babysamalot Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 thanks for the kind words. I still have to talk to management first before fine tuning my 2016 forecast, but my expectation is still as I saw it before. I would still expect slight profitability in Q1 and Q2, a return to FCF positive during Q2 with beginning to pay down debt then, and just monster quarters in Q3 and Q4. As long as the market (and "analysts") continue to be unbelievers, the company will beat estimates handily.....which is my preferred situation. To me, Q4 results confirmed the following: 1) Lower ultimate debt balance needed 2) FCF positive and debt repayment to start in Q2 3) Laser focus on showing sustained profitability 4) successful IT Platform implementation allowing them to ramp business rapidly and effectively I would expect another nice eps estimate beat for Q1'16 (earnings released in early May); after that, "analysts" will have to raise their EBITDA estimates and join the believers club....better late than never, I always say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bargainhunter Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Thankyou again Omar. The nice thing about the analysts being a couple of quarters behind reality is we get more time to accumulate at what should be very attractive prices looking back 12-18 months from now :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmnouri Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Turns out the last 8K was in fact a tell tell.... With SRT margins improving, we should see sustainable profitability quarter over quarter. I am surprised the stock is still at current levels given the outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dhsieg Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Omar, I know you are in process of tweaking your numbers for 2016 and still need to talk with management. But with 82 million in revenue in quarter 4, a seasonally strong quarter. Do you think its realistic that Startek can do 84 million in revenue in first quarter 2016? Chad did seem to indicate that some temporary contracts were ending and quarter one and two were generally the weakest of the year? Not trying to challenge you but did notice that was your projection in your last report. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
babysamalot Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 yeah I'm still in that process so I will answer with more conviction once I'm done. But yes, some seasonal programs do end before Q1 ends....however, they have shown Q1 revenue almost unchanged from Q4 in the past. It all depends if new NON-SEASONAL business was also ramped during Q4 as well; which I think may be the case. And they did beat my Q4 revenue forecast by $4m, so if it came at the expense of $2 to $4 million from Q1, we are still in the ballpark. regardless, we should still see healthy EBITDA levels as they continue to cut costs (lowering their break-even point) as the Accent acquisition delivers their full profitability expectation during Q1. the market is giving us a great window to continue to accumulate shares, in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
babysamalot Posted March 26, 2016 Share Posted March 26, 2016 please find report attached. I would seriously consider the current price as a great window to load up after the great quarter released and what is expected going forward.StarTeK_AnalysisReport_Q4Dec2015_March2016.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dhsieg Posted March 27, 2016 Share Posted March 27, 2016 Nice job on the comprehensive report. I appreciate your insight. I will post some questions for you after I review it in again in more detail. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dhsieg Posted March 27, 2016 Share Posted March 27, 2016 Omar, I agree the client engagement model seems to be working. The Accent business seems to have stabilized and diversified Startek's revenue stream. I noticed the reduction of 150 domestic seats from 3rd quarter 2015 to 4th quarter 2015 was the closure of Kansas City facility, correct? I noticed in your report you anticipate 600 less seats available offshore from 1st quarter 2016 to 4th quarter 2016? Is there going to be another site closure? I know Chad has mentioned on the call recently the possibility of "taking out pockets of capacity" is that what he is referring to? Also, when comparing your last report Dec 2015 with this current report March 2016, I noticed a reduction in revenue forecast for the 4 quarters in 2016. Is that an indication of lost contracts or weakness or just a tweaking of the numbers? Honestly, I prefer to see expectations lowered and then an earnings beat than the other way around. I am pleased to see that we have the possibility of 3 of the next 4 quarters being profitable. We haven't had 2 profitable quarters in a row for at least 5 years that I know of. These questions aren't meant to be challenging... just trying to better understand what I own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
babysamalot Posted March 27, 2016 Share Posted March 27, 2016 All good questions. Yes, the seat reduction from last Q was the KC closure. The 600 seat reduction later in the year is them trying to optimize their footprint in the Philippines....meaning they are trying to sublease some of the space ("taking out pockets of capacity") to increase utilization rates and margins. The 600 number is an estimate since I don't know exactly how many will be offloaded. No site closures are planned so far. This is a key step to improve Offshore margins to normalized levels and reach the targeted 10% EBITDA margin. The lower revenue estimate for 2016 is me tweaking and trying to be more conservative; I want to be close in forecasting their results but I prefer they beat my numbers. The last time they had back to back quarters with EPS gains was in 2009....I think there is a high probability we will see another gain in Q1 reconfirming and strengthening the view that this turnaround is complete and growth in both revenue and earnings have resumed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dhsieg Posted April 24, 2016 Share Posted April 24, 2016 Omar I was rereading your analysis report I have two questions. 1. Lets assume startek manages to achieve $334 million in revenue for 2016. Stripping out the Accent revenue, that a 6% organic growth rate from 2014. That's below the 10% Chad was looking for. Do you anticipate revenue growth % to increase going forward into 2017? 2. With the new IT upgrades completed in 2nd quarter 2015, how do we really know if the cost to ramp up programs and the speed to set up a new client has come down? I see ramping expenses every quarter and not sure if they have indeed been reduced. Thanks in advance for the input Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
babysamalot Posted April 25, 2016 Share Posted April 25, 2016 1) Mr. Carlson (CEO) guided to double digit revenue growth from FYE2015 levels. He did not strip out Accent related revenue to qualify that growth expectation. So, in my analysis, I estimate an 18% revenue growth in 2016 over 2015. In trying to explain the probability of achieving that growth rate, I pointed out that Accent revenue alone over 2014 levels represent 12% growth; so I'm only really assuming a 6% to 7% organic growth from the revenue level reached in 2014. Maybe that wasn't clear in my write-up. $334m - $67m (Accent) = $267m which is 6.8% growth over the $250m achieved in 2014. $250m + $67m (Accent) = $317m which is 12% growth over the $282m achieved in 2015. So what I'm saying is: take 2014 as a base, subtract/add business lost/won during 2015, plus/minus any business won/lost during 2016....I assume the results of that is only about a 6% to 7% growth....then we add the revenue acquired with Accent. hopefully I'm not making this more confusing than it needs to be. For 2017, I do believe they can achieve double digit revenue growth as well, but I prefer to err on the side of caution to demonstrate that even with a single digit growth rate, the current stock price is grossly undervaluing the Company. 2) We immediately saw the effect in a much lower SG&A expense level as the cost of implementation has been eliminated. The faster speed to ramp with lower cost will show itself with a higher, more stable gross margin base (ramping expense will have a lower impact) and revenue from new business wins announced will show up within 1 to 2 quarters. Now, if they are doing their job and growing, we should always see some growth investment expenses...however, their impact on the results will be much less noticeable than before given their scale and cost structure now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dhsieg Posted April 25, 2016 Share Posted April 25, 2016 Okay, now I understand. I probably should have read slower, it would have made more sense. Thanks for the clarification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
babysamalot Posted May 28, 2016 Share Posted May 28, 2016 Startek's progress has gone unnoticed. One street analyst more than tripled his 2016 estimates, the other more than doubled them....yet both analysts left their ratings and price targets unchanged. Inexplicable. It is only a matter of time before the story gets discovered. Analysis summary attached. Full report can be downloaded here: omarsamalotanalysis.comStarTeK_AnalysisSummary_2016Q1_May2016.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
babysamalot Posted August 17, 2016 Share Posted August 17, 2016 In case anyone is still interested, Q2'16 analysis summary attached. Full report can be downloaded here: omarsamalotanalysis.com I expect big numbers for Q3 onwards with announcements of huge business wins.StarTeK_ExecutiveSummary_Q2June2016.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dhsieg Posted August 17, 2016 Share Posted August 17, 2016 Thanks omar for the thorough report. Any results even close to your projections should bring a higher stock price. I'm glad they cut some excess seats offshore and continue to pay down debt. I agree the conference call seemed to be the most positive they have ever been during the last 5 years. Going into a seasonally strong time of year, I hope to see strong results going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmnouri Posted August 18, 2016 Share Posted August 18, 2016 Thanks for the report Omar. This name has been on my radar for some time now and it's pretty clear that you know this company pretty well and always get a lot closer with your estimates than the two analysts that follow the stock. Baird seems to get it a bit better but doesn't upgrade the stock. Lake Street's work is outright embarrassing. Have you found management to be open to talk to potential investors? Would it be ok to call/email you for more detail? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
babysamalot Posted August 18, 2016 Share Posted August 18, 2016 thanks for that. I believe once Q3 is out and knowing Q4 is the highest volume/profitability quarter and Q1 can be the second highest, Baird will have no choice but to upgrade the stock. I have to agree with you on Lake Street....if these analysts are not spoon fed with guidance, they are totally lost as they have no motivation to put in the work. I have found management to be very accessible to potential investors. And, for those of you on the west coast, StarTek will participate in the Liolios investor conference on Sept 7 and 8 at the Four Seasons in San Francisco....bombard them with questions! I will be glad to answer calls/emails. thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmnouri Posted October 10, 2016 Share Posted October 10, 2016 Seems startek landed quite a big client, see attached. Once the market gets a whiff of this we are off to the races. Hiring throughout all of their facilities is massive, seems new business wins for Q3 will be huge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dhsieg Posted October 10, 2016 Share Posted October 10, 2016 I agree, I just noticed an announcement earlier in the month hiring 300 in myrtle beach by end of year, as well as a new client launch in Colorado Springs. I expect new business wins announced for 3rd quarter to be close to 20 million. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
babysamalot Posted October 16, 2016 Share Posted October 16, 2016 oh yeah, they are cooking on gas. I think we will be extremely pleased with new business wins and new client wins during Q3. More recent announcements below: http://www.startek.com/news/startek-inc.-recruiting-to-fill-420-jobs-in-colorado-springs http://www.startek.com/news/startek-inc.-recruiting-to-fill-70-full-time-jobs-in-jeffersonville http://www.startek.com/news/startek-inc.-recruiting-to-fill-200-jobs-in-greeley-colorado they are filling up capacity fairly quickly in both the US and the Philippines including healthcare, retail, and e-commerce business. I strongly believe sustainable profitability is upon us. With their strongest quarters about to be released, I will be very surprised if we haven't hit $10/share soon after Q4 is out in mid February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLS Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 Anyone know why they are almost down 10% today? I can't find any news. Edit: must have just been normal small cap stock swing. Still down a bit now but nothing alarming like 10%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
babysamalot Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 Analysis summary attached. Please view full report here: http://omarsamalotanalysis.com/reports.html. StarTeK_AnalysisSummaryt_Q3Sep2016_Dec2016.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
babysamalot Posted March 24, 2017 Share Posted March 24, 2017 Time to reload on SRT shares. Analysis summary attached. Please view full report here: http://omarsamalotanalysis.com/reports.html.STARTEK_AnalysisSummary_Q4Dec2016_March2017.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
babysamalot Posted June 7, 2017 Share Posted June 7, 2017 I told you so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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