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Everything posted by Liberty
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Sorry if already posted, but interview with Buffett (posted April 30, recorded March 10):
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So Ford has more cash on the balance sheet than what Tesla has cumulatively invested in capex since it was founded, looks like. Shows how cash isn't the limiting factor, but vision and talent. Anyway, cash isn't worth much if you destroy it. Ford's ROE in 2019 was just about zero, and return on capital has been low single digits for years and highly cyclical..
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https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/30/opinion/coronavirus-covid-vaccine.html "How Long Will a Vaccine Really Take?"
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The flaw with that thinking is that we're learning and working on things that could be here before the vaccine, and the timeline for the vaccine is unknown (could be sooner than we think too), and there's limited healthcare capacity. So if in 2-3 months we have some more therapies/drugs and best practices (proning?) to helps save people who get sick, it's better to be infected later rather than sooner and to keep the curve flat rather than have a high peak early on.
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It seems a bit harsh to constantly review Sweden on the number of deaths compared to their neighbours as their policy was never aimed at less corona death in the first place and they were upfront about this. If someone wants to compare, you have to look at the broader picture (economic growth, quality of life), which you cannot do until much later. Despite what many predicted, their IC capacity seems to be holding. I think it's useful to look at what this approach does vs different approach. I don't see anything harsh or unfair here. I also saw some numbers somewhere that it's not because things arent officially closed that they aren't basically closed.. saw numbers on Swedish restaurants and theaters being basically zero, but don't remember where. Probably same for any big events, travel, etc. Regarding Sweden -- here is an answer from their former state epidemiologist. "I think we should wait a year when comparing the deaths in different countries." Why not wait 10 years and then we'll really have perspective? This is about real-time decision-making under uncertainty to try to balance various pros and cons to do as well as possible through a crisis..
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https://www.factcheck.org/2020/04/trump-misquotes-fauci-on-coronavirus-threat/
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It seems a bit harsh to constantly review Sweden on the number of deaths compared to their neighbours as their policy was never aimed at less corona death in the first place and they were upfront about this. If someone wants to compare, you have to look at the broader picture (economic growth, quality of life), which you cannot do until much later. Despite what many predicted, their IC capacity seems to be holding. I think it's useful to look at what this approach does vs different approach. I don't see anything harsh or unfair here. I also saw some numbers somewhere that it's not because things arent officially closed that they aren't basically closed.. saw numbers on Swedish restaurants and theaters being basically zero, but don't remember where. Probably same for any big events, travel, etc.
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Tesla Q1: https://ir.tesla.com/static-files/c1723af4-ffda-4881-ae12-b6f3c972b795 Stock up almost 8% after-hours..
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Q1 (fiscal Q3): https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/Investor/earnings/FY-2020-Q3/press-release-webcast · Revenue was $35.0 billion and increased 15% · Operating income was $13.0 billion and increased 25% · Net income was $10.8 billion and increased 22% · Diluted earnings per share was $1.40 and increased 23% Azure revenue growth of 59% (up 61% in constant currency)
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Why is past valuation relevant for a company that has changed this much over time?
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https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/commentary/great-reset-marc-mndreessens-recent-exhortation-to-build-is-exactly-right
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https://blog.aboutamazon.com/policy/amazons-response-to-our-wrongful-inclusion-on-the-notorious-markets-list
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I think that's wrong conclusion to draw. Flu infections don't hit all at the same time as covid infections kinda did. But that's with a shutdown. Imagine what it'd be with business as usual. And it's not like they'd "all be at the same time", it'd go on for many more months at higher levels.
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https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/28/us/coronavirus-death-toll-total.html
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https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/29/dr-anthony-fauci-says-data-from-remdesivir-coronavirus-drug-trial-shows-quite-good-news.html
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https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/29/gottlieb-slavitt-coronavirus-plan-white-house/
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Q1: https://s2.q4cdn.com/242125233/files/doc_financials/2020/q1/1Q20-Earnings-Presentation.pdf
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What's the average number of lawsuits against a $100bn+ company that makes highly regulated products sold to thousands of consumers around the world? How many lawsuits against GM or Ford? I don't know, but I'm guessing more than a few. And 2003? Five guys in a garage? Yeah, I'd guess that a company selling thousands of cars would have more lawsuits than they did. No opinion generally on the board or whatever, but that line was funny and lacks context. This must be the interwebs. It's clearly not just about the number of lawsuits. There's a whole section on "Unrecognized risks", the company culture and accounting fraud next to the reference to the lawsuits. I suggest that if you want to say something, say it, and not something else, and then pretend that others are dumb for looking at what you actually wrote rather than what you were thinking of.
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What's the average number of lawsuits against a $100bn+ company that makes highly regulated products sold to thousands of consumers around the world? How many lawsuits against GM or Ford? I don't know, but I'm guessing more than a few. And 2003? Five guys in a garage? Yeah, I'd guess that a company selling thousands of cars, with a complex industrial and software supply chain spread around the world, would have more lawsuits than they did. No opinion generally on the board or whatever, but that line was funny and lacks context.
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Mafia tactics:
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Ha! Also, “Here's the transcript of the president's response when he was asked if he's spoken with the families of anyone who has died in the pandemic other than the family of his friend:” No need for commentary. If you just read it, you'll see.
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https://www.vox.com/coronavirus-covid19/2020/4/27/21236270/bill-gates-coronavirus-covid-19-plan-vaccines-conspiracies-podcast Interview with Bill Gates
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I thought the results were pretty strong, particularly given some weakness from the minor O&G-focused parts of the business. If things stay slow for a while, I would expect ROP to be a prime beneficiary of additional M&A opportunities. I posted some of my highlights from the transcript in this thread, they mention M&A a few times:
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Pence, head of Coronavirus task force: