Liberty

I had a quick look (very quick look) and what I saw was: small profit margins, fairly stable revenue over the past 5 years, not much cash on the balance sheet, and declining operating cashflow. That sector is pretty competitive without much competitive advantage for any store (they mostly compete on price), and at a PE of 14, it doesn't seem particularly cheap. Am I missing something? Why this when there are such great bargains right now? Is there a hidden asset that I'm overlooking?

I agree with you on what we could call the 'macro' level, but on the 'micro' level, sales of the iPhone 4 are still very strong and nobody else has the combination of integration of design+hardware specs+UI+apps+content that I mentioned earlier. The competition has gotten better, but the iPhone is still more than competitive and so even without a new generation it can still sell quite well, squeezing more out of what was invested in producing it. In aggregate Android has nice market share, but on a phone-to-phone level, the iPhone dominates (including in margins per phone), and as long as it's a leader with consumers, releasing something completely new would be kind of a waste if they can squeeze more out of the current model with a refresh. What are those changes you talk about? I see they integrated the Siri acquisition, they used the iPad 2's chip with some tweaks, they improved the camera, and there's iOS 5 and iCloud which they've been working on for a while. This is a long list and hard to achieve, but it's nothing compared to going from, say, the iPhone 3 to the iPhone 4. I think they could probably go faster than they do because most of their innovations are modular (and the way these things work, they probably had 5 iPhone 5 external designs in the oven by the time the iPhone 4 hit the shelves). I mean that you can include X features in the next generation or X+Y or whatever. So an iPhone 5 released today might have had X new features while one released in 1 year will have X+Y features because of the longer lead time. If they were really getting their ass kicked in the marketplace by a new entrant or whatever, I'm pretty sure they wouldn't have just a refreshed iPhone 4 for the biggest quarter of the year. But I can't be sure of that, nor can you, so we'll probably never know.

At what price, if I may ask?

Nailed it! 8)

Depends how you define holding back. So far they haven't really had to because they've never been really too threatened, so you can call it their normal cruising speed. But I'm pretty sure they aren't going flat out and releasing new major upgrades as soon as they can.

I don't think anyone has caught up to the iPhone 4 when it comes to the whole package (the integration of design+hardware specs+UI+apps+content). Some phones have better specs, or similar design, etc.. But none give quite the same experience to the average user IMHO. And I say that as a fan of Android as a strong second. Holding back makes a ton of sense. Just look at the iPhone -> iPhone 3G -> iPhone 3GS sequence. You squeeze a lot more money out of the same design and investment. Why reinvent the iPhone every year and a half if you don't have to? Why let your competitors know what new features you've been working on sooner than you have to? Chances are the 4S costs them significantly less to produce than did the original iPhone 4 when it came out, so even if they don't see as much over the holidays as if they had the 5, they can still make a lot of dough. In short, I think that if someone was holding their feet to the fire and kicking their ass, they probably would have had an iPhone 5 ready for the holidays this year.

I think they did the right thing from a business POV. I'd sure love to see the iPhone 5, but they shouldn't tip their hand faster than they have to. competitors are still catching up to the iPhone 4, and the 4S will make that even harder. So they can keep the 5 under wraps until they need it more. Same with iPad 3.

Agreed. I can't wait to get my hands on Walter Isaacson's official bio of Steve next month!

Looks like only iPhone 4S, not iPhone 5.. :-[

Thanks! This one is definitely in the top tier of my watchlist, but I'm still struggling at valuing it and knowing what's cheap enough to buy and what isn't.. Do you have a rule of thumb for what kind of P/E or FCF yield would be considered attractive for MA considering its growth and moat?

Nice drop in the past few days. Hopefully it continues on that trajectory for a while longer ;)

Not many, I think (they bought some in 2008, but less than a million iirc). When the stock was selling at a higher multiple, they issued a lot more shares than they bought back. They've only started gobbling millions of them after the huge drop at the end of Q1. And for the record, they don't issue earnings guidance, so the "beats" that you are talking about are for third party analyst projections, not for company targets.

Here's the release: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/ebix-close-to-repurchasing-all-the-company-shares-issued-for-purchase-of-adam-inc-in-february-2011-2011-10-04 Based on what the CEO said in an interview, they should increase buybacks authorization to 160m soon. The ADAM shares were issued at Feb 7 2011 price, so over $24. Looks like they'll have bought back the whole company for probably around $16-17

ALS, FTP

Another bit of news found via the SH board: http://www.risiinfo.com/blogs/New-trends-of-the-paper-industry-in-China.html

http://www.techdirt.com/blog/wireless/articles/20111001/00365416161/patent-troll-says-anyone-using-wifi-infringes-wont-sue-individuals-this-stage.shtml ;)

I bought a little today, but I don't have much cash. I'm sure the businesses I own have been allocating cash to bargains, though. :)

Another article where the mayor of LSQ says there should be a sale announced within 'weeks'. http://www.abitibiexpress.ca/Economie/Ressources-naturelles/2011-10-03/article-2765352/%26laquo%3BCe-n%26rsquo%3Best-pas-une-%26lt%3Bem%26gt%3Bballoune%26lt%3B-em%26gt%3B!%26raquo%3B/1

Is this thread sinking because it has been determined that it's not okay to talk about this here, or because Parsad hasn't seen it..?

If it happens it won't be as crazy because they can't do the buybacks secretly and blindside the shorts, but with the amount of the float that is sold short, a short squeeze would probably still be pretty dramatic. I'd love it if it happened too!

Thanks! Good one.

New bulletin: http://www.altiusminerals.com/files/Altius2011_TabloidBrochure_book.pdf

You mean the part where Sorkin was trying to get him to give a yes or no answer to a very complex question where it wasn't clear exactly what he was asking him so that he would later be quoted everywhere in the media without much context as being "in favor of plan X" or "against plan X" or whatever? I think he did the right thing.

Agreed! And he mentioned in some interview that (from memory) he'd like to do at least 2-3 other deals like Thurso, so hopefully within a few years there are 3 DP plants generating 100m+ a year (each eventually getting upgraded with cogen and a biorefinery, if it makes financial sense, for even more cashflow).

Hitting new 52wk lows.. Wish I understood that company better, because they sure have a great reputation. But I still don't feel like I understand enough what they own to buy some.