GroupePretoria Posted May 28, 2014 Share Posted May 28, 2014 XPEL stock have been rocked a little lately. I try to find news (good or bad) and cannot find anything relevant. Any idea? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LC Posted May 28, 2014 Share Posted May 28, 2014 i've only been following it passively and haven't come across anything...i assume it was general microcap illiquidity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LanceSanity Posted May 30, 2014 Share Posted May 30, 2014 Q1 earnings out. This still shows insane growth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowball82 Posted May 30, 2014 Author Share Posted May 30, 2014 The company reports today... + 70 % sales / profits ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yadayada Posted May 30, 2014 Share Posted May 30, 2014 seems profit is down a bit relatively. But they are probably aggressively expanding networks to sell these films to dealers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GroupePretoria Posted May 30, 2014 Share Posted May 30, 2014 International shipping costs maybe a little higher but it seems like increases come from new salaries Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowball82 Posted May 31, 2014 Author Share Posted May 31, 2014 Not sure investors see all the potential here. Company growing at 70 % & + 75 % profits are rare. They haven't long term debt and growth to international without acquisition....please write me private if you know a comparable situation ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yadayada Posted May 31, 2014 Share Posted May 31, 2014 altisource (ASPS) is actually very comparable to this, even cheaper and better. trading at 9-10x 2014 earnings, huge growth runway, bigger moat then this one, growing 40-50% growth a year (with operating leverage, 200% return on capital. Extremly committed chairman. I think they will do like 2-3 million in net income this year, so this one isnt that cheap now. Still own it tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yadayada Posted June 22, 2014 Share Posted June 22, 2014 http://microcapclub.com/2014/01/microcapclub-invitational-xpel-technologies-dap-u-xplt/ Must watch if you want to invest. Actually net income was 470k 1st quarter. This business is seasonal tho and sells more in Q2 and Q3. If the days of explosive growth are over , then most likely they will do 3 million$ in net income this year. That is a multiple of 14x. Which still seems too low since explosive 50-60% growth is not priced in here for the most part. given that market penetration is in single digit % still of this product. It is interesting as well that using their software actually saves dealers money, because less film is wasted. If they don't use software then they have to cut off the edges, which increases cost for dealers. And apparantly their software is still industry leading. Also they promote their product much more heavily then competitors (which you c an clearly see given that xpel is by far the most mentioned on car forums). This creates loyalty among dealers as they buy into a product from a company that does a better job creating sales for them then other company's, the reciprocity effect. And supposedly their film is better then suntek's and sold with the longest warranty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowball82 Posted June 23, 2014 Author Share Posted June 23, 2014 Probably they will need a better listing to be on big guys radars. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm25 Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 Massive day today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yadayada Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 seems like the stock is pretty much fairly valued now? I sold out at 1.85 unfortunately :( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowball82 Posted August 23, 2014 Author Share Posted August 23, 2014 Again ! One of two things to learn in Intelligent investor book was to ignore market fluctuations :) Very bad thing to sell hight growth stock like this one, just my humble opinion. + 20 % today, now $ 2.20 and the company should report next week. Did you sell Biosyent ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LanceSanity Posted August 23, 2014 Share Posted August 23, 2014 Again ! One of two things to learn in Intelligent investor book was to ignore market fluctuations :) Very bad thing to sell hight growth stock like this one, just my humble opinion. + 20 % today, now $ 2.20 and the company should report next week. Did you sell Biosyent ? Haha, I sold Biosyent too early and it still haunts me. I'm holding tightly onto DAP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yadayada Posted August 23, 2014 Share Posted August 23, 2014 To do like 30% annually on this it needs to keep growing earnings like 50-60% a year for the next 3-4 years. Currently it trades at over 20-25x earnings. They probably do 2.3-2.5m$ in earnings this year. If they grow 55% for 3 years, that will be about 9 million$ in earnings in year 3. Giving that a 15x multiple and I get 135m$ market cap. That is 140%. Or 35% IRR. I guess not bad. Since I got other investments with a higher expectation I am gambling the price will stay steady for a while or drop at some point and then I get back in. If they still show the same growth and it gets to the 10-15x earnings area ill get back in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowball82 Posted August 23, 2014 Author Share Posted August 23, 2014 No problem Lance ! we aren't perfect ! I earn +160 x my initial investment over last decade and I did big mistakes. One was when I bought China botanic pharmaceutical. I try to forget (lol) but I still remember I paid around .70 and sold it at 0.20-.25. Last time I looked the stock price was .02. Fantastic financials numbers but so stupid investment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowball82 Posted August 28, 2014 Author Share Posted August 28, 2014 The company announces today 70% revenue growth and + 65% pre-tax net income ! XPEL has now distributors in 33 countries and growing very fast. I hope you bought some too. http://finance.yahoo.com/news/xpel-announces-second-quarter-2014-123000494.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LanceSanity Posted September 11, 2014 Share Posted September 11, 2014 The company announces today 70% revenue growth and + 65% pre-tax net income ! XPEL has now distributors in 33 countries and growing very fast. I hope you bought some too. http://finance.yahoo.com/news/xpel-announces-second-quarter-2014-123000494.html have you seen the stock price today? very nice! Seems like everything you've touched has turned to gold this year- RX, PKT, PTZ, DAP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowball82 Posted September 11, 2014 Author Share Posted September 11, 2014 Yes, dap is one of the best I own. I hope you made some money :) Working on the next one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
noxalley Posted September 11, 2014 Share Posted September 11, 2014 This company is a lesson learned for me. I was aware of this situation back in October 2013, but never bought for what was in retrospect unimportant reasons. A major mistake of omission... Congrats to everyone who was smarter than me and bought this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gary17 Posted September 11, 2014 Share Posted September 11, 2014 This could be one of the reasons the stock went up ? http://moatology.com/2014/09/11/xpel-technologies-ii-the-art-of-averaging-up/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yadayada Posted September 11, 2014 Share Posted September 11, 2014 it looks pretty expensive at almost 30x earnings. who says they will be able to grow at same %? they need people to train installers, and it is very important that is done right (otherwhise it will be bad quality and brand name is hurt). And it seems that is mostly their limit on growth so far. Lets say they grow earnings 50% a year for 4 years on average. Then growth slows down to maybe 20%. Now put a 20x multiple on about 12 million$. That is a 3 bagger in a pretty optimistic scenario. Or about 30-35% IRR in bull case. But with those assumptions and risk I want a 60-70% expected IRR, since 30-35% is not the risk adjusted return. One setback or economic crisis and you do not perform well? And what about competition in 5 years? that might put pressure on margins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gary17 Posted September 11, 2014 Share Posted September 11, 2014 yadayada you make an interesting point here & is something that i've been pondering on these growth vs value stocks. everything you just noted below could also happen to a 'value' stock like AIQ. except in the case of AIQ we have debt -- XPEL is debt-free. So in order for a value stock to realize its intrinsic value - some things need to happen... And in order for a growth stock to deserve the higher P/E ratio - the good things need to keep happening. The question then becomes which is more likely and how will they fair in a down market ? i don't have enough experience to comment ; but myself I don't see much difference between growth vs. value as long as there's a margin of safety in the investment thesis. PS. hopefully snowball touches BAC - would love to see that turn into gold too !! :D it looks pretty expensive at almost 30x earnings. who says they will be able to grow at same %? they need people to train installers, and it is very important that is done right (otherwhise it will be bad quality and brand name is hurt). And it seems that is mostly their limit on growth so far. Lets say they grow earnings 50% a year for 4 years on average. Then growth slows down to maybe 20%. Now put a 20x multiple on about 12 million$. That is a 3 bagger in a pretty optimistic scenario. Or about 30-35% IRR in bull case. But with those assumptions and risk I want a 60-70% expected IRR, since 30-35% is not the risk adjusted return. One setback or economic crisis and you do not perform well? And what about competition in 5 years? that might put pressure on margins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowball82 Posted September 28, 2014 Author Share Posted September 28, 2014 Close to 700 % return over last year or so and the company continue to growth/get attention. Great to see Jay Leno in a video about paint protection. The installer is a distributor for 3M products and Xpel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gary17 Posted September 28, 2014 Share Posted September 28, 2014 Close to 700 % return over last year or so and the company continue to growth/get attention. Great to see Jay Leno in a video about paint protection. The installer is a distributor for 3M products and Xpel. Thanks - be interesting to see their international growth & see if they go into other segments such as for trucks- the fleet industry may want to appreciate the glass protection and see if it makes sense :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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