Guest wellmont Posted July 31, 2015 Share Posted July 31, 2015 really not seeing how mtl is cheap. the most it earned when oil was around $100 was $1.58. now energy prices are way lower. how is it going to earn that again in the near future? the stock is around $19. So it's over 12x peak earnings. It pays out $1.20 in dividends. but it appears they aren't even earning the dividend now. the stock has market cap of $1.8b and tangible book value of around $500m. in a good year it earns around $160m ebit (average). they have around $500m net debt. so $2.3b tev over $160m earnings during a good cycle is 14x. the stock is lower than it was 10 years ago. not sure I see an extraordinarily cheap stock here. I see a company that chooses to pay out most of it's earnings. I see the stock being propped up by the dividend. How is it going to grow even if energy prices recover when it pays out most of it's earnings? I believe if we get oil back into the $70s the upside in pwt is far far better than the upside here. anyway that was just a quick analysis and I may have missed something big. The guys who own this know it way better. So I would listen to them on this one because they've done the work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uccmal Posted July 31, 2015 Share Posted July 31, 2015 really not seeing how mtl is cheap. the most it earned when oil was around $100 was $1.58. now energy prices are way lower. how is it going to earn that again in the near future? the stock is around $19. So it's over 12x peak earnings. It pays out $1.20 in dividends. but it appears they aren't even earning the dividend now. the stock has market cap of $1.8b and tangible book value of around $500m. in a good year it earns around $160m ebit (average). they have around $500m net debt. so $2.3b tev over $160m earnings during a good cycle is 14x. the stock is lower than it was 10 years ago. not sure I see an extraordinarily cheap stock here. I see a company that chooses to pay out most of it's earnings. I see the stock being propped up by the dividend. How is it going to grow even if energy prices recover when it pays out most of it's earnings? I believe if we get oil back into the $70s the upside in pwt is far far better than the upside here. anyway that was just a quick analysis and I may have missed something big. The guys who own this know it way better. So I would listen to them on this one because they've done the work. Not extremely cheap but they seem to manage. Ten yrs ago was an anomaly to the high side due to the income trust boom. Very well managed, serial acquirer that is now into general trucking. Buy companies, pay down debt... rinse, repeat. Feel free: http://www.mullen-group.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/At-A-Glance_June-2015-Final-web.pdf I dont want to coop the Pwt thread. Read the chairmans letters. On par with Watsa or Buffett (ok maybe not WEB). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dutchman Posted July 31, 2015 Share Posted July 31, 2015 Uccmal, kevin, are referring to: Metaux Russel when you say Rus ? There's no thread for this one, but can you point me to any goid writeup on it? You guys seem to really like it. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevin4u2 Posted July 31, 2015 Share Posted July 31, 2015 Yes, the parent company is Russel Metals, their Quebec distributor is Metaux Russel. I have no idea why google finance calls them that. The best writeup is the five year financial highlights on their website. After that I would recommend the Annual Report. Uccmal, kevin, are referring to: Metaux Russel when you say Rus ? There's no thread for this one, but can you point me to any goid writeup on it? You guys seem to really like it. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
plato1976 Posted August 12, 2015 Share Posted August 12, 2015 anyone concerned the real possibility now this will be a zero at the end for equity holders? Inclined to agree overall. We see it that at $2; it doesn’t take much (or that long) to get to $4, & double. But at $4 it takes more, & warrants taking at least some of the gain & redeploying it elsewhere. SD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cardboard Posted August 12, 2015 Share Posted August 12, 2015 Ya sure. So what is your point? Cardboard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SharperDingaan Posted August 12, 2015 Share Posted August 12, 2015 It is highly unlikely that they go to zero. It is much more likely that someone elects to take a run at them, versus drill for the oil – especially if they can settle at a higher valuation by paying in stock versus cash. The nice thing about commodity cycles is that they are also just that – cycles. Six months out, everybody will be singing in a different key. SD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted August 12, 2015 Share Posted August 12, 2015 Six months out, everybody will be singing in a different key. SD The thing with commodity cycles is that they sometimes last 6 months, and they sometimes last 15 years... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SharperDingaan Posted August 13, 2015 Share Posted August 13, 2015 Quite agree ..... but six months out we could all well be singing the anthem of a different company, simply because this one got gobbled. SD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted August 13, 2015 Share Posted August 13, 2015 Quite agree ..... but six months out we could all well be singing the anthem of a different company, simply because this one got gobbled. SD But would that different company be making much more money if oil stays low? Would they pay much of a premium, and what will PWE go for if things keep getting worse for 6 months? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cardboard Posted August 13, 2015 Share Posted August 13, 2015 Well Sharper, if a buyout is what you are wishing for, then I think you are wasting your time. There are much safer opportunities out there to get average returns. This could have happened a long time ago and they likely said no to much higher offers. Then the history of Legacy is quite telling about what kind of price you can hope for. Moreover, if you are getting shitty paper in exchange as CPG has turned out to be for many who kept holding, then your downward spiral will continue. Then the new Alberta government and little hope for a V shape recovery for oil essentially killed again the market for asset sales. This company IMO is led by a bunch of stubborn people determined to prove everyone wrong: Roberts and George. It would have been easy IMO to sell a crown jewel and make that company near debt free a while ago. The Viking or Cardium could easily have been sold for $80,000 to $100,000 per boe/day earlier this year. They could have sold the Duvernay, Waskada and many others in 2014 but, they never seemed to accept the price. One or a few of these sold and the company would have been on a solid footing. However, they don't want to. They want to keep everything until the market turns up. So I doubt that they will sell anything unless the bankers tell them to due to a covenant breach which is for sure coming if this disastrous price for oil continues. Unfortunately, that will mean fire sale price. That is what you get with stubborn managers. So the only hope to make money here is to get a reasonable rebound for oil or to $60 WTI for them to continue improving operations, paying off some debt via cash flow and more importantly via non-core asset sales. As for the oil price, especially after yesterday's EIA report, it is particularly discouraging. We had an inventory draw that matched analysts expectations. A gasoline draw that was much higher than thought. And, U.S. production resumed its long awaited decline. A bear had to look long and hard to find negatives in that report. Yet the price is the lowest of the year. Of course, the idiotic Saudis and Irakis pumping like crazy and more than their quotas is not helping while China is slowing down, although you see no sign of that in their oil consumption. So, I don't know anymore! Cardboard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SharperDingaan Posted August 13, 2015 Share Posted August 13, 2015 For just about everyone, toughing it out is by far the better option. As it is pretty clear that crude prices are not going to stay at these current levels for any extended period, it is really more of a matter of surviving the remaining desert crossing. Q3 may well be a sh1te quarter, but that’s about it. Just about all would agree, that PWE has many options - beyond asset sales. Most would argue that the wait and see period is coming to a close, and that they are going to have to get off the pot soon. If they do nothing, it is highly likely that they will get gobbled. Prudence argues for some kind of long term JV or royalty agreement, with either a pension fund or a state entity; they have lots of friends. Most would have no issue if the royalty stream came from one of their 3 major plays; as they would still control production, & could replace that flow relatively easily. More telling, is that there have been no additional insider buys since management emerged from lock-up. If we had the additional risk budget - we would be buyers at these levels, and we would assume management had a similar view. That absence implies that management is under a restriction of some kind. A good sign. Agreed it is a frustrating hold, it is getting late in the summer, and there are lots of stubborn people involved. Just keep in mind that stubborn does not mean stupid, and the fat lady eventually runs out of song. Do something else, look the quote up just once a week; and much of the angst disappears. Let them get on with it. SD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest wellmont Posted August 13, 2015 Share Posted August 13, 2015 i would say lower the stock goes the lower oil goes the less options they have. the mistakes are really from last two years. now they are trying to recover from them at an awful time. CPG just said they plan to "wait". the problem is buyers are only human. they get scared as prices decline and happy when they are rising, causing them to pay "happy" prices. no deal at this point will be a good one for pwt shareholders. a deal done in early 2014 - good. now, not so good. Once a stock goes under a buck it's in distress whether it really is or not. that's the perception anyway. remember in Jurassic park one of the themes was "nature finds a way". that's how I feel about insiders. if they see money on the table they take it. "nature finds a way". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted August 13, 2015 Share Posted August 13, 2015 As it is pretty clear that crude prices are not going to stay at these current levels for any extended period, it is really more of a matter of surviving the remaining desert crossing. I guess I don't have your ability to predict commodity prices. It's not clear to me at all that this can't last for an extended period of time. It's very possible to think up a narrative for why these prices are low, but I can also think one for why prices could stay at these levels or go even lower for years. The gold people have been predicting a bounce in short order since 2011. The natural gas people for a few years too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rb Posted August 13, 2015 Share Posted August 13, 2015 As it is pretty clear that crude prices are not going to stay at these current levels for any extended period, it is really more of a matter of surviving the remaining desert crossing. I guess I don't have your ability to predict commodity prices. It's not clear to me at all that this can't last for an extended period of time. It's very possible to think up a narrative for why these prices are low, but I can also think one for why prices could stay at these levels or go even lower for years. The gold people have been predicting a bounce in short order since 2011. The natural gas people for a few years too... I've been thinking about this as well for the past few days. When oil dropped everyone went on about how is just the Saudis playing tough and it'll all be reversed at the April OPEC meeting. Then April came and nothing happened. Then you got a bit of a bump and everyone was like see party is starting up and then it cratered again. So I don't think anyone has any clue. However, I think that Canada is in a pretty tight spot. I'm not sure if we have the highest cost of production but we're definitely near the top. Iran and Iraq are near the bottom and they're ramping up production. So you either have a surge in demand to absorb the new production (I'm not going to go into the macro picture) that's not looking good. You could have the new production replacing declining production in other areas - not in the short term. Or someone needs to cut production - namely the high cost producers. In this scenario Canada doesn't look good and the bad producers in Canada such as PWE look horrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SharperDingaan Posted August 14, 2015 Share Posted August 14, 2015 The oil market is an oligarch of sovereign states. Many sell one product - oil. For sovereigns, the cost of production is the cost of the sovereign social programs & wars divided by the output of the sovereign oil fields. As these costs rise over time, & reservoirs deplete; without change, the sovereign needs a higher oil price - every year. In a stable market, at any given price; market volume is met from the lowest cost producers first. The lowest cost producer produces at their maximum, then the next lowest, until total market volume is met. The low cost producers are SA, Iran, & Iraq. A swing producer controls market price by cutting back their low cost production, in favour of production from higher cost producers. This used to be SA, but became Iran when sanctions were imposed. With sanctions now lifted, these 3 producers need to re-establish their market share, and produce at their maximum. The resultant oversupply drops price until the market eventually clears. The position today. We know that current total SA revenue is too low to meet spend; were it adequate they would not have gone to the global bond market twice so far this year. It is highly likely that Iran & Iraq have similar issues. The collective solution is to cut back production & raise price, such that revenue now equals cost. Each higher cost producer (Russia, US) is also incentivized to persuade the low-cost producers to see the light. There is a sunset mechanism. Most would argue that higher prices are inevitable; many would also expect the rise to be almost instantaneous as buyers rush in to pick up whatever cheap surplus stock they can lay their hands on. When it happens, most would like to be in something highly torqued to oil prices. SD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cardboard Posted August 14, 2015 Share Posted August 14, 2015 I agree with you for the most part SD and I still believe that PWT is really lucky to have many assets and some great ones which gives it options. My concern is timing for oil price recovery and management intent since they lost all of 2014 before they finally decided to be serious about selling non-core assets. They also have stated that they already reached their level of hedging for oil in 2015 at around 20% of liquids. So little protection there. However, I do not understand the Saudis strategy. They have already flooded the market with oil which has brought massive cuts worldwide. The majority of countries are now showing production decline including the United States and it will continue. If OPEC was producing its quota, there would be no over-supply globally. None! I don't know if they are trying to develop new production to end up with instantaneous spare capacity as they used to have and need to be a price dictator but, I firmly believe that the lesson has been learned by other producers that OPEC can come at any time and flood the market. I don't know any financier who will be funding expensive projects going forward without massive collateral deposit, lower debt level and hedges. This makes a lot of projects impossible to finance. For example, Brazil was supposed to produce over twice the amount of oil from offshore by 2020 than is now forecasted. That is a couple million barrels a day right there. Some will now come out and talk about the great economics of U.S. shale... If they are so great, then why Continental Resources which has some of the highest EBITDA margins that I have seen and led by a bull is forecasting a decline in production by the end of 2015? So yes, if the Saudis simply cut back their production to their agreed OPEC quota, then oil would rise rapidly above $60. Then all they have to state is that they will keep an eye on supply. They would make a lot of money and producers worldwide would simply try to fund and maintain their actual production. Cardboard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
plato1976 Posted August 14, 2015 Share Posted August 14, 2015 may I ask the PWE percentage in your portfolio? Did you buy any hedge to protect this position? The oil market is an oligarch of sovereign states. Many sell one product - oil. For sovereigns, the cost of production is the cost of the sovereign social programs & wars divided by the output of the sovereign oil fields. As these costs rise over time, & reservoirs deplete; without change, the sovereign needs a higher oil price - every year. In a stable market, at any given price; market volume is met from the lowest cost producers first. The lowest cost producer produces at their maximum, then the next lowest, until total market volume is met. The low cost producers are SA, Iran, & Iraq. A swing producer controls market price by cutting back their low cost production, in favour of production from higher cost producers. This used to be SA, but became Iran when sanctions were imposed. With sanctions now lifted, these 3 producers need to re-establish their market share, and produce at their maximum. The resultant oversupply drops price until the market eventually clears. The position today. We know that current total SA revenue is too low to meet spend; were it adequate they would not have gone to the global bond market twice so far this year. It is highly likely that Iran & Iraq have similar issues. The collective solution is to cut back production & raise price, such that revenue now equals cost. Each higher cost producer (Russia, US) is also incentivized to persuade the low-cost producers to see the light. There is a sunset mechanism. Most would argue that higher prices are inevitable; many would also expect the rise to be almost instantaneous as buyers rush in to pick up whatever cheap surplus stock they can lay their hands on. When it happens, most would like to be in something highly torqued to oil prices. SD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
enoch01 Posted August 14, 2015 Share Posted August 14, 2015 You can smell the panic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bbarberayr Posted August 14, 2015 Share Posted August 14, 2015 Another problem for the Canadian producers is Western Canadian Select oil prices last week were down to $23.50 with WTI at $43.50 (source TD). There is a problem with a couple of pipelines, so the Canadian oil is having trouble getting to market. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rb Posted August 14, 2015 Share Posted August 14, 2015 Another problem for the Canadian producers is Western Canadian Select oil prices last week were down to $23.50 with WTI at $43.50 (source TD). There is a problem with a couple of pipelines, so the Canadian oil is having trouble getting to market. Yea, transportation is a bitch, but also WCS is a more inferior blend than WTI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cardboard Posted August 14, 2015 Share Posted August 14, 2015 Ok, so the flush below $1 U.S. on heavy volume has been done. You could see it holding at $1 U.S. all day yesterday with holders likely praying for it to hold to avoid NYSE delisting... Too easy for the manipulators. A classic! Regarding WCS, this is heavy oil. It mainly affects their Peace River production. You would have to get a quote on Edmonton Par or now Canadian Light Crude Blend to see what light oil is selling for in CDN$ or the majority of their production. This typically tracks well WTI with a slight discount. At this point, the share price no longer matters. If this company makes it, the key is to hold the shares. It could go lower and you could buy more for the same money but, we have no idea. Just speculation. I mention that since there are 500 million shares outstanding and roughly $2.1 billion in net debt. So weather it trades at $1 CDN or $1.20, it makes very little difference on a private value basis or EV. This company produces 91,000 boe/day with 69% liquids. That is a grand total of $30,000 CDN per boe per day and $8.25 per boe of reserve. This is like paying Bellatrix valuations but, BXE is 70% gas!!! You will have to look hard to find such a cheap oil stock. Cardboard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gary17 Posted August 14, 2015 Share Posted August 14, 2015 Well i just bought some - i am a shoot first ask question later. So now I need to figure out the IV for PWE... got some work to do now :)) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Picasso Posted August 14, 2015 Share Posted August 14, 2015 This suckers heading to zero. Contrarians can take my post with no substance as a reason to buy up the yin-yang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SharperDingaan Posted August 14, 2015 Share Posted August 14, 2015 We are at our maximum weighting, our cost base is well under $2.00/share, & roughly 40% of our position is reinvested house money. We have a long time horizon; O/G & special situations are also well within our circle of competence. Our hedge is the quality & number of PWT assets, our time horizon, & our expertise in securities analysis. Few would disagree that Albertan heavy oil is in very deep trouble, and that the fear of pending massive write-offs and big jumps in unemployment is rightly palpable. However, we would put it to you that similar fear exists in the US, Russia, & amongst OPECs other non-ME partners – where there are other high cost projects. PWT sells primarily light oil, not heavy oil. Yes, some of their production might get shut in – but the vast bulk of it will not be. And now that every Albertan heavy oil producer needs to rapidly lighten production – while they still can; a short to medium term light oil royalty is highly likely to see a lot of bidders. Canadian o/g is a small community, & ya dance with the one that brung ya. It would make an awful lot of sense for PWT to royalty off almost ALL its light oil production, pay off its debt, & reinvest in drilling its existing leases. Keep roughly 20% of its existing production to meet existing hedges - & leave all new production at spot. PWT becomes pretty much bullet proof, they get to keep all their people, & the buyer of that royalty owes them a very big favour. The smartest execution would be a sale of the underlying royalty to a pension plan, and the plan selling a call option on that underlying to a heavy oil producer. PWT has lots of smart folks. SD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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