Liberty

From a purely probabilistic point of view, LSQ closing increases the chances of the 3rd mill also happening, if only because it's one more data point showing us that when management says publicly that they are "very confident" something will happen, it usually does happen. I also wonder where that 3rd mill is located. Maybe we'll have a surprise and it won't be in Canada or Europe but somewhere in the US or South America? We'll have to wait and see.

Babytel.ca also does 911 address location. I don't think something like Skype does it, though.

Let me know if you find them :)

Interesting. DP made from softwood could command a premium because softwood has better characteristics than hardwood. (and LSQ has softwood supply)

Reminder: the call is starting any minute. http://specialtycellulose.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/LSQ_Announcement_Jan_31_2012.pdf

I went back to the Thurso announcement and they said 200k tonnes from the start. http://www.treehugger.com/clean-water/graphene-perfect-water-filter.html Doesn't mean they wouldn't underpromise now, though.

New documents for the environmental permitting: http://alderonironore.com/projects/environmentalassessment/

Good theory, Optsy. Seems like trading has resumed. Up 12.46% right now.

I might be misremembering, but I thought that LSQ was 350k NHSK and that this would give close to 300k for DP. But 236k is fine. Hopefully once the cash starts flowing they'll consider doing opportunistic buybacks if the price drops below IV (unless they have so many new acquisitions and upgrades to do that they can actually put all that cash to good use internally with high ROI). This could take care of the dilution.

My home phone is with babytel.ca via a dry-loop DSL connection (with Teksavvy.com).

The yearly tonnage is lower than I expected, and they're still going to have to upgrade the cogen, but overall I'm very happy. If during the next year they acquire the other smaller mill that they were very confident about, and they have similar terms, I'll be sending flowers to Chad.

There will be a conference call after market close. Teleconference Date: Tuesday, January 31, 2012 Time: 1:30pm (PST) / 4:30pm (EST) Dial In Numbers: 604-681-8564 Vancouver 403-532-5601 Calgary or International 780-429-5820 Edmonton 3 416-623-0333 Toronto 613-212-0171 Ottawa 514-687-4017 Montreal Toll Free Dial In Number: 1-855-353-9183 from Canada and USA Participant Pass Code: _____ 98030 ______# Confirmation Number: _____ 764917 _____

http://business.financialpost.com/2012/01/31/fortress-paper-surges-on-domtar-pulp-mill-relaunch/ 49MW of cogen already in place!

The scariest thing about RIM's future, IMO, is the culture inside the company. I have no first hand experience with it, but what I hear is not very good. Tech companies live and die based on how many A players they can get and retain (and those in turn make the place attractive for other A players that can then be hired - it either becomes a virtuous cycle or a vicious one, it rarely entirely stabilizes one way or the other). What I heard is that RIM is losing many talented people and they are becoming a second tier choice for talented engineers and designers (might go there if they can't get into Apple/Google/Facebook/Amazon/etc). This isn't farming; top level A players don't just do 3x the amount of work that B players do, they do things that no quantity of B and C players put together can do. You can't fake technical genius or taste. So if I was a RIM shareholders, I'd try to get as much information as possible about the state of the culture and recruitment at RIM. But that's not easy, because most non-technical people cannot distinguish between A and B players (B players can be great at what they do, come from the best schools with the highest grades, etc.. maybe the X factor is just having a totally unbalanced life and spending every waking moment obsessing over the quality of what you're working on to the point where you would almost do it for no pay? Maybe it's the only way to truly reach the top, kind of like how Buffett was smart to begin with but he also focused his whole life on investing)

I bought a bunch yesterday :) Trading has just been halted.

Some french news reporting the sale ahead of the press conference: http://tvanouvelles.ca/lcn/economie/archives/2012/01/20120131-082602.html http://www.radio-canada.ca/regions/abitibi/2012/01/30/003-relance-usine-domtar.shtml http://www.cyberpresse.ca/le-soleil/affaires/actualite-economique/201201/30/01-4490917-plan-nord-lusine-de-lebel-sur-quevillon-renaiitra.php Stock up 11.32% right now.

Thank you Olmsted, very interesting. It does help me create a clearer picture of the value range in my head, but it's still incredibly fuzzy. Too bad, because Bill Ackman's involvement is making this one really interesting to me -- I just know he did a massive amount of due diligence on it.. It's not like I have cash to invest anyway, but I do want to learn more about HCC to enlarge my circle of competence, so I really appreciate your contribution.

So I'm just thinking out loud here... I think that the sale from Domtar to FTP shows that FTP has a kind of moat when it comes to DP, and that's the expertise required to convert a mill and the relationships with buyers. It could be argued that with Thurso, Fraser looked at FTP's plans and thought "hmm, that probably won't work". But with LSQ, Domtar can look at Thurso and see what it's possible to do with the mill. Yet they'd rather sell it to FTP for (probably) peanuts than try to do what FTP is going to do. Why? Because this is a lot harder than it looks, and it's a good sign. FTP is the first new entrant in DP in like 30-40 years, and I don't think we'll see tons of them even if prices stay solid. We'll see more new plants from existing players and maybe a few others try their hand at conversions, but there definitely seems to be a barrier to entry that is higher than might seem at first glance. Deep expertise is hard to find. FTP has hired the team that did some of the only conversions ever (there's only been a handful), and we know that Chad has been thinking about the DP business at least for 5 years (that's a lot for a smart workaholic who doesn't sleep much - he said in the recent CIBC talk that he's studied dozens and dozens of plants around the world). He's also been to China a lot, has hired a Chinese business coach and learned the customs over there, made relationships, etc. It's not just any forestry manager who can wake up one morning and decide to do a DP conversion and end up with a working plant on time and on budget that is a low-cost producer.

Yeah, it's strange to announce this in the middle of the day like that. But considering the low volume, it looks like the big players haven't figured it out yet. Might not be on the types of newswires that are monitored by Bloomberg terminals or whatever..

I was just about to post that. Should be great news unless Chad has relaxed his standards (which would surprise me). :D

Feeney is an inspiration, both as a philanthropist and as a businessman. We have a thread about the book here: http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/books/the-billionaire-who-wasn't-conor-o'clery/

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/tech-talent-turns-away-from-rim/article2318192/ This is one of the dangers for RIM now. Success for a high-tech company depends a lot on recruiting and keeping the best engineers/designers/programmers..

Audio recording of an interview with the Chairman of Alderon from last November (I don't think it was posted here yet): http://www.mining.com/2011/11/01/mining-com-podcast-canadian-iron-ore-project-advancing/

I haven't seen anything. It's probably material enough that if anything was announced ALS would do a press release.

Plans for expansion of the Sept Iles port, mentions Alderon among others: http://www.cyberpresse.ca/le-soleil/affaires/les-regions/201201/18/01-4487192-le-port-de-sept-iles-se-nourrit-de-fer.php Looks like they want a new terminal done around 2014, which would be great timing for Alderon.