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Everything posted by Liberty
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I think you're probably right. I was too much in the acquisition mindset, but if you're merging, all you need is to figure out the relative worth of each company; you don't have to dangle a juicy carrot to convince shareholders to sell you their shares (usually premium to market price). Still, do you think a higher market valuation could put TWC in a better position to negotiate the terms?
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Every time there's a rumor, TWC goes up ten percent. If they're going to do it, I hope they do it before it costs them 50+ billion..
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Too soon to tell, IMO, but I know that politicians in Quebec - especially as a minority government facing an election sooner than later - want to appear to be doing something about bad economic news and about jobs in that regionally important sector. They'll definitely be more receptive and looser with the purse strings because of it, and more open to modifying the IQ deal if it comes to that. How much will it help? Who knows, but it should at least boost confidence a bit. It would be nice if FTP go a subsidy after all to switch from oil to natural gas as part of the "green" investments mentioned. This would reduce costs per ton (I'm not sure by how much -- had this been mentioned previously? anyone knows?).
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Thanks for the links. That clip is hilarious. I've actually never seen that movie... :D
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http://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2013/11/jury-awards-290-million-more-to-apple-in-apple-v-samsung-retrial/
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From the beginning of the IQ deal, it has been mentioned a few times that the terms are very favorable and they can push back repayments without penalty if they need to. Obviously, the priority of IQ is keeping jobs at Thurso. It doesn't mean that's what they'll do, but it's an option.
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http://www.beyondproxy.com/tdg/
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But if they buy back the debt at 60 cents, they save all interest payments (they make a lot less on their cash pile than they pay out in interest) plus the discount. Isn't that deleveraging? Update: To be clear, I think if they do a tender, it should be for the debentures.
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I've actually asked them that. I'll let you know what they say. Anyone familiar with TSX rules on such tenders? Could this be the reason?
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Minimum capex is around 10M$ (according to management). Also DP prices are unlikely to remain at 900$ for 3 years straight. Otherwise, sure. Basically it's an interesting asymmetric bet, but it's not completely bulletproof. Plus they should be able to buy back a lot of those debentures for ±60 cents on the dollar (maybe less if things keep going the way they've been), reducing the liability at maturity and reducing interest payments until then. And if things turn and go really well, many of those debs could be converted to equity (not counting on that right now, though).
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Anything recent give you the impression he's not a good capital allocator? Probably a safe bet that years of working closely with Malone has taught him a few things...
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Liberty, Not to be rude, but are we making a mistake anchoring on the IPO price? A lot has changed in this business in the last 6 years. I was saying those as two different things. (I realize now it looked like the same idea, sorry for the confusion) 1) It's about half of IPO price now. 2) The recent price action seems like a full-blown capitulation. I'm not saying it's totally irrational; lots of negative stuff, of course. But even if they scrap LSQ, they have lots of cash on the balance sheet, thurso should keep getting better quarter by quarter, the tariffs should reduce supply and hopefully help DP price firm up, and landquart is finally starting to look like less of a black hole, maybe even sellable at some point (I wonder what the intangibles like patents and customer relationships would be worth to a 'strategic' buyer in the industry?).
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Now almost half the price of IPO over 6 years ago. I think this qualifies as a full blown panic.
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Why is WFC priced at 10.1x 2015 earnings? It shouldn't be that easy to make double-digit returns when the market as a whole trades at 19x earnings. WFC is not a risky company. The real reason is probably that analysts don't want target prices that are too far from where stocks are trading right now, up or down. If they had given higher multiples that are more in line with the rest of the market, they would've taken career risk. If they stay close to where things sell right now and the price overshoots their target, they can still say they were right, but if they aim higher, they look wrong today, and if the market undershoots (even in the short term), they look wrong a second time.
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I don't know. They said they sat down down with brokers from all sides and tried to make it happen. Maybe they just had too short a window to pull it together. I'm sure some big players have a few millions of the debs and want to get out, but daily volumes don't allow them to get out easily without raising the price a lot. Making a deal with the company for a block might please both parties, and so for that reason it might very well happen. We'll see.
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Based on the last call, they seem to want to take advantage of the block exemption to buy big blocks. I'm hoping that maybe some of the volume from the past few days included some of these big blocks.
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Great ad by Google: (make sure you have english subtitles on, unless you speak the language)
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It's the debenture volume that interests me most. Since the last CC, there's been many days where over 100k have traded for each. That's quite a bit higher than the long-term average, from what I've seen. Hopefully a lot of those are buybacks.
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The glass half full way to look at it is that they haven't done buybacks in the past few months, so they have all their ammo left for these ridiculous prices. I just hope they aren't still constantly blacked out and prevented from buying because of non-public deals they're working on and such...
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http://www.montrealgazette.com/business/Fortress+Paper+negotiations+with+China+duty+says/9181449/story.html
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Apple's solar farm: http://gigaom.com/2013/11/18/apple-solar-farm-fuel-cell-farms-exclusive-photos-investigative-report/
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A lot of people expected the Mini Retina to still be 1 year behind the big iPad in speed (in other words, to get the A6 SOC, like how the original Mini had the A5 when the big iPad had the A6). So basically, what you got this year is what most Apple pundits expected to come out next year. Futuristic indeed.
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It seems to be Durasafe. With Google Images I traced the image back to this eBay auction: http://www.ebay.com/itm/HYBRID-Test-Note-Specimen-Bluebird-Landqart-Kazakhstan-Printing-Factory-/200915622366 It is over and the image has been removed, but the description remains: