rayfinkle

Thank you sir!

Thanks Greg! How do you get comfortable with the “control family” risks? Eg stagnation, lack of incentive in support of minority investors, etc.? In briefly going over the latest deck it seems like they at least talk the talk of closing value to NAV gap.

Hey all! Has anyone connected google sheets to IB API? If not gSheets, python? im looking to automatically download my portfolio and history to do some bespoke analysis.

Hey Greg- any chance you can point to a write up ? I checked out the May 2020 VIC already. Thanks!

Does anyone know how to see insider purchases from companies like FLY and AER?

HA! yes paid. Sincerely, Beggar and chooser

Hi all- I’m looking for someone to do a few hours a week of google apps script work. I’m currently using someone from up work but the coordination is not great. Ideally the person is willing to go on zoom for 15 minutes 2-3x per week and sign a standard NDA so that I can share some basic info. The work itself is pretty straight forward- mostly inserting formulas and sheets to summarize data. Needs to be somewhat efficient as it would work over a bunch of tabs. PM me if interested!

twocities- how are you thinking about strike and duration

Thanks Gamecock- Do you have a source for this? Just want to keep building knowledge. It seems like many of these folks (STNG, DHT) are trading at crazy low cf multiples. Anyone have thoughts on what drives day rates down vs. 2019 realized levels?

I spoke to IR the other day in detail. I think Q2 is going to going to be good. Day rates remain high, and despite scheduled maintenance driving fewer revenue days than in prior quarter, they should generate cash. The key question in my mind is what happens if there's an extended hit to demand. I'm having trouble thinking this through, ideas appreciated! At this rate they'll generate their entire market cap in cash in ~3 quarters and should not have trouble paying down debt maturities (so long as they don't to too many buy backs). When they report Q1 results and Q2 guidance it should be good, but no one will be paying attention. And it may be appropriate to not give any credit for performance more than two quarters out?

thanks all! will check skyscanner

Hey all- Does anyone know of a free or cheap source for airline bookings data? To be clear, I'm not looking for aggregations of revenues, etc., but rather third-party data for folks buying new tickets. Thanks, and happy hunting!

Hey there- Has anyone put a model together to get to a reasonable prediction of earnings for STNG and other comparables? Specifically it seems that because using the knowns (e.g., vessels by type, operating cost, the % fixed rates) we can use spot rates and some assumptions to get to a reasonable estimate for near-term FCF. Has anyone looked at this?

Is anyone familiar with DXC? Stock is tanking today. I've followed at arms length for a while but am trying to brush up quickly. Thanks in advance!

Thanks @ walkie518- Just to make sure I'm following, can you confirm that this is the logic: 1. Their mark-to-market book value is sensitive to rising rates 2. If rates rise in a way that is either a) unexpected, or b) occurs faster than expected then management may not be able to manage the book with ample speed 3. if [2] occurs, BV likely decreases (though cash flow characteristics of the book are unchanged) So, we'd expect: -The stock to go down (assuming no change in P / BV) -The yield to go up (based on [3] above) Is this right? have been watching for a while along with Chimera...difference historically being that CIM is non-agency and NLY is agency that said, even though mgmt has reduced debt, NLY carries a lot of leverage so even if the paper doesn't lose money in the longer-term, book value can erode as rates rise, which might beget selling at $10.xx, however, it seems like risk/reward might be anticipating higher rates than where the stock might be trading?