Liberty

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/05/10/us-keycorp-bankofamerica-idUSBRE94902420130510

Thank you. That's the thing; the ABV of the Ins Corp in the filings is high, but everybody seems to have been pretty much zeroing it out... So how much are the recent developments changing that equation and potentially allowing some of that value to be realized over time, and is the official ABV number kind of a good indication of how much value could be there, or is the thing so messed up that the actual value (if any) has very little relation (in order of magnitude, I mean) to that official ABV number?

Thank you, I saw that. http://i.imgur.com/0GARwyt.png I know I'm too late for the big pop on this one, but now that it's been significantly de-risked, I'm trying to figure out how much of a value gap there is left between what the market sees and what the IV range might be. Might be a smaller upside, but the dark clouds on the horizon are also a lot smaller it seems... I've been re-reading this whole thread and want to thank everybody for their contributions. Truly amazing the work that has been done on this one. Too bad I'm not a good enough investor to have jumped in earlier, but I try to learn a bit every day :)

Yeah, if you avoid all the obviously bad things, the biggest factor seems to be genetics, which is why biomedical research is our best hope.

This is a good presentation on sugar if memory serves me right. I haven't seen it in a couple years, but I think it gives a good overview of a lot of recent research:

Question for the MBIA experts: What are the main things you'll be wanting to hear about in tomorrow morning's call? I'm thinking of listening in, and I'd love a cheat sheet :D Is it too early to hope to hear about plans to write new business at National? Something on the value of the structured business? Something on credit ratings? Anything else? Thanks.

It's a problem right now, but soon there will be many more Supercharger stations. The stated goal is for Tesla owners to be able to drive pretty much anywhere in the US while always being in range of a station (exceptions of course in really rural areas, but even there you'll eventually find charging stations -- they just won't be Superchargers). And if you really want to drive that route in the meantime, you can always find a regular charging station in between, stop to have a coffee and charge enough miles to get you to the next Supercharger. No need to charge fully at a regular station, just enough to get you home or to the next fast one (with a margin of safety, of course ;) ). The onboard mapping system will help you find all the charging stations on your route (more are popping up all the time).

Very cool! And there are Supercharger stations close (these can drive ridiculous amounts of current and recharge your battery faster than anything else -- they're also free to use for Tesla owners): http://www.teslamotors.com/supercharger So if you ever decided to take longer trips, shouldn't be a problem.

My trick to fight the diseases of aging is to donate money to biomedical research (more specifically, the SENS Research Foundation -- www.sens.org) :)

Guess we'll have to wait and see. Experts were saying that Tesla couldn't do what it has already done, so it wouldn't be the first time. Personally, I don't see why Tesla would need to increase it's production rate from 20k/year to 500k+/year to cut the cost of a next generation vehicle in half. They'll need to increase, but not by 25x. Batteries are improving storage capacity at something like 7-8% a year last I checked, so in a few years a smaller battery will have the same range. They'll no doubt make the next platform start out with a lower range, be smaller and have fewer bells & whistles, and re-use/adapt a lot of the power electronics, software, motor tech, etc, from the Model S, so no need to spend on re-inventing the wheel. There are a lot fewer parts than in a gas car, so the investment in re-tooling and new machinery is a lot lower. Totally doable, IMO.

More "out of curiosity" questions: What color did you pick? Do you live close to Supercharger stations (not that it'll be a problem over time.. check out their future expansion plans: http://goo.gl/OoqGg http://goo.gl/CD39O )? Do you have a delivery date yet?

You don't necessarily need to sell that many. Nissan is already selling the LEAF for a pretty low price, and I'd expect that they will cut prices further over time now that they are ramping up their TN factory. I think Tesla can do much better than them in a few years (in good part because they're much leaner and smarter, and also thanks to the natural drop in price of components over time). edit: I think we have to be careful about anchoring. If gas cars didn't exist and someone came up with one today, showing you all the different parts, a lot of them moving.. You'd probably think it costs a lot more than an electric car.

Indeed, that can be confusing, and I myself probably aren't always clear when I talk about "the next platform" or the "next generation". The Model X is a Model S variant so I never consider it as anything more, but not everybody knows that.

Where did you get that Model X was supposed to be sub 40k? The Model X is built on the Model S platform and should have similar pricing. It's the next platform - still under development - that should be less expensive and built in higher volumes.

Yep. The non-performance model is 5.4 secs, iirc.

I doubt it's a problem. I mean, how hard can running A/C be compared to accelerating a big sedan from 0 to 60 in 5 seconds?

Apart from the tires, almost nothing needs as much maintenance in an EV as in a gas car. The brakes almost don't wear out because most braking is done using regenerative braking, A/C is electric and I'd imagine more reliable (thought maybe not, but not a big deal), and there's pretty much no fluids and such to change. Tesla has even recently made their yearly maintenance checkup optional without any effect on warranty. As for battery lifetime, the battery doesn't stop working after 10 years or whatever, it just doesn't hold as much charge. That's a problem if you travel very far often, but if not, you can probably keep the same battery until the car is old enough you don't want it anymore anyway. Not to mention that in a decade, a new battery pack will probably cost a fraction of what it costs now.

Consumer Reports gave the Model S 99 out of 100, says it's the "best car they've ever tested": http://www.consumerreports.org/cro/magazine/2013/07/tesla-model-s-review/index.htm http://news.consumerreports.org/cars/2013/05/video-the-tesla-model-s-is-our-top-scoring-car.html

In an insurance company, I think they have a lot of discretion when it comes to reserving. So I don't know if it took place, but it certainly seems possible.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/05/09/us-ratings-mbia-sandp-idUSBRE94800320130509

By the time they saturate the market for premium cars (which could take a while), they'll have their third generation model (higher volume, lower cost) ready, so I doubt that's their biggest worry.

What's your current estimate of IV for MBIA, if I may ask?

Tesla up 26% after hours. http://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-q1-earnings-2013-5 Can't feel good right now to be short this stock...

Out of curiosity, are you buying, leasing, or using the new 'Tesla Financing" which is kind of a hybrid between the two?

We'll find out the exact number soon, but their annual production rate is now around 25,000, and they've still got a lot of space to expand at the NUMMI plant.