Sunrider Posted March 24, 2017 Share Posted March 24, 2017 Thank you - if the guy is right and debt is not due till 2020 and there aren't any covenant issues (need to check) then the management team has time to sort stuff out. .... By the way, have you got a link to Baker Street shutting down? Thanks C. I wonder what people here think about the state of affairs - the market clearly has given up on this one, but how likely is bankruptcy? The bonds don't seem to have budged too much over the last couple of days and if the firm survives, would the equity be a bargain? I've only looked at it briefly and did not have time to dive into the financials but hope someone here has a view? Thank you. C. Outside of the Baker Street deck, this is the best thesis I found online: http://www.oozingalpha.com/wac-ocn-deja-vu/ Reading the financials is brain hemorrhage inducing. Read the 10k with caution :) Not sure you can blindly look at metrics like BV since they have $12bn in "Residual Loans at Fair Value," with little to no insight on how that number if derived. No LEAPs available either. Selling pressure could just Baker be liquidating their very large position after closing shop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winjitsu Posted March 24, 2017 Share Posted March 24, 2017 No formal notice... just a guess based on the article below https://www.forbes.com/sites/nathanvardi/2017/03/16/the-34-year-old-hedge-fund-manager-who-bet-everything-on-a-stock-that-tanked/#20aba24a7fcf Edit: Be careful, as its not just the debt due, but access to the capital markets in general. From their recent press release: We are a highly leveraged company, in relation to our ability to service our debt and on a relative basis in comparison to our peers. We depend upon ongoing access to the loan markets and the capital markets on commercially satisfactory terms to finance our business on a daily basis, and we would also need access to those markets to refinance our corporate debt. We have engaged Weil, Gotshal & Manges LLP and Houlihan Lokey to assist us in reviewing a number of potential actions we may take to reduce our leverage. Anyways, best of luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ballinvarosig Investors Posted March 24, 2017 Share Posted March 24, 2017 No formal notice... just a guess based on the article below https://www.forbes.com/sites/nathanvardi/2017/03/16/the-34-year-old-hedge-fund-manager-who-bet-everything-on-a-stock-that-tanked/#20aba24a7fcf According to that article. Perelman’s U.S. stock portfolio has gone from $854 million in 2013, including the notional value of a large number of options, to $35 million in September 2016, SEC filings show. Walter has fallen 80% since then, so assuming that it's just the common stock that Baker Street hold, their AUM should currently be about $7M. It's hard not to be impressed by Vadim Perelman here. To lose 99% of the value of your hedge fund in 4 years during a raging bull market is a considerable achievement. Question to you all, if someone had said to you in 2013; here's $850M, your goal is lose 99% of the value within 4 years by investing only in $1bn+ US securities. Do you think you have could have done it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwoCitiesCapital Posted March 24, 2017 Share Posted March 24, 2017 No formal notice... just a guess based on the article below https://www.forbes.com/sites/nathanvardi/2017/03/16/the-34-year-old-hedge-fund-manager-who-bet-everything-on-a-stock-that-tanked/#20aba24a7fcf According to that article. Perelman’s U.S. stock portfolio has gone from $854 million in 2013, including the notional value of a large number of options, to $35 million in September 2016, SEC filings show. Walter has fallen 80% since then, so assuming that it's just the common stock that Baker Street hold, their AUM should currently be about $7M. It's hard not to be impressed by Vadim Perelman here. To lose 99% of the value of your hedge fund in 4 years during a raging bull market is a considerable achievement. Question to you all, if someone had said to you in 2013; here's $850M, your goal is lose 99% of the value within 4 years by investing only in $1bn+ US securities. Do you think you have could have done it? Yes, I think I could have, but practice is always different than theory. Care to give me the $850M so I can try? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunrider Posted March 24, 2017 Share Posted March 24, 2017 Hold-off I'll do it with $851m. I'll send you my account details ... ;) No formal notice... just a guess based on the article below https://www.forbes.com/sites/nathanvardi/2017/03/16/the-34-year-old-hedge-fund-manager-who-bet-everything-on-a-stock-that-tanked/#20aba24a7fcf According to that article. Perelman’s U.S. stock portfolio has gone from $854 million in 2013, including the notional value of a large number of options, to $35 million in September 2016, SEC filings show. Walter has fallen 80% since then, so assuming that it's just the common stock that Baker Street hold, their AUM should currently be about $7M. It's hard not to be impressed by Vadim Perelman here. To lose 99% of the value of your hedge fund in 4 years during a raging bull market is a considerable achievement. Question to you all, if someone had said to you in 2013; here's $850M, your goal is lose 99% of the value within 4 years by investing only in $1bn+ US securities. Do you think you have could have done it? Yes, I think I could have, but practice is always different than theory. Care to give me the $850M so I can try? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AzCactus Posted March 24, 2017 Share Posted March 24, 2017 I think some board members have had similar experiences with the likes of VRX, SHLD and to a greater extent ZINC. No point in kicking a guy who is already down. I'm not defending him at all---I just don't see what is gained by that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gurpaul88 Posted March 24, 2017 Share Posted March 24, 2017 I don't think creditors would want to put this one in bankruptcy, restructuring possibly. A lot of hair on this one. I was wrong with book value, it is actually negative if you take out the DTA. No position keeping an eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valueyoda Posted March 24, 2017 Share Posted March 24, 2017 The WAC bonds are not a bad bet at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunrider Posted March 24, 2017 Share Posted March 24, 2017 I think some board members have had similar experiences with the likes of VRX, SHLD and to a greater extent ZINC. No point in kicking a guy who is already down. I'm not defending him at all---I just don't see what is gained by that. This is true - my prior post was in lighthearted jest, although it is clearly no joking matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DooDiligence Posted May 31, 2017 Share Posted May 31, 2017 The bear case is a convergence of bad circumstances. Decline in the total balance of serviceable mortgages, even lower mortgage rates, liquidity issues, blowout of CDS spreads, decline in the economy. The reason that I bought the bonds over the stock is that the risk-reward is better in the bonds, but I wouldn't be amazed if the bonds traded down in the 30s or 20s if things worsen, so it is a starter position until I get a better handle on the company. Did you buy the convertible 4.5% & do you still own them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrB Posted May 31, 2017 Share Posted May 31, 2017 I think some board members have had similar experiences with the likes of VRX, SHLD and to a greater extent ZINC. No point in kicking a guy who is already down. I'm not defending him at all---I just don't see what is gained by that. Still gets points for this though http://www.valuewalk.com/2012/04/baker-street-capital-management-writes-activist-letter-to-berkshire-hathaway-inc-brk-a-brk-b/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DooDiligence Posted May 31, 2017 Share Posted May 31, 2017 Convertibles get 17.x shares per which doesn't look at all attractive unless you got the principal at 2019 end. Would it be better to own the 7.87500% 12/15/2021 for the longer duration? (give the 2 activist BOD's & CEO time to fix the biz and/or at least stop having to restate financials) I'm prob not gonna do anything here, just trying to learn how to look at debt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DooDiligence Posted May 31, 2017 Share Posted May 31, 2017 I think some board members have had similar experiences with the likes of VRX, SHLD and to a greater extent ZINC. No point in kicking a guy who is already down. I'm not defending him at all---I just don't see what is gained by that. Still gets points for this though http://www.valuewalk.com/2012/04/baker-street-capital-management-writes-activist-letter-to-berkshire-hathaway-inc-brk-a-brk-b/ "Berkshire clearly lacks a robust investor relations strategy." Whoa, stop right there (I'm definitely NOT buying anything from WAC...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DooDiligence Posted May 31, 2017 Share Posted May 31, 2017 "Berkshire has historically pursued an opportunistic acquisition strategy. While this whimsical approach may have worked in the past, a more structured process would benefit shareholders in the current environment. We urge the board to immediately retain a reputable investment bank withsignificant experience in mergers and acquisitions to complement Berkshire’s in-house skill set. An obvious advantage would be to enhance Berkshire’s rudimentary approach to target company valuation and compensate for senior management’s lack of financial modeling experience. All Berkshire directorsshould take their fiduciary duties seriously and protect shareholders from Mr. Buffett’s track record of losses stemming from questionable acquisitions, including Dexter Shoes in 1993 and a Sinclair gasolinestation in 1951." Vadim Perelman Who is this guy & why has Munger not destroyed him? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTShine Posted May 31, 2017 Share Posted May 31, 2017 Just no one is misled, that letter to Berkshire was an april fools joke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DooDiligence Posted May 31, 2017 Share Posted May 31, 2017 Just no one is misled, that letter to Berkshire was an april fools joke. Word? BTW Love your avatar & I will... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DooDiligence Posted May 31, 2017 Share Posted May 31, 2017 I think some board members have had similar experiences with the likes of VRX, SHLD and to a greater extent ZINC. No point in kicking a guy who is already down. I'm not defending him at all---I just don't see what is gained by that. Still gets points for this though http://www.valuewalk.com/2012/04/baker-street-capital-management-writes-activist-letter-to-berkshire-hathaway-inc-brk-a-brk-b/ Permission to re-Tweet? (only if this truly was an April Fools Day dealio...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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