constala Posted June 28, 2017 Share Posted June 28, 2017 www.streetinsider.com/Corporate+News/Penn+West+Petroleum+%28PWE%29+Says+It+Was+Named+in+Lawsuit+Due+to+Previously+Disclosed+Accounting+Practices/13053048.html Jizz. I thought this was ancient and buried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pelagic Posted June 28, 2017 Share Posted June 28, 2017 Any thoughts on the magnitude of a negative ruling against Obsidian? It's hard to understand why the lawsuit was brought in the first place considering a class action has already been settled and those involved have left the company and the company disclosed the problem in 2014. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uccmal Posted June 28, 2017 Share Posted June 28, 2017 No idea. I am out of the stock right now but interested as it gets cheaper. Problem is this costs money to deal with, and then there is the inevitable settlement, which I cant imagine being much. They was no obstruction or hiding so why is the SEC even interested. They need to delist from the NYSE asap. Its just a waste of money and an added regulatory hassle. This is a company with no assets in the US, and no need to borrow in the US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roundball100 Posted June 28, 2017 Share Posted June 28, 2017 Maybe they should change their name, since now the name Obsidian is tarnished by a negative past. Does anyone know if the name "Penn West Petroleum" is available? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uccmal Posted June 28, 2017 Share Posted June 28, 2017 Maybe they should change their name, since now the name Obsidian is tarnished by a negative past. Does anyone know if the name "Penn West Petroleum" is available? lol, rather ironic... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SharperDingaan Posted June 28, 2017 Share Posted June 28, 2017 Thank you Mr Market for today's shares ;) A simple return to just $C 2.00 is a 25% profit at these prices. SD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KFRCanuk Posted June 30, 2017 Share Posted June 30, 2017 Out of everything they need to work on, Management decides to spend time and resources on a name change? WTH? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uccmal Posted June 30, 2017 Share Posted June 30, 2017 Out of everything they need to work on, Management decides to spend time and resources on a name change? WTH? Yeah, Now that I think of it I am underwhelmed. They could have taken the opportunity during a special shareholders meeting to do something useful, like a share consoidation. Hopefully, they have the I banks shopping the company. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SharperDingaan Posted July 1, 2017 Share Posted July 1, 2017 Out of everything they need to work on, Management decides to spend time and resources on a name change? WTH? Yeah, Now that I think of it I am underwhelmed. They could have taken the opportunity during a special shareholders meeting to do something useful, like a share consoidation. Hopefully, they have the I banks shopping the company. The good news is that it has now become very hard to argue against consolidation, and a career limiting move. The re-branding has stalled, and there are now questions as to whether management has the cohones to make the hard decisions. This is nowhere near the hard decision that selling Viking was; yet somehow it appears to be too difficult? SD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted July 3, 2017 Share Posted July 3, 2017 Out of everything they need to work on, Management decides to spend time and resources on a name change? WTH? Brand is very important in a commodity business like oil, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldfinger Posted July 3, 2017 Share Posted July 3, 2017 Out of everything they need to work on, Management decides to spend time and resources on a name change? WTH? Brand is very important in a commodity business like oil, right? It probably has to do with investors not consumers? ::) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uccmal Posted August 9, 2017 Share Posted August 9, 2017 Decent Q2 results. Looks like a steady run rate of 30 k bpd for now. Reducing Capex for the second half to conserve cash until/if prices rise. There are showing some discipline. Not quite EPS profitable yet. Their metrics are looking reasonable. Not as good as Whitecap but getting close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SharperDingaan Posted August 9, 2017 Share Posted August 9, 2017 Very nice report gentlemen. Just to highlight a few positives that are somewhat buried in the numbers. Q2 numbers are extremely good, DESPITE 1) Q2 being the slow season, 2) Q2 including the seasonal maintenance expenses, and 3) 4,649 boe/d of legacy assets contributing a 10 boe/d net-back loss. All that drag … & they still manage to essentially break-even. Congratulations. But better still … is the $1 boe/d net-back saving expected over 2H 2017 (increasing FFO by 2.7M/Qtr), phenomenal Viking success, and the additional wells coming on stream in Q3 – raising the light/heavy oil mix. The 4,649 boe/d of legacy assets (16% of production) aren’t a liability either, as they are not shut-in (ie: they are at least covering some of their fixed costs), & their costs are already being covered. Every $1 increase in price from today’s levels, goes straight to the bottom line. The company has turned around, crossed the break-even point, and is set up for a great future. May we humbly suggest that the next step is to fix the share count. SD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrispy Posted August 10, 2017 Share Posted August 10, 2017 Always get a lot out of what you share, SD. What do you guys think will be the floor on this? I did not expect this to go below $1 with pricing close to $50. Seems like prices will have to sustain at 50 or above, this SEC business will have to be resolved, EPS positive for 1 or 2 quarters, and ideally shares bought. Management has not discussed purchasing shares yet, correct? I plan on picking up a chunk of shares soon, it just seems like tomorrow the price will always be cheaper. While the business aspect seems to be doing well, the market sentiment changing seems a little ways away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uccmal Posted August 10, 2017 Share Posted August 10, 2017 Always get a lot out of what you share, SD. What do you guys think will be the floor on this? I did not expect this to go below $1 with pricing close to $50. Seems like prices will have to sustain at 50 or above, this SEC business will have to be resolved, EPS positive for 1 or 2 quarters, and ideally shares bought. Management has not discussed purchasing shares yet, correct? I plan on picking up a chunk of shares soon, it just seems like tomorrow the price will always be cheaper. While the business aspect seems to be doing well, the market sentiment changing seems a little ways away. I think we need to see a share consolidation of at least 5:1. And I wonder why they didn't do it during the special meeting. Its not marginable below $3.00 CDN, and institutions are governed by various mandates that dont allow them to buy below $3.00 or $5.00 per share, what have you. So, right now available shareholders are limited. I came back in, and hold 30 k as a placeholder at 1.61 average. Small position, but I need time to get some comfort with the new management. They have done a better job hedging. Part of the problem is that the comparables with prior periods are meaningless. Unless one dives deep it looks as though they are worse off. And yes the SEC suit is a distraction but it isn't going to break the company. I hold this and a big position in WCP, which is doing pretty poorly as well (I am not underwater on WCP). They are getting a combination of no love, and an effect from low oil prices. WCP has stated that they will remain funds flow positive to $40 USD per barrel. OBE is not quite that well off. As usual, a big bump in commodity proces would start to feed huge cash flows to everyone in the oil patch. It is beyond me that when or if this will occur. Until we see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paarslaars Posted August 11, 2017 Share Posted August 11, 2017 Welcome back! :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SharperDingaan Posted August 11, 2017 Share Posted August 11, 2017 Our own thoughts are that OBE should delist from both the NYSE and TSE, and relist on the TSE. There are various reverse takeover models OBE could look at, but the basics are that OBE essentially takes itself private, & relists as another company. Yes it's a rarity, but it makes a lot of sense if the price (including take-out premium) is well below BV; and old shareholders on take-out day are offered an election to either take cash, or their proportional share value in the new listing. Given that every share repurchased at < BV adds to the collective gain in IV, to benefit - all shareholders have strong incentive to hold their position on take-out day. Materially reducing the amount of cash required. Nightmare for our short friends, hence the dissing ... 1) To stop the process, the current share price has to rise to at least its equivalent - under what it would be if there was a new listing, 2) the floor on the current share price becomes the take-out price the company sets - & the lower the current price goes, the more the take-out premium can be, 3) a short time-line forces short covering into the market, creating the demand to drive the current share price to at least the take-out price the company has set, 4) demonstrate the precedent using OBE, changes the game; & allows others to do the same thing - behooving the industry to give OBE a boost all along the chain, 5) plays into the calls to do a 'buy-back' - we have!, 6) allows a new capital structure, and a dividend on a materially lower number of shares, 7) it is essentially cost free - as the cost of the transaction can be written off against the BV gain on repurchase. Surprising if their advisers haven't suggested something like this to them, even if it is something of a 'black swan'. Our own thoughts are roughly a 2:1 share consolidation, for a float big enough to work with - but nice and tight. There will be a lot of very angry shorts reading this; so expect the current share price to go a lot lower. All good ;) SD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uccmal Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 CEO was buying 4 times in August for a total of 76000 shares. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SharperDingaan Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 As the expression goes; 'follow the money' .... and not the pundits. They're doing a great job operationally, but the share count & capital structure remains a real issue. Our expectation is that they get it done & dusted by year-end - with bonuses (in stock) attached. SD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cardboard Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 It is quite interesting that I traded PWT 4 or 5 times (in and out) in the $0.60 to $1.50 range to end up finding myself totally out of the big move from $1.30 all the way to $2.50 on the Saskatchewan sale to my great disappointment... And now it trades at about $1.30 and was very close to breach $1 in mid-August! The negativity surrounding Canadian energy (especially smaller caps) is unreal. There are companies such as CONA and CJ giving you 10% dividend yields that appear relatively safe IMO. CONA is nearly private so the odds of a take-out are good and financial distress quite remote. You also have debt free HWO or a service provider also paying a sweet 5%+ yield. Right now, you can go around and pick pretty much whatever interests you. A move up comes along, and you can trade into something that is as cheap or maybe even cheaper... Regarding OBE share count, this has nearly zero impact on valuation IMO. Look around you and you see ARX trading near a 52 week low. Even a darling such as VII is at the lows. Both of them have mid-teens share prices. Where are the institutions in these SD? The key problem is total lack of interest due to a very long period of investement underperformance and the smaller is the company, the worst it gets. Cardboard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SharperDingaan Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Agreed there is no initial impact on market valuation, it would still trade on industry metrics that do not include BV. But raise the price enough to permit institutional buying, and you've not just raised demand - you've materially raised it. Higher demand on the lower supply (of consolidated shares) moving price up quite a bit. Furthermore, a success at OBE would be repeated industry wide; raising the industry metrics as well - & generating a 2nd price rise. At some point (probably 2018) OBE will have cash again for dividends. Obviously, the fewer outstanding shares there are - the more meaningful the per share dividend can be. All of which is very difficult to vote against, should you be a board member. SD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
longlake95 Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 As the pain continues, I continue to add this week. Oil in backwardation. Demand improving - supply back in balance. European majors hitting new highs as Brent moves higher and pulls ahead of WTI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uccmal Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 As the pain continues, I continue to add this week. Oil in backwardation. Demand improving - supply back in balance. European majors hitting new highs as Brent moves higher and pulls ahead of WTI. Mulling it over..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
longlake95 Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 The other driver here for me...with Saudi Aramco's planned 2018 IPO - i just dont see the Arabs selling their prized asset at $50 oil...would you? I'd do whatever it takes to get oil up before I sell my most important national asset. so PWE ....wait OBE is not moving until oil moves higher... A small divy would be nice.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SharperDingaan Posted September 21, 2017 Share Posted September 21, 2017 The other driver here for me...with Saudi Aramco's planned 2018 IPO - i just dont see the Arabs selling their prized asset at $50 oil...would you? I'd do whatever it takes to get oil up before I sell my most important national asset. so PWE ....wait OBE is not moving until oil moves higher... A small divy would be nice.... We've been shopping & would like to have done more - but capital is pretty limited at the moment. You might want to look at a calendar; & make your own estimates as to how long it takes to circulate a proposal, get it voted on, get it approved by the board, & then implemented ;) Then add in the recent insider buying, & change in IR staffing. A while back there was some investment research evidencing that the annual return in a concentrated portfolio is largely attributable to being right; on less than 11 critical trading days in the year. We would suggest that some of those critical trading days are about to appear. SD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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