no_free_lunch Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 The price targets are encouraging but it would be nice to know what is behind that. Does anyone have any 2019 or 2020 free cash flow forecasts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flesh Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Just listened to the 16 minute jpm presentation however the q and a wasn't part of the recording. Anyone know where to find the q and a portion written or otherwise? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluffy Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Just listened to the 16 minute jpm presentation however the q and a wasn't part of the recording. Anyone know where to find the q and a portion written or otherwise? Had the same problem. Go in their again and look right over the presentation. There should be a tab next to "presentation" labeled with "Q&A". Otherwise: https://jpmorgan.metameetings.net/events/healthcare18/sessions/13926-davita-inc-q-a/webcast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrB Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Just listened to the 16 minute jpm presentation however the q and a wasn't part of the recording. Anyone know where to find the q and a portion written or otherwise? Had the same problem. Go in their again and look right over the presentation. There should be a tab next to "presentation" labeled with "Q&A". Otherwise: https://jpmorgan.metameetings.net/events/healthcare18/sessions/13926-davita-inc-q-a/webcast Presentation (only) http://investors.davita.com/static-files/915e0798-b9c0-44c9-b3a4-02bfead9a001 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValueMaven Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 This is a very interesting deck...prob explains why DVA has been on fire recently. If Thiry is able to pull this off, we are looking at a stock thats going to go much higher...I still think Berkshire might acquire this (regardless of the standstill letter that was signed 5yrs ago) Sincerely, VM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DooDiligence Posted January 20, 2018 Share Posted January 20, 2018 http://pressreleases.davita.com/2018-01-11-DaVita-Physician-Solutions-Makes-Its-First-Big-Investment-in-New-Technology-from-Epic Is this a part of DMG? I hope not (or at the least, that some kind of partnership would continue.) Just seems like a treasure trove of data for Davita. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrB Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 Jim has a new stooge 8) https://seekingalpha.com/article/4139719-davita-healthcare-partners-overvalued-facing-significant-headwinds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DooDiligence Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 Jim has a new stooge 8) https://seekingalpha.com/article/4139719-davita-healthcare-partners-overvalued-facing-significant-headwinds Ha, I saw that in my Twitter feed & thought he was a shill but I want to avoid confirmation bias so... --- On another note; I spotted a shiny, brand new, Fresenius in town the other day (almost ready to open up.) Is Fresenius' 5% +/- higher GM's (from a quick look at MStar numbers) a result of their being more vertically integrated? Seems like this would be a priority for DVA given the pricing environment. Baxter has spun out some winners in the past (I own one) & owning their dialysis biz should make DVA even more attractive? (I know this is just noodling & most of you are presenting JUST facts but...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sleepydragon Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 Jim has a new stooge 8) https://seekingalpha.com/article/4139719-davita-healthcare-partners-overvalued-facing-significant-headwinds Jim give classes at some MBA schools and ask students to do write ups on short ideas. I will not be surprised if this is from one of his “graduates” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
walkie518 Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 The short argument can only have short-term implications. If dialysis is no longer profitable, dialysis centers will close and people will move closer to where there is a profitable center or make long commutes 2-3x a week. A politician who doesn't fight to increase medicare reimbursement for dialysis will be killing sick people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrB Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 Can anyone get hold of this report please? Government Report Reveals Dialysis Industry Improves Patient Care https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/government-report-reveals-dialysis-industry-improves-patient-care-300593123.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LightWhale Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 Can anyone get hold of this report please? Government Report Reveals Dialysis Industry Improves Patient Care https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/government-report-reveals-dialysis-industry-improves-patient-care-300593123.html https://data.medicare.gov/data/dialysis-facility-compare Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrB Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 Great! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cigarbutt Posted February 11, 2018 Share Posted February 11, 2018 "Can anyone get hold of this report please? Government Report Reveals Dialysis Industry Improves Patient Care https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/government-report-reveals-dialysis-industry-improves-patient-care-300593123.html" I think that certain reports have circulation limited to providers and internal use and not to the general public (or the retail investor:)). A nice complementary article: http://cjasn.asnjournals.org/content/early/2017/12/19/CJN.11231017.full#F1 Slowly but surely moving in the direction of evidence-based conditional funding/payments. Reference 10 of the article is also interesting. https://www.healthaffairs.org/do/10.1377/hblog20161228.058133/full/ A lot of work to be done, but potential ways to include true measures of patient satisfaction and coming to grips with the transparency paradox. Maybe patients will read rating surveys and reliable review sites (just like what you do before you go to a restaurant, hotel etc) before making a healthcare choice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValueMaven Posted February 11, 2018 Share Posted February 11, 2018 I own a ton of DVA...It's a pure-play at this point...I really like what is going on here too...plus we have a huge FCF Yield and aggressive buyback, with great broader trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
walkie518 Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 Submission of Amendment to the Fair Pricing Dialysis Act (attached) 17-0014_Dialysis_Clinic_Pricing_0.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrB Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 Submission of Amendment to the Fair Pricing Dialysis Act (attached) Interesting that they make no mention of the fact that private dialysis companies make no money on their Medicare/Aid patients. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flesh Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 If I read it correctly, it looks like they would be allowed to make a 15% margin before interest, taxes, and headquarters. If that's right, presumably, some facilities would be making substantially less and some substantially more. On the whole, it would be a bad thing. Unless they built a bunch of facilities that weren't being used to grow . However, if a facility is underperorming/losing money and assuming cms is close to break even... is commercial really going to allow them to be charged more than the going rate in these cases? Hard to imagine. If they don't allow that, than many current and future facilities would be closed/not built.... causing a serious proximity problem for patients. There's really no point in building some out that may take years to eek out a profit... or keep one open. Anyways, I should read it again... just breezed through it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
walkie518 Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 Submission of Amendment to the Fair Pricing Dialysis Act (attached) Interesting that they make no mention of the fact that private dialysis companies make no money on their Medicare/Aid patients. "The Act is intended to be budget neutral for the State to implement and administer." Perhaps this statement is true to the extent that if this legislative non-sense were enacted there would be no consequences. It's obvious that the sole beneficiary would be the carrier. What's missing is that a carrier's job is to insure risk. This isn't Federally-subsidized flood insurance. Carriers should increase premiums to cover the difference and deal with the consequences. Wait... they already have increased premiums after ACA. Now carriers want to reduce reimbursement AND increase premiums again? Sure, DaVita is for profit, but DaVita has a positive impact on the health care system as a whole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DooDiligence Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 Thiry & Ackerman discuss possible uses for cash from the sale of DMG (kind of...) https://www.bizjournals.com/denver/news/2018/02/13/davita-officials-expound-on-potential-acquistions.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flesh Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 If I read it correctly, it looks like they would be allowed to make a 15% margin before interest, taxes, and headquarters. If that's right, presumably, some facilities would be making substantially less and some substantially more. On the whole, it would be a bad thing. Unless they built a bunch of facilities that weren't being used to grow . However, if a facility is underperorming/losing money and assuming cms is close to break even... is commercial really going to allow them to be charged more than the going rate in these cases? Hard to imagine. If they don't allow that, than many current and future facilities would be closed/not built.... causing a serious proximity problem for patients. There's really no point in building some out that may take years to eek out a profit... or keep one open. Anyways, I should read it again... just breezed through it. I've said before, at some point, what's to stop any dialysis co from simply raising their costs considering the cost plus nature of this proposed legislation? They couldn't do it quickly, but they could come in high and raise costs slowly, deliberately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 If I read it correctly, it looks like they would be allowed to make a 15% margin before interest, taxes, and headquarters. If that's right, presumably, some facilities would be making substantially less and some substantially more. On the whole, it would be a bad thing. Unless they built a bunch of facilities that weren't being used to grow . However, if a facility is underperorming/losing money and assuming cms is close to break even... is commercial really going to allow them to be charged more than the going rate in these cases? Hard to imagine. If they don't allow that, than many current and future facilities would be closed/not built.... causing a serious proximity problem for patients. There's really no point in building some out that may take years to eek out a profit... or keep one open. Anyways, I should read it again... just breezed through it. I've said before, at some point, what's to stop any dialysis co from simply raising their costs considering the cost plus nature of this proposed legislation? They couldn't do it quickly, but they could come in high and raise costs slowly, deliberately. They would need to collude with each other and the many smaller competitors to make this work. This work ifnthetr is essentially only Fresenius and DaVita left. There is a point however to this argument, if you are the lowest cost provider, there is no point in lowering the cost even more, if the government truly runs this as a cost plus business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cigarbutt Posted February 22, 2018 Share Posted February 22, 2018 Trying to run various long term scenarios in terms of potential cost containment pressures. Demand for dialysis will rise ++ (demographics, higher incidence of risk factors, probable absence of a suitable substitute) but the exposure to Medicare or equivalent is likely to remain high. https://spectator.org/healthcare-spending-to-reach-5-7-trillion-by-2026/ https://www.cms.gov/Research-Statistics-Data-and-Systems/Statistics-Trends-and-Reports/NationalHealthExpendData/Downloads/ForecastSummary.pdf Something has to give. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
walkie518 Posted February 22, 2018 Share Posted February 22, 2018 DaVita saves money for the system and closing locations could have a disastrous impact if too many patients are not on commercial plans. What happens if patients start going to hospitals for care? Certainly, neither the carriers, government, or even hospitals would want this to happen, especially if the patient is in the initial window of ineligibility and otherwise does not have coverage. Commercial plans can and might get even more expensive to compensate, but current Medicare/aid reimbursement for ESRD patients is poor. It doesn't sound like the Trump administration wants to put more into healthcare? At some point, something will give, but it's likely it hits the fan if Fresenius and DaVita start to close locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
walkie518 Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 http://www.healthcarefinancenews.com/news/cms-gives-bigger-increase-medicare-advantage-payment-rates-2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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