Picasso Posted August 13, 2015 Share Posted August 13, 2015 If you want to see the impact of a forum on XPEL, look at the Tesla Motors Club. There are a lot of users getting Opti Coat on their Tesla's because of user stories. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gary17 Posted August 31, 2015 Share Posted August 31, 2015 Xpel announced Q2 results this morning showing continued growth, albeit much less than the 50% growth management had guided in Q1. The largest factor appears to be the forex - that with stronger currency it's impacting both the top and bottom lines. I suspect this will likely affect a number of businesses operating in the US as well I'd love to hear what investors of Xpel on this board makes of the results. TIA SAN ANTONIO, Texas--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- XPEL Technologies Corp. (TSXV: DAP.U), a leading supplier of automotive paint and headlamp protection films, announced results for the quarter and six months ended June 30, 2015. Mr. Ryan Pape, President and Chief Executive Officer of XPEL, commented, “We have seen continued momentum in the second quarter with solid growth and the completion of the integration of Parasol Canada, which we acquired in the first quarter.” For the Quarter Ended June 30, 2015: Revenue: Revenue in the second quarter of fiscal 2015 was $11.3 million, a 35% increase as compared to revenue of $8.3 million in the same prior year quarter and a 40% increase sequentially as compared to the first quarter. Gross Margin: Gross profit as a percentage of sales remained unchanged at 30%. Expenses: Selling, general and administrative expenses as a percentage of revenue was 21%, up slightly as compared to 18% in the second quarter of 2014 and a sequential decline as compared to 25% in the first quarter of 2015. Net Earnings: Net income for the fiscal 2015 second quarter was $605,653 or $0.02 per basic and diluted share based on 25,784,950 shares outstanding, compared with net income of $595,229, or $0.02 per basic and diluted share based on 25,784,950 shares outstanding, for the corresponding prior year period. For the Six Months Ended June 30, 2015: Revenue: Revenue in the first six months of fiscal 2015 was $19.4 million, a 42% increase as compared to revenue of $13.6 million in the same prior year period. Gross Margin: Gross profit as a percentage of revenue increased slightly to 32% from 31% in the same prior year period. Expenses: Selling, general and administrative expenses as a percentage of revenue was 23%, up from 19% in the same prior year period. Net Earnings: Net income for the first six months of fiscal 2015 was $1,277,861, or $0.05 per basic and diluted share based on 25,784,950 shares outstanding, compared with net income of $1,054,514, or $0.04 per basic and diluted share based on 25,784,950 shares outstanding, for the corresponding prior year period. Mr. Pape continued, “In addition to good growth in the U.S., our direct presence in Canada and Europe generated strong revenue growth in both regions, despite pressure from the U.S. Dollar. Elsewhere, the impact of foreign currency on our distributors and the reorganization of our distribution in China reduced growth in the quarter. Across our international subsidiaries, net income would have increased over $300,000 if the relevant exchange rates were at their prior year rates." “The continued expansion of our U.S. sales and marketing programs combined with the distribution changes in Canada and China position us well to continue our differentiated, premium offering as the business grows and we introduce additional products and services.” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
abitofvalue Posted September 1, 2015 Share Posted September 1, 2015 Thought results were good in a vacuum. 35% revenue growth is great - wish some of it had flowed to net income. the SG&A increase isn't ideal but seems to be a currency issue as manufacturing is in the US. might be an issue for a few qtrs here. Net income growth slowed and the rolling 4-qtr net income increased by <1% which is a concern. Date Net Income 4-qtr NI rolling growth 3/31/2013 $262.3 6/30/2013 $384.3 9/30/2013 $392.9 12/31/2013 $280.8 $1,320 3/31/2014 $459.3 $1,517 14.9% 6/30/2014 $595.2 $1,728 13.9% 9/30/2014 $473.3 $1,809 4.7% 12/31/2014 $415.1 $1,943 7.4% 3/31/2015 $672.2 $2,156 11.0% 6/30/2015 $605.7 $2,166 0.5% I think management is very promotional in how it communicates with investors - particularly guidance. Works well when you can meet it but if you miss aggressive guidance - you get your stock chopped down. Would think the 25% sell-off is a little much but will be interesting to see the stock reaction over the next week. Think investors might have to reevaluate growth expectations unless currency woes abate. They aren't really issuing shares nor are insiders selling so don't get why they come out with these 50% growth estimates. I mean underpromise and over-deliver isn't exactly hard when you are growing like they are. Management does a good job answering questions in detail on the call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gary17 Posted September 1, 2015 Share Posted September 1, 2015 Thanks yes i had thought the 50% growth guided was difficult to achieve before the announcement and had actually thought about currency as a risk... I think the CEO did respond to the questions well during the CC - he noted that what was not expected is that because of the increase in US $, international distributors are ordering less -- had that not been an effect, we would've seen the 50% growth they guided. So overall I gave them a 'pass' on this issue. Gary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Travis Wiedower Posted September 16, 2015 Share Posted September 16, 2015 Can one of you guys post your valuation for Xpel? The recent VIC write-up mentioned it was selling for 7.5x 2016 EPS which at the time implied a 2016 EPS of $0.42. I just can't get anywhere close to that number. Here's my back-of-envelope 2016 valuation: $55.4M revenue (assumes 35% YoY growth the next 6 quarters) $16.6M gross profit (30% gross margin) - $10M SG&A (18% of revenue so this assumes decent margin expansion from now) - $228k interest - $2.2M taxes (34% statutory tax rate) = $4.2M net income or $0.16/share This implies 15.6x 2016 EPS which may or may not be cheap for this company, I don't know. Just having a hard time getting to some of the numbers I see other guys valuing it at. Am I missing something or are you guys assuming a higher growth rate and/or more margin expansion? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gary17 Posted September 16, 2015 Share Posted September 16, 2015 Travis they earned 0.023 eps last quarter due to the strong USD which has had an impact on their bottom line. If we annualize this, it is 0.09 eps CEO has said 50% growth last quarter, but they ended up getting 35% growth because of the 15% currency headwind... they have no hedges... so if they grow another 35% we are at 0.09 x 1.35 = 0.12. at $2.5 / 0.12 = P/E = 21x 2016 eps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Travis Wiedower Posted September 16, 2015 Share Posted September 16, 2015 I don't think annualizing one quarter in a business that has seasonality is the best approach to valuation. Your method also incorporates the most recent forex effects into next year's results. I completely ignore forex in my numbers because it's impossible to predict and should even out in the long run. And your valuation of 21x 2016 EPS didn't exactly give me the warm and fuzzies either ;D I also came up with $0.07 for a "normalized" TTM EPS after adjusting for forex, asset sales and adjusting to standard tax rates every quarter. This is a current P/E ratio of 35. So are you guys buying/holding this stock thinking a TTM P/E of 35 and a forward P/E of 15-21 is justified or am I missing something? I'm not here to say you guys are wrong by the way. I've spent a lot of time researching this company and I love the business model. I just have a hard time matching up my valuations with some of the ones I've seen posted online (like the VIC write-up). I hope someone proves me wrong so I can be a buyer during this dip! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gary17 Posted September 16, 2015 Share Posted September 16, 2015 Trevor I think 21x is quite rich valuation , but considering Buffett was happy with 20x for Precision Castparts and had indicated previously that in a low rate enviroment, the market is not really overpriced right now - i am happy to hold. Two potential things could change in our favor: (a) forex - if the oil rebounds, US $ will likely weaken and would have a positive effect ; (b) XPEL raises price when it comes out with new products. Will paint protection film still be around in the next 10 to 15 years ? If so, then i'd say the valuation today is probably fairly 'cheap' given the potential . IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowball82 Posted September 17, 2015 Author Share Posted September 17, 2015 Can one of you guys post your valuation for Xpel? The recent VIC write-up mentioned it was selling for 7.5x 2016 EPS which at the time implied a 2016 EPS of $0.42. I just can't get anywhere close to that number. Here's my back-of-envelope 2016 valuation: $55.4M revenue (assumes 35% YoY growth the next 6 quarters) $16.6M gross profit (30% gross margin) - $10M SG&A (18% of revenue so this assumes decent margin expansion from now) - $228k interest - $2.2M taxes (34% statutory tax rate) = $4.2M net income or $0.16/share This implies 15.6x 2016 EPS which may or may not be cheap for this company, I don't know. Just having a hard time getting to some of the numbers I see other guys valuing it at. Am I missing something or are you guys assuming a higher growth rate and/or more margin expansion? Thanks. I think 15 x EPS is a very cheap valuation if you look the annual growth rate over last years and the moat of the company. IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
henrysalt Posted November 30, 2015 Share Posted November 30, 2015 Stock is getting hammered today following 3Q results. http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20151130005329/en/XPEL-Announces-Quarter-Results Were the expectations much higher? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matthewd98 Posted November 30, 2015 Share Posted November 30, 2015 I'm baffled by this morning's sell off. On a constant currency basis, revenue was up 35% and net income was up 44%. It seems investors are forgetting that forex should only negatively impact this year's results. Next year, if the USD remains at the same levels and assuming the business keeps growing at the same rate (which I don't see why it wouldn't given the introduction of two new products, the strong domestic growth, and the fact that they've only scratched the surface with international opportunities), we should see 40+% growth in net income. If the USD were actually to weaken even slightly, we could see 50-60+% growth rate in net income. Run-rate sales is now $40.4M and at the current $1.68 stock price, the market cap is a $43.3M. Essentially, the stock is trading a bit above 1x sales which is absurdly cheap. Here are my notes from the CC: - Growth breakdown by region: US growth consistent with Q2, China sales near parity with last year's quarter, sequential decline in Canada due to 6% sequential decline of the CAD and weak economy (however still significant increase in volume and sales YoY which is quite impressive), ROW growth was down in Q2 and Q3 2015 compared to Q3 and Q4 2014 (however it isn't negative). - High-profile opportunities, namely OEM (not at the factory level though) and customization shops, in the pipeline. XPEL is the one being contacted which is a testament to the effectiveness of their marketing strategy. - New website in Q4 will feature a brand new content management system that will allow installers to share videos and pictures of installations to further driver business and create awareness around the products. - Ryan expects a critical mass to be achieved for window tints early next year. The sales strategy is the same as the PPF film one. Historically XPEL has won lots of business by converting customers from inferior products, but the cycle can take some time. - Replaced all marketing materials for customers at the company's expense to help drive adoption. The cost was $50k. - The $250k increase in expenses from Q2 is partially due to the $50k marketing expense, $30k in new hires and the rest is divided among many other items -- no particular increase in one item. Expenses should remain stable going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Libs Posted November 30, 2015 Share Posted November 30, 2015 <Net Earnings: Net income for the fiscal 2015 third quarter was $398,082 or $0.02 per basic and diluted share based on 25,784,950 shares outstanding, compared with net income of $473,296, or $0.02 per basic and diluted share based on 25,784,950 shares outstanding, for the corresponding prior year period. On a constant currency basis net income increased 44% to $682,542> Net income down Y/Y in spite of all the revenue gains, the market doesn't like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Libs Posted November 30, 2015 Share Posted November 30, 2015 <Net Earnings: Net income for the fiscal 2015 third quarter was $398,082 or $0.02 per basic and diluted share based on 25,784,950 shares outstanding, compared with net income of $473,296, or $0.02 per basic and diluted share based on 25,784,950 shares outstanding, for the corresponding prior year period. On a constant currency basis net income increased 44% to $682,542> Net income down Y/Y in spite of all the revenue gains, the market doesn't like it. Sorry for the sloppy post. I meant to pose a question - how can currency fluctuations drive net income from $682,542 to $398,082? That's -41%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matthewd98 Posted November 30, 2015 Share Posted November 30, 2015 XPEL's revenue base is around 60% domestic (USA) and 40% international. Since XPEL reports in USD, and their COGS and expenses are in USD, any strengthening of the USD with respect to other currencies will negatively impact the margins of the international segment and consequently affect the blended margins of the business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowball82 Posted December 1, 2015 Author Share Posted December 1, 2015 General reaction about USD vs others currencies seems a bit exagerate. More important to see if they continue to do strategics investments to expand the international network and add new products. IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matthewd98 Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 General reaction about USD vs others currencies seems a bit exagerate. More important to see if they continue to do strategics investments to expand the international network and add new products. IMO Agreed. Even if the USD to rest-of-world (ROW) exchange rate persists for a few more years, XPEL ultimately will utilize its pricing power and raise prices. The company undeniably has pricing power. Someone from another forum explained why perfectly so I will just quote his post since it's so well formulated: Does Xpel have pricing power (ie. can they easily raise prices)? I've been pounding the table on this point ... and I think yes it does --without a doubt-- based on a several hints: Xpel customers spend a small percentage of their budget on Xpel Film: I've confirmed on 2 occasions that film cost is only ~15% to 20% of the total cost of goods for a PPF shops. The labor is the biggest component by far. This is meaningful information, because a 20% increase in Film cost would only require a 3% pass-through to the end-consumer to make the installer whole on absolute margins. Quite manageable. Their customers have profitable business models: we've done the math on how profitable an installation shop can be. Fat margins and booming business. Makes it easier for them to absorb input cost increases. The quality of the product is more important than price: quoting Eric Keller from Xpel: "The cost of film and the ease of installation are not related. The price you pay for film has a closer relationship to technology used to create/make the film, durability, and other things the company may do for you (marketing, working events to drive consumers to the dealer locator, paying for a rep to be in the field to help installers, sales training, etc). The coverage you described should equate to about 12 square feet of film. If you were to go with the cheapest film on the market you might save yourself a dollar per square foot over the more expensive films, saving you a $12 per car. What are you giving up for that $12? It depends on the film. It may be durability (which could effect your reputation). It could be whether or not you are listed on a dealer locator (which brings you business). It may be the the willingness or thriftiness in handling warranties (which will cost you a lot more than $12). There are only two ways to increase your margins, lower your cost, or increase your price. The most expensive cost in any ppf install is the labor. I think you will find that you can only shave a few dollars here and there with film cost, but that you can almost always make a real difference in efficiency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yours Truly Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 3M suing Xpel for patent infrigement... stock down on low volume Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATLValue Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 any thoughts on this? When do you expect the company to respond? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
abitofvalue Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 3M suing Xpel for patent infrigement... stock down on low volume Damn the stock tanked on this. Makes sense I guess. Hard for an individual investor to have any kind of insight into validity of these claims. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
racemize Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Do they list the patents? I'm a patent agent so I could give it a quick look if you wanted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowball82 Posted January 1, 2016 Author Share Posted January 1, 2016 Do they list the patents? I'm a patent agent so I could give it a quick look if you wanted. Hi racemize, You should find more info there : DISTRICT COURT FOR THE DISTRICT OF MINNESOTA, CASE 0:15-cv-04576-PJS-JSM, U.S. PATENT NO. 8,765,263 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matthewd98 Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 XPEL Technologies Corp. Vows to Vigorously Defend Patent Infringement Suit: http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20160107006326/en/XPEL-Technologies-Corp.-Vows-Vigorously-Defend-Patent XPEL denies the claims and intends to vigorously defend itself against any such claims. XPEL also questions the validity of the ‘263 Patent. “We are a market leader in Paint Protection Film, and it appears our rapid growth has made us a target. We will defend the suit and continue to bring our customers the best support, training and marketing in the industry. We plan to continue business as usual and there should not be any impact to our customers while this matter progresses,” said Ryan Pape, Chief Executive Officer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Travis Wiedower Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Same statement every company puts out when they get sued. From a high level it appears they are in deed infringing and showing the patent as invalid is their best chance to win. I plan on reaching out to a patent attorney soon for their opinion though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KJP Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 From a high level it appears they are in deed infringing and showing the patent as invalid is their best chance to win. What makes you think that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
abitofvalue Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 You asked Travis not me but I agree that it looks like xpel is infringing since they pretty much imply as much. If you aren't infringing you say - "we spent millions of dollars on R&d developing a novel solution and our product does not infringe." Saying we question the validity of the patent, to me, implies that yes we are infringing but there is nothing special here so why the hell was this patent granted. Now that doesn't mean they will loose or their odds are bad - patents get thrown out as invalid by the courts on a not infrequent basis (as I understand it) so it may well be a valid defense but its not we aren't infringing. More interesting question is what the end game is if patent is found to be valid. Would guess its an agreement to pay a reasonable royalty.. Courts don't like putting companies out of business if they can avoid it and xplt should have an argument to avoid a lost profits judgement by pointing to its own software patents, marketing efforts, training programs etc. All in all i got to say I completely missed the possibility of a patent issue here. I could come up with scenarios where they struggle and its a bad investment but didn't think of this one. Oh well the joys of investing in microcap land. live and learn I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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