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Everything posted by Liberty
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Sounds like you have some kind of malware messing with you.
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200m investment in Grab: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-grab-funding-booking-holdings/booking-holdings-becomes-latest-investor-in-southeast-asias-grab-idUSKCN1N31H3
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https://www.wsj.com/articles/when-it-comes-to-sleep-one-size-fits-all-1540481975
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Are you using 5.5% as ur ebitda growth number? If you look at Chtr's commercial business (high margin, almost 20% of total revenues, and growing units at over 10% every reporting period) it grew units at 12 percent but because their volume strategy is different than acquired footprints they lowered price therefore commercial revs up around 4%. They have a few more months for this pig to get exit the snakes ass but my numbers show anther 2-2.5%of ebitda growth, or around 8%. And that doesnt include some other factors that would lift that even more. I will take those numbers all day long and the stock will do extremely well if 8% is the run rate, which I believe it is. I believe we will get to low double digits soon and stay there for a couple years and then hover around that 8% for at least a few more years. Remember, Chtr has much more pricing power than other cable companies (arpu's are lower) and it will eventually get applied to the much larger base that they are building now. I just used the raw numbers each year (cable EBITDA this year so it's comparable to last year, before the mobile spend) and divided by the shares outstanding. Did I screw up the math?
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Putting Q3 M&A deployment of capital in historical context (they did $92m, or $114m with deferred payments). Higher than all but a few quarters (this chart doesn't show 1Q18 ($367 million) and 2Q18 ($55 million)).
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Per share FCF and cable EBITDA: 2018 Q3 FCF YoY: +26.8% 2018 Q3 EBITDA YoY: +16.6%
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Q3: http://ir.charter.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=112298&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=2373694
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Pretty sure it's been discussed previously in this thread, and it's been addressed in previous annual letters and somewhat at some of the AGMs I've been at. The general idea is that capital allocation is about putting your limited capital where you're getting the highest returns. In the past they've tried investing more in organic growth and tracked results, and generally the results don't seem to be as good as what they can get with M&A. If they somehow couldn't do M&A anymore, they would no doubt redeploy more capital to organic growth (hire more people to write new modules, to enter new markets, to refresh old software more often, invest more in sales and marketing, etc). They'd probably do special dividends for excess cash. Mark Leonard has said that's his preferred way to return excess capital, if it ever gets to that. Also, looking at their aggregate organic growth numbers doesn't tell the whole story. They aren't like, I don't know, TYL or MKTX, with one or a few main things that they try to sell to everyone and grow. They have hundreds of business units and they buy all kinds of things. What matters is creating value, not putting up the best organic growth numbers, so they buy businesses in runoff (f.ex. lately in real estate or oil & gas, mining) that still create a lot of value but are headwinds to organic, and they buy things and then shut down low-margin/ROIC hardware sales divisions and consulting arms, etc. As I think Mark said in the past, it's easy to grow faster organically and inorganically, but it's hard to do it at the kind of ROIC that they're looking for--for the former they could just start price wars with their competitors and invest a ton of money into creating new products/modules, by doing so they'd probably show good growth but would probably create little value or destroy it, and for the latter they could just lower their hurdles and deploy a lot more capital in M&A, showing greater growth and lowering the cash pile, but that too would lower returns. So don't get me wrong, higher organic growth while staying disciplined would be great and create tremendous value. But in the end, what matters to me is that they keep ROIC high, great FCF/share and keep a strong balance sheet to be able to deploy a lot of capital if there's ever a large opportunity that comes along. I still think someday the stars will align and we'll wake up one morning and learn that they've been able to buy a large VMS for $500m or $1bn or $1.5bn...
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I posted some thoughts here:
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Google Q3: https://abc.xyz/investor/static/pdf/2018Q3_alphabet_earnings_release.pdf?cache=d17140f
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AMZN A3: https://press.aboutamazon.com/news-releases/news-release-details/amazoncom-announces-third-quarter-sales-29-566-billion
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VW apparently wanting to invest $13.7bn for 10% of Waymo: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-volkswagen-partnerships-waymo/volkswagen-in-talks-with-waymo-about-mobility-services-partnership-manager-magazin-idUSKCN1MZ1FL Not sure how reliable that is.
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'Inside S&P 500, most stocks in correction or bear market' (Reuters)
Liberty replied to Liberty's topic in General Discussion
After today those charts certainly look different... -
Q3: http://ir.tesla.com/static-files/725970e6-eda5-47ab-96e1-422d4045f799
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https://medium.com/conversations-with-tyler/ben-thompson-tyler-cowen-stratechery-amazon-google-facebook-4bd230276a14 Podcast and transcript both available.
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'Inside S&P 500, most stocks in correction or bear market' (Reuters)
Liberty replied to Liberty's topic in General Discussion
The pie charts only show how down from peak. There is a slice in the pie that says "flat to up 10%" My bad, it was so small I didn't see it. Not sure. Doesn't seem to make sense. Could be a mistake. If it was based on YTD numbers, it might make sense, but they say from peak, so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ -
'Inside S&P 500, most stocks in correction or bear market' (Reuters)
Liberty replied to Liberty's topic in General Discussion
The pie charts only show how down from peak. As you talking about the other chart? I think that one only looks on each day how many are making new lows and how many are making new highs, day by day. -
Yeah. I've been learning from multiple sources in recent years the importance of the immune system when it comes to cancer, and the impact of sleep on the immune system certainly should be taken seriously in that light.
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Not to mention that there's been enough time for other journalists and security researchers to look for those chips and they would've found them by now. I saw somewhere (forget where..) that the WaPo and NYT both trying to corroborate the story but got nowhere. I also think that it would be a good way for a security consulting firm to make a name and get lots of PR if they came out with more details on the chip or confirmed it, yet I haven't seen anything yet. In fact, security experts interviewed by Bloomberg for background research on the story seem skeptical because lots of speculative things he said were claimed by the story as exactly what the supposed chip did.
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Independent fed? https://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-steps-up-attacks-on-fed-chairman-jerome-powell-1540338090
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Andrew Left went from shorting and suing Tesla to this... https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/23/short-seller-who-is-suing-tesla-changes-his-mind-tesla-is-destroying-the-competition.html
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At what time do you usually fall asleep?
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http://www.dow-dupont.com/news-and-media/press-release-details/2018/DowDuPont-Announces-Filing-of-Initial-Form-10-Registration-Statement--for-Corteva-Agriscience/default.aspx http://d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net/CIK-0001666700/c19dfce0-5b14-4d89-a622-85da979e872b.pdf http://www.dow-dupont.com/news-and-media/press-release-details/2018/DowDuPont-Statement-on-Market-Activity/default.aspx