PWE - Penn West Petroleum

[Uccmal]

"People on here think these companies are worth $40-50,000 per flowing barrel but that would require higher prices.  I remember back before the oil bull run, 2000-2002, most oil companies sold for $25,000 per flowing barrel."

 

Speaking for myself, I don`t think anything. I simply observe multiples being paid by market participants. Those that are closest to the well head, sell that product everyday at spot or on the forward curve and are capable to finance their investment via equity, debt or other means and think that they can earn a return on top of it. I think that these people are more capable than I am to determine what is the value of these assets. 

 

In 2000-2002, it was before the oil bull run. Today, I think that we can call it following a crash or what must now be close to a bottom. Global demand back then was 77 million barrels a day. Today it is 94 million. Since then we have had inflation, a depletion of cheap barrels to extract and much higher finding and development costs. So maybe that this increase in the multiple that they are willing to pay or from $25,000 to $40,000-$50,000 is justified.

 

"So long as the production is cash flow positive they will keep pumping (they really have no choice).  Someone will blink first, or the bankruptcies will start."

 

You are right, they will keep pumping from their existing, completed wells since operating costs are in the $10-$20 a barrel range. However, we are seeing that this does not suffice to maintain production at current level: down over 5% in the U.S. alone in just 5 months. We need new wells being drilled and completed and with less easy capital available it is simply not happening. And bankruptcies won`t change that since it simply means shareholders losing their ownership to banks and bond holders who are already applying their restructuring plan at distressed firms. 

 

Now regarding a macro bet based on the wisdom of Gary Shilling, then I think it is a discussion for another thread.

 

Cardboard

 

Well said.  I think there is some confusion on this thread related to investment styles.  We who have bought recently see more value than was being accorded by the market.  Kevin42u is looking at the perfect oil and gas investment and Penn West comes up deficient in this regard.  It wouldn't be so cheap if it wasn't deficient.

 

The various recent sales are suggesting that Penn West is worth much more than 65 or 80 cents per share.  It doesn't look like it is going into restructuring either.  So that makes it a relatively safe bet.  Not something I want to bet the farm on , but a low risk bet with a high potential return. 

 

The pumping assets of PWT are worth at least the value of COS, especially considering the tar sands political football. 

 

 

[Wilson-TPC]

Another asset sale, this time by Pengrowth Energy:

 

http://www.stockwatch.com/News/Item.aspx?bid=Z-C%3aPGF-2315730&symbol=PGF&region=C

 

At these metrics, PWT shares are worth just over $2 on boe/d basis and around $3.50 on 2P reserves.

 

Cardboard

 

That's heavy crude btw, so the per flowing is at a discount. This is nice. Very nice.

[sculpin]

Libya & Brazil & Chinese demand oh my

 

With thanks to members of the IV BRY board....http://www.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=4288&mn=203901&pt=msg&mid=15360575

 

U.S. oil output on brink of "dramatic" decline, executives say

 

Oct 6 2015, 15:28 ET | By: Carl Surran, SA News Editor 

 

Oil industry execs speaking at the Oil and Money conference in London warn of a "dramatic" decline in U.S. production that could pave the way for a future spike in prices if fuel demand increases.

 

Libya's oil output down to 300,000 bpd

Oct 5 (Reuters) - Libya's oil production has dropped to 300,000 barrels per day, less than a quarter of what it produced before the 2011 fall of Muammar Gaddafi, mostly because of insecurity and closed pipelines, a top official said.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/10/05/libya-energy-idUSL8N12536220151005

 

Oct 5 (Reuters) - State-controlled Petróleo Brasileiro SA , struggling with the biggest debt load among global oil firms, on Monday cut capital spending plans for this year and next by $11 billion in the wake of a slump in Brazil's currency and in oil prices.

In a securities filing, the company, commonly known as Petrobras, said planned investments will be cut to $25 billion and $19 billion for 2015 and 2016, respectively, from $28 billion and $27 billion previously. Budgeted costs plus operating expenses excluding purchases of raw materials were trimmed for this year and next as well, the filing said.

 

WoodMac also had a blog entry this morning about why Chinese oil demand is holding:

 

Analysing each oil product and exploring the drivers for each product, we find that gasoline, aviation fuel, and chemical feedstock related products such as LPG and naphtha are expected to grow robustly due to China's growing need for consumption-oriented products.

 

Specifically, we estimate that around 90% of oil demand growth will stem from consumer-related oil products this year, underpinned by rising household income and urbanisation. China's growing middle class will drive the demand for consumer related oil products – of that there is no doubt.

 

Notably, we have seen growth in air passenger traffic expand at a pace of almost 15% in the first seven months of this year compared to the same period in 2014. As such, our view of jet fuel remains optimistic and demand is expected to expand just over 13% through the rest of 2015.

 

http://www.woodmac.com/analysis/oil-demand-China

 

I am not sure when we gonna finish with the media message that Chinese oil demand is slowing, if anything Chinese oil demand is accelerating compared to last year (unlike other commodities):

[SharperDingaan]

Just keep in mind that while very positive, this is primarily 2016 stuff.

We still have to get through the Q3 earnings report in 2-3 weeks  ;)

 

SD

[influx]

"People on here think these companies are worth $40-50,000 per flowing barrel but that would require higher prices.  I remember back before the oil bull run, 2000-2002, most oil companies sold for $25,000 per flowing barrel."

 

Speaking for myself, I don`t think anything. I simply observe multiples being paid by market participants. Those that are closest to the well head, sell that product everyday at spot or on the forward curve and are capable to finance their investment via equity, debt or other means and think that they can earn a return on top of it. I think that these people are more capable than I am to determine what is the value of these assets. 

 

In 2000-2002, it was before the oil bull run. Today, I think that we can call it following a crash or what must now be close to a bottom. Global demand back then was 77 million barrels a day. Today it is 94 million. Since then we have had inflation, a depletion of cheap barrels to extract and much higher finding and development costs. So maybe that this increase in the multiple that they are willing to pay or from $25,000 to $40,000-$50,000 is justified.

 

"So long as the production is cash flow positive they will keep pumping (they really have no choice).  Someone will blink first, or the bankruptcies will start."

 

You are right, they will keep pumping from their existing, completed wells since operating costs are in the $10-$20 a barrel range. However, we are seeing that this does not suffice to maintain production at current level: down over 5% in the U.S. alone in just 5 months. We need new wells being drilled and completed and with less easy capital available it is simply not happening. And bankruptcies won`t change that since it simply means shareholders losing their ownership to banks and bond holders who are already applying their restructuring plan at distressed firms. 

 

Now regarding a macro bet based on the wisdom of Gary Shilling, then I think it is a discussion for another thread.

 

Cardboard

 

Well said.  I think there is some confusion on this thread related to investment styles.  We who have bought recently see more value than was being accorded by the market.  Kevin42u is looking at the perfect oil and gas investment and Penn West comes up deficient in this regard.  It wouldn't be so cheap if it wasn't deficient.

 

 

Well said - there is a reason for being distressed.

I am kind of, a little bit, regretting of not pulling the trigger big :)

My bull case is more qualitative Management vs oil prices, specially Chairman

[influx]

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=PWT.TO+Interactive#{"showMfi":true,"showRsi":true,"range":"5d","allowChartStacking":true}

 

Pfff 120% in 5 days, for now

I am now thinking someone might be loading and will initiate a bid to acquire it / sell it to someone else

Love this learning and patience patience

[Uccmal]

"People on here think these companies are worth $40-50,000 per flowing barrel but that would require higher prices.  I remember back before the oil bull run, 2000-2002, most oil companies sold for $25,000 per flowing barrel."

 

Speaking for myself, I don`t think anything. I simply observe multiples being paid by market participants. Those that are closest to the well head, sell that product everyday at spot or on the forward curve and are capable to finance their investment via equity, debt or other means and think that they can earn a return on top of it. I think that these people are more capable than I am to determine what is the value of these assets. 

 

In 2000-2002, it was before the oil bull run. Today, I think that we can call it following a crash or what must now be close to a bottom. Global demand back then was 77 million barrels a day. Today it is 94 million. Since then we have had inflation, a depletion of cheap barrels to extract and much higher finding and development costs. So maybe that this increase in the multiple that they are willing to pay or from $25,000 to $40,000-$50,000 is justified.

 

"So long as the production is cash flow positive they will keep pumping (they really have no choice).  Someone will blink first, or the bankruptcies will start."

 

You are right, they will keep pumping from their existing, completed wells since operating costs are in the $10-$20 a barrel range. However, we are seeing that this does not suffice to maintain production at current level: down over 5% in the U.S. alone in just 5 months. We need new wells being drilled and completed and with less easy capital available it is simply not happening. And bankruptcies won`t change that since it simply means shareholders losing their ownership to banks and bond holders who are already applying their restructuring plan at distressed firms. 

 

Now regarding a macro bet based on the wisdom of Gary Shilling, then I think it is a discussion for another thread.

 

Cardboard

 

Well said.  I think there is some confusion on this thread related to investment styles.  We who have bought recently see more value than was being accorded by the market.  Kevin42u is looking at the perfect oil and gas investment and Penn West comes up deficient in this regard.  It wouldn't be so cheap if it wasn't deficient.

 

 

Well said - there is a reason for being distressed.

I am kind of, a little bit, regretting of not pulling the trigger big :)

My bull case is more qualitative Management vs oil prices, specially Chairman

 

There were too many unknowns to pull the trigger in a big way.  Up until 10 days ago this could have gone either way.  No sense beating yourself up over it.  I have pulled the trigger big on things that have gone bad and really regretted it (more than once). 

[kevin4u2]

 

Well said.  I think there is some confusion on this thread related to investment styles.  We who have bought recently see more value than was being accorded by the market.  Kevin42u is looking at the perfect oil and gas investment and Penn West comes up deficient in this regard.  It wouldn't be so cheap if it wasn't deficient.

 

 

Well said - there is a reason for being distressed.

I am kind of, a little bit, regretting of not pulling the trigger big :)

My bull case is more qualitative Management vs oil prices, specially Chairman

 

You regret (in hindsight) for not speculating on oil prices, which happened to move 8% in a matter of days... do you consider this to be rational behavior?  Do you really think that the recent price move confirms your skill and analysis, or is it really luck?  Why doesn't the qualitative analysis of management show up in the financial statements? 

 

To clear up the misunderstanding, I am not looking for the perfect investment, there is no such thing.  I am looking for a rational, sound investment selling at a discount.  If I don't understand it, I will not invest.  If what your saying is that I don't like to speculate, yes, you are correct. 

 

Here are some Buffett quotes on the value investment style.

 

"In the business world, the rearview mirror is always clearer than the windshield."

 

"I have no idea on timing. It’s easier to tell what will happen than when it will happen."

 

“Rule No. 1: Never lose money. Rule No. 2: Never forget Rule No. 1.”

 

"Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing."

 

"There seems to be some perverse human characteristic that likes to make easy things difficult."

 

“Never invest in a business you can’t understand.”

 

"You only have to do a very few things right in your life so long as you don’t do too many things wrong."

 

“It’s far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price.”

 

"Should you find yourself in a chronically leaking boat, energy devoted to changing vessels is likely to be more productive than energy devoted to patching leaks."

 

"I don't look to jump over seven-foot bars; I look around for one-foot bars that I can step over."

 

“Only when you combine sound intellect with emotional discipline do you get rational behavior.”

 

"When a management with a reputation for brilliance tackles a business with a reputation for bad economics, it is the reputation of the business that remains intact"

[influx]

 

Well said.  I think there is some confusion on this thread related to investment styles.  We who have bought recently see more value than was being accorded by the market.  Kevin42u is looking at the perfect oil and gas investment and Penn West comes up deficient in this regard.  It wouldn't be so cheap if it wasn't deficient.

 

 

Well said - there is a reason for being distressed.

I am kind of, a little bit, regretting of not pulling the trigger big :)

My bull case is more qualitative Management vs oil prices, specially Chairman

 

You regret (in hindsight) for not speculating on oil prices, which happened to move 8% in a matter of days... do you consider this to be rational behavior?  Do you really think that the recent price move confirms your skill and analysis, or is it really luck?  Why doesn't the qualitative analysis of management show up in the financial statements? 

 

To clear up the misunderstanding, I am not looking for the perfect investment, there is no such thing.  I am looking for a rational, sound investment selling at a discount.  If I don't understand it, I will not invest.  If what your saying is that I don't like to speculate, yes, you are correct. 

 

Here are some Buffett quotes on the value investment style.

 

"In the business world, the rearview mirror is always clearer than the windshield."

 

"I have no idea on timing. It’s easier to tell what will happen than when it will happen."

 

“Rule No. 1: Never lose money. Rule No. 2: Never forget Rule No. 1.”

 

"Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing."

 

"There seems to be some perverse human characteristic that likes to make easy things difficult."

 

“Never invest in a business you can’t understand.”

 

"You only have to do a very few things right in your life so long as you don’t do too many things wrong."

 

“It’s far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price.”

 

"Should you find yourself in a chronically leaking boat, energy devoted to changing vessels is likely to be more productive than energy devoted to patching leaks."

 

"I don't look to jump over seven-foot bars; I look around for one-foot bars that I can step over."

 

“Only when you combine sound intellect with emotional discipline do you get rational behavior.”

 

"When a management with a reputation for brilliance tackles a business with a reputation for bad economics, it is the reputation of the business that remains intact"

 

I am well aware of all this. I know it is a speculation. I would say a partial speculation to be honest because of qualitative metrics which are subjective think. Hell even intrinsic value is abit subjective, not too much though.

Remember that Buffett/Munger said that qualitative things specially management do not always show up on financial statement. It is rare though! In this case why?

1. they needed time since 2013H2

2. oil prices went down in meantime

3. they need more time now

 

I am not beating myself but A LITTLE BIT regret it. Just sharing for better discussion and so we can learn. It is after all risk, true, and if one doesnt take, then one cannot gain. My choice was rational:

1. to keep extra powder; the most important thing for me

2. i dont know how long the oil prices will stay at this or lower level

BUT I STILL think that the qualitative aspects of the management (their experience, relations with financial institutions and all that) is the necessary staying power. Just a non-quantitative metric :)

Also, please remember how Buffett invested in his early days. Take the AMEX exposure. Take many of his big bets and not necessarily moat based investments. What you said, I perfectly agree and this is ESPECIALLY correct for larger money. I think there is a bit of recency bias if you will when referring to Buffett and co., he did not invest like this all his life and the majority of the writings and books are all to the lets say 2nd part of BRK. But this is another thread. So, I'll stop.

 

As I said I sort of agreed with SD (e.g. $0.5..-> goes to $1..what do you lose..take the profit..)

 

My point, to learn from our diversity and difference in opinion/perspective.

[Uccmal]

 

Well said.  I think there is some confusion on this thread related to investment styles.  We who have bought recently see more value than was being accorded by the market.  Kevin42u is looking at the perfect oil and gas investment and Penn West comes up deficient in this regard.  It wouldn't be so cheap if it wasn't deficient.

 

 

Well said - there is a reason for being distressed.

I am kind of, a little bit, regretting of not pulling the trigger big :)

My bull case is more qualitative Management vs oil prices, specially Chairman

 

You regret (in hindsight) for not speculating on oil prices, which happened to move 8% in a matter of days... do you consider this to be rational behavior?  Do you really think that the recent price move confirms your skill and analysis, or is it really luck?  Why doesn't the qualitative analysis of management show up in the financial statements? 

 

To clear up the misunderstanding, I am not looking for the perfect investment, there is no such thing.  I am looking for a rational, sound investment selling at a discount.  If I don't understand it, I will not invest.  If what your saying is that I don't like to speculate, yes, you are correct. 

 

Here are some Buffett quotes on the value investment style.

 

"In the business world, the rearview mirror is always clearer than the windshield."

 

"I have no idea on timing. It’s easier to tell what will happen than when it will happen."

 

“Rule No. 1: Never lose money. Rule No. 2: Never forget Rule No. 1.”

 

"Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing."

 

"There seems to be some perverse human characteristic that likes to make easy things difficult."

 

“Never invest in a business you can’t understand.”

 

"You only have to do a very few things right in your life so long as you don’t do too many things wrong."

 

“It’s far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price.”

 

"Should you find yourself in a chronically leaking boat, energy devoted to changing vessels is likely to be more productive than energy devoted to patching leaks."

 

"I don't look to jump over seven-foot bars; I look around for one-foot bars that I can step over."

 

“Only when you combine sound intellect with emotional discipline do you get rational behavior.”

 

"When a management with a reputation for brilliance tackles a business with a reputation for bad economics, it is the reputation of the business that remains intact"

 

Good grief.  Lacking a bit of humility are we Kevin? 

 

All investing is speculating.  To believe otherwise is dangerous.  Kevin, no amount of analysis can protect you from the future. 

 

Some of the investors from this thread have been at this game, successfully, for a long time.

 

BTW, I think your analysis of PWT and O&G, in general, are good Kevin.  But please spare us the Buffett quotes, and the "you guys dont know anything attitude". 

 

 

[frommi]

Kevin, no amount of analysis can protect you from the future. 

 

Then whats the purpose of all these posts in this forum? Fight boredom?

[influx]

Kevin, no amount of analysis can protect you from the future. 

 

Then whats the purpose of all these posts in this forum? Fight boredom?

 

to learn by sharing and discussing

 

Back to the programm, bold is mine. For some refreshing perspective, qualitative reading. Not new though.

 

"The current oil downturn is going to last four years, “may be longer,” he predicts.

http://business.financialpost.com/news/energy/rick-george-sees-a-cleansing-of-the-oil-industry-after-years-of-profligate-spending

 

http://calgaryherald.com/business/energy/ewart-the-incredible-shrinking-penn-west-petroleum-eyes-a-turnaround

“We are certainly aware of what the stock price has done and what it hasn’t done, more importantly,” George said in response to one shareholder

 

“The process of re-establishing operational credibility  … takes some time,” said Roberts, a Texan who was chief operating officer at Marathon Oil  Corp. before he took the top job at Penn West in 2013. “That’s why we’ve said we are going to be very patient and focused. We hammered on debt. We’ve hammered on operational capability and we think over time people are going to respond to that.”

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Appointment_to_the_Order_of_Canada#Officer

Appointment into the Order of Canada is the process by which Canadians citizens or certain foreign persons are inducted into the Order of Canada, an act that is Canada's second highest civilian honour within the country's system of honours. Any living Canadian or foreign national may be nominated for appointment; however, the Advisory Council of the Order of Canada and the Governor General of Canada make the final decision on appointments. Members of the order may also be elevated within it if he or she has continued to provide service to Canada, or to humanity in general, after their appointment

 

Officer[edit]

A person can be appointed to the rank of Officer for "achievement and merit of a high degree, especially service to Canada or to humanity at large." Unlike the rank of Companion, there is no limit on how many Officers can be living at one time, though the Governor General may only appoint up to sixty-four Officers per year, excluding honorary appointments. A person can become an Officer by being promoted from the grade of Member or being appointed directly to the rank.

Member[edit]

A person can be appointed to the rank of Member for "distinguished service in or to a particular community, group or field of activity." There is no limit to how many Members can be living at one time, though the Governor General may only appoint up to 136 Members per year

 

https://www.gg.ca/document.aspx?id=14940

the Order of Canada is the cornerstone of the Canadian Honours System, and recognizes outstanding achievement, dedication to the community and service to the nation. The Order recognizes people in all sectors of Canadian society. Their contributions are varied, yet they have all enriched the lives of others and made a difference to this country. Since its creation, more than 6 000 people from all sectors of society have been invested into the Order.

 

Officer (O.C.)

Order of Canada, Officerrecognizes national service or achievement; and

 

Member (C.M.)

Order of Canada, Memberrecognizes outstanding contributions at the local or regional level or in a special field of activity.

[Uccmal]

Kevin, no amount of analysis can protect you from the future. 

 

Then whats the purpose of all these posts in this forum? Fight boredom?

 

I guess I should have wrote a Donald Rumsfeld logic statement instead. 

[goldfinger]

PWE uploaded October presentation: http://pennwest.com/upload/media_element/media_file/15

 

Confirms net debt at 1.8B$ after recent asset dispositions, additional cost savings of 5-10% in 2016, additional 13C$/boe because of exchange rate compared to US companies, confirms separation between core and non-core production (Swan Hills is a big debt reducer probably in the recent future), won't spend more than FFO in 2016, netbacks at 22.5C$ in current environment (core production netbacks will be around 40C$/boe at 70$ WTI). While oil prices can still explore sub 40s for a while, there are many bullish signs appearing everywhere and supply/demand equation is tightening everywhere. PWE at 50c was crazy crazy cheap and still is very very cheap IMHO.

[Packer16]

Some additions from my understanding.  The 22 is core netback (which does not include non-core assets) who still may be drilled and the numbers are based upon YTD results with an average WTI of US$54.

 

Packer

[Cardboard]

Another day, another acquisition in the Canadian oil patch: $89,000 per boe/d and $11.87 per boe of 2P reserves. And that is for liquid rich natural gas!

 

http://www.stockwatch.com/News/Item.aspx?bid=Z-C%3aKCK-2316679&symbol=KCK&region=C

 

Cardboard

[Wilson-TPC]

Another day, another acquisition in the Canadian oil patch: $89,000 per boe/d and $11.87 per boe of 2P reserves. And that is for liquid rich natural gas!

 

http://www.stockwatch.com/News/Item.aspx?bid=Z-C%3aKCK-2316679&symbol=KCK&region=C

 

Cardboard

 

Kicking Horse had impressive corporate netbacks. On a per flowing boe/d multiple, it was 8.9x on corporate netback.

[influx]

I will add this (potential bearish) action, board member Byrdson, John:

1. Oct 15/15, sold,-200,000, $USD1.11

2. May 15/15, bought,+200,000, $USD2.08

 

So this is nearly $USD200,000 loss

 

He still should be having 503,000 shares. Bearish definitely according me, but not necessarily too much

[SharperDingaan]

We all might all want to be hedged going into the Q3 earnings announcement .....

 

1. Given the results that the rest of the patch have been posting - a headline loss is highly likely.

2. It will take very little to drive the price back under $US 1.00 - & institutional holders back out.

3. A SINGLE close below $US 1.00 in the next week - & the NYSE day count restarts.

 

May we all do well.

SD

[Uccmal]

I will add this (potential bearish) action, board member Byrdson, John:

1. Oct 15/15, sold,-200,000, $USD1.11

2. May 15/15, bought,+200,000, $USD2.08

 

So this is nearly $USD200,000 loss

 

He still should be having 503,000 shares. Bearish definitely according me, but not necessarily too much

 

Tax loss selling, perhaps.  The shares he sold were bought at much higher prices, based on first in, first out.  I have done it early in the fall to offset other gains. 

[Uccmal]

We all might all want to be hedged going into the Q3 earnings announcement .....

 

1. Given the results that the rest of the patch have been posting - a headline loss is highly likely.

2. It will take very little to drive the price back under $US 1.00 - & institutional holders back out.

3. A SINGLE close below $US 1.00 in the next week - & the NYSE day count restarts.

 

May we all do well.

SD

 

I am missing something.  Who in Canada has reported?  I ran through at least 20 I know of and their all upcoming still. 

 

But your point is taken.  Results are likely to look weak.  That may trigger tax loss selling.... the price had points since Jan. when it was above $3.00 CDN.  There may be a good reload opportunity coming up. 

[SharperDingaan]

PD, Mullen, & a good chunk of the (mostly) US O/G service industry.

 

Beyond the obvious, the common theme has been IFRS driven impairment write-downs on equipment (PV of future revenue no longer able to support capitalized cost). In addition to regular business, this quarter PWE will have lay-off costs, possibly some losses on the recent asset sales, & quite likely some similar IFRS impairment write-downs on any shut in production. Kitchen sink quarter.

 

Not the end of the world, but hard to justify the current price.

 

SD

 

 

[influx]

Not the end of the world, but hard to justify the current price.

 

SD

 

Meaning? You expect lower or higher price given the Q3 financials? What exactly do you expect please? :)

[Uccmal]

PD, Mullen, & a good chunk of the (mostly) US O/G service industry.

 

Beyond the obvious, the common theme has been IFRS driven impairment write-downs on equipment (PV of future revenue no longer able to support capitalized cost). In addition to regular business, this quarter PWE will have lay-off costs, possibly some losses on the recent assets sales, & quite likely some similar IFRS impairment write-downs on any shut in production. Kitchen sink quarter.

 

Not the end of the world, but hard to justify the current price.

 

SD

 

 

 

Mullen's O&G side was certainly weak as I expected.  Trucking did very well and since this is the focus of Mullen's growth they will do well.  Any pricing improvement in the O&G division will be gravy. 

 

Pwt should do well in the longer term.  One caveat is that it makes up <2.5% of my investments wheres Mullen is around 10-12%. 

[SharperDingaan]

Meaning? You expect lower or higher price given the Q3 financials? What exactly do you expect please? :)

 

Longer term they should do well; not so much over the next month with short interests incentivized to beat on the piñata.

 

SD