Liberty

Likelihood that this gets taken private?

I recently sold my AAPL shares. Had bought most during 2013, so the CAGR was decent (with dividends), but obviously it could've been better if my exit was better timed. I try to continuously evaluate my positions and keep a flexible mind even for things that I've discussed in public (my second biggest position I've never mentioned, AAPL was a medium position), and over the past few weeks I realized that while I still don't think the main bear thesis of the past 4-5 years is correct (I still don't think they'll be commoditized, that Android will get "good enough", that they can't do it without Steve, etc), I started being convinced by a different thesis. Not 100% convinced, but enough that my estimate of future returns going forward moved from mid-to-high-teens to high-single-digits/low-double-digits, and I decided that I had a better use for that capital elsewhere at the present time. Maybe I'll come back if the price gets truly ridiculous again. This other thesis is kind of the opposite of the previous bear thesis of commoditization/competition. It's more or less that they've been so successful that they've rapidly conquered most of the low hanging fruits and that going forward it'll be much harder to find large new carriers and geographies to add to move the needle. I still think they're likely to dominate the premium segment for the foreseeable future (don't see who can attack them, nobody else very differentiated since commodity OS), and that by tweaking their strategy they can keep growing for a while (iPhone SE will be interesting, maybe they drop the tic-toc "S" cycle so that every year is as exciting to people who don't understand the technology behind the curtain, a few more iterations and the Watch could be big, maybe VR/AR, cars, LTE still rolling out in China, India, etc). I'm also worried about the upgrade cycle, which is probably slowing down, and by China. Anyway, maybe this is a mistake and I sold at the exact wrong time, but I'm comfortable with where I put that capital, so hopefully even if Apple does well, my other pick does even better :) To be clear, I'm still optimistic about the prospects of the company, just not quite as much as I was...

Fiscal Q2 is out: http://www.transdigm.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=196053&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=2166825

Good writeup on CSU by @jnvest (on Twitter): http://www.jnvestor.com/csu/

Q1 results are out (also for LiLAC): http://www.libertyglobal.com/pdf/press-release/LG-Earnings-Release-Q1-16-FINAL.pdf

http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/ABEA-4CW8X0/523463770x0x889927/27EE2FDA-9C77-4D6A-8CEE-E8DFE45227BA/Q1_2016_Tesla_Shareholder_Letter.pdf If you thought they were ambitious before... Advancing production schedule to 500k EVs by 2018 instead of 2020.

What makes things a bit more complicated than that is that Apple is also a software company. It's just that they monetize through hardware. This is smart since consumers have never shown much inclination to pay for software (unlike the enterprise). Microsoft did the same thing on the consumer side with Windows; they mostly monetized through hardware. Most people never bought windows directly, they just paid for a license when they upgraded their computers. If you don't believe me that Software is a large part of Apple's value, just imagine what margins would do if the iPhone ran Android or if the Mac ran Windows. That software (iOS, OSX, tvOS, watcOS, etc) and its ecosystem (App store, iTunes, iMessage, iCloud, Apple Pay, etc) isn't commoditized, and since it's exclusive to the hardware, it helps differentiate it too.

Don't forget to look at how much deflation the overall laptop segment saw during the period. Margins are a better indicator since component costs are going down too.

Probably only if they put the Mac business in "Other" too.

Looks like we might be seeing the beginning of more transparency with real estate data in Canada: http://www.greaterfool.ca/2016/04/28/ethics-3/ Who knows how long it'll take for things to change, but at least that looks like a step in the right direction.

Depsite taking a look years ago and starting the thread, I've never actually owned it. Just didn't think their movies were good enough when compared to Pixar (and they age faster because of all the pop culture references, a lot less timeless).

Thanks for sharing, KCLarkin. I'm considering going to the AGM next year.. or maybe the Fairfax one just because there will probably be more people from the board and Twitter. Not decided yet.

That's probably usually wise. But on the other hand, there are dozens of different business models/structures, so it's expected that GAAP numbers can't work with them all at the same time; they'll be close to real economics with some businesses, and distort things with others. The question always is: Do you understand what's going on enough to trust the adjustments, or trust that GAAP actually is reflecting reality? Sins of omissions are real. If you pass on a great business that you would otherwise understand because the GAAP numbers are ugly, it's just as as real as if you buy something because of the adjusted numbers and they don't turn out to be accurately representing economic reality. An example of this might be cable companies. They've created a lot of value over the past few decades, but usually had pretty ugly GAAP numbers. It's only by looking at non-GAAP numbers that you could understand what was going on underneath.

On Twitter: "BREAKING: NBCUniversal to acquire DreamWorks for $41/share in cash"

They're gaining market share in the segment where they compete, which is the high-end. They're obviously not gaining market share in the low end, which is growing faster than the high-end but is also not profitable. It's like looking at Porsche's market share in the overall car market vs. their market share of the premium segment. So you're saying the high end smartphone segment is shrinking faster than iPhone sales are shrinking? I find this hard to believe, but: If yes, watch out. If no, what am I missing? I realize I didn't answer your question, I kind of jumped in the middle of the stream and answered something different (how it can be possible to gain market share at the high-end while losing overall market share). I don't know how Nielsen gets these numbers, we'll have to look at their report.

They're gaining market share in the segment where they compete, which is the high-end. They're obviously not gaining market share in the low end, which is growing faster than the high-end but is also not profitable. It's like looking at Porsche's market share in the overall car market vs. their market share of the premium segment.

http://i.imgur.com/pXmDdHg.jpg Pretend last year's numbers are blank and tell me that the past two quarters aren't about where you'd expect things to be looking at the longer-term trend... (Except maybe they'd be a bit higher if last year's cycle hadn't been so strong that it pulled some sales from 2016 into 2015...)

P/E ratio is only 60x if you don't take into account that the stock is trading in CAD and the earnings are in USD, and that they are depressed by a lot of non-cash amortization (after all it's a very acquisitive company) that might not have an actual economic impact (your call to decide if that's the case, but organic growth has been positive over the long-term (including this year, ex-FX)). FCF multiple has been closer to 20-25x lately.

How do you know the 7 won't have "wow" features? One interesting thing to note: A lot (most?) people are still on a 2-year update cycle. Since the 6 year was such an anomalous spike, the 7 year should get the "echo" of that year, which could boost results.

Another masterclass: http://www.csisoftware.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/PL_2015.pdf

Adding this to my list, you've convince me. Edit: Seems out of print. Are you aware of a newer edition, or is it just going to be expensive/hard to find?

People been waiting so long for this, when it comes they're all... http://www.relatably.com/m/img/waiting-skeleton-meme-maker/553a98434aa21808310057d3.jpg

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-04-25/charter-takeover-of-time-warner-cable-gets-antitrust-approval

Somebody offered you millions for wife and kid? Can I get a contact number? Maybe I'll sell mine. 8)

Almost at $50 now. I don't hear much from shorts lately.