It's hard to handicap whether the P3 of 2040 is successful but the endpoints are the same as the very successful P2 trial and that wasn't data mined or anything.

Yes. They filed a 5% position on GME in the fall. No clue of course if they still hold.

Holy cow, up 17% in December Book is now north of $400 prob close to $450 - and above the high water mark Stock $179 - biggest NAV discount ever I think

I mean, yah, your million dollar question. Of course I don't know the answer. But they are running tests in a few cities in just a few categories to figure this out. Market won't care if take rates go down a lot if they ever show growth again. But the real opportunity right now is COVID rebound + a possible M&A transaction.

Did you get $300 NAV counting Oct returns? Just curious I haven't looked yet. I agree, discount will not close or even get smaller w/o years of good returns.

Did another video on GRPN. I'm linking it to where I start discussing it.

+1, great job given2invest on laying out the thesis in your video. It was very persuasive and I had penciled in 132, so 131.50 sounds pretty good to me. nice place to park leading up to an election. Good analysis, well communicated. thanks much. very pleased with the outcome.

Faber reports in indirect talks to settle. You don't say?

I wish it had your conviction on binary bets like TIF and BMYRT. BMYRT is interesting when looking at baseline probabilities, but when I think that a hourly paid tech could “save” BMY more than $6B by “forgetting” a moldy 6 month old sandwich or a dead mouse when the FDA inspect the area, I think baseline approval rates may not quite apply here. Yes, note I haven't said BMYRT is 95%. And I haven't even posted that on this website. This is about TIF. But happy to discuss BMYRT and the hourly paid tech who is going to commit financial fraud for someone senior who asked him or her to leave a moldy sandwich or a dead mouse around...where they would both go to jail. TIF is not a binary bet like BMYRT. It's not "0 or 1" There are outcomes outside of that and none of them are a 0!

given2invest, I just have to say, it's beyond me, that you've put a large part of your capital on the line on this bet [[as far as I understand your bet, from the video linked to by you] like 20% long TIF]]. As always, some fare well, some don't. You may end up being right, though, personally, I simply can't in any way process the odds here, - too much "noise" etc. Hi John I've been doing this for literally decades so I think I kind of know what I'm doing. I actually think 20% is quite conservative here. The opportunity is precisely your view, that there is noise, that it might involve government risk, etc. I see none of it anymore. Regards Matt Downside, if deal falls apart :$80 (worst case) - $100 (bull case), let call it blended $90, so $25 downside Upside, if deal executes: $125 (worst case, $10 discount). $135 (bull case, no discount), so $15 upside. Expected outcome =x*15-(1-x)*25>0 (x= probability of deal going though ) Looks like the breakeven point is when you see a 62.5% chance of the deal going through. Of course the haircuts are mine and there are possible scenarios out of the $ range above. Seems reasonable, but I would better odds. (Edited math) I'm at 95% the deal goes through. Can watch my video above to see why. I do not think the 125 and 135 outcomes are equal weight or even close to equal weight. My EV of the 95% outcome is north of $132

given2invest, I just have to say, it's beyond me, that you've put a large part of your capital on the line on this bet [[as far as I understand your bet, from the video linked to by you] like 20% long TIF]]. As always, some fare well, some don't. You may end up being right, though, personally, I simply can't in any way process the odds here, - too much "noise" etc. Hi John I've been doing this for literally decades so I think I kind of know what I'm doing. I actually think 20% is quite conservative here. The opportunity is precisely your view, that there is noise, that it might involve government risk, etc. I see none of it anymore. Regards Matt

Of course they are suing. This deal is done for, but TIF probably will get a little bit of cash out of it to settle. The undisturbed, pre COVID price of TIF is ~$85/ share if I see this correctly. Hi, why do you think this deal is done for? Because the positions seem hardened and I don’t think Arnault is someone who flip flops. My assessment that the deal doesn’t happen may well be wrong, based on the input here. The letter from the french government is a joke anyways, it does not even sound like a binding order, more like a recommendation and of course it was solicited from Arnault. I do think Arnault is stalling here and either waits for Situation to improve or just get a few bucks off and consummate the merger and call it a day. Or perhaps he has an ace in its sleeve that we haven’t seen yet. His ace up his sleeve was the fake letter and it failed. He has nothing else. This will either close on terms after trial or TIF will cut a few bucks and it will close.

I like GRPN a lot here. I talk about the long thesis here: And yes, I was long and wrong before but I did not own it in Feb when it blew up and didn't re-enter until July.

I discussed TIF here:

I guess one of Sardar's relatives is a member of this forum. Or Sardar himself! Cause it's the only explanation for why anyone would defend this guy.