0184.HK - Keck Seng Investments

[Laxputs]

Great posts, guys. With Phase 1 of the light-rail opening in Dec'19, it coincides with virus awareness in that part of the world. Could be they knew sales were not going to do well. We could be looking at several years now until those sales start and with troubled revenues from lower hotel customers along the way.

[manuelbean]

The major catalyst here is the sale of the Macau apartments, which has felt like waiting for Godot.  The first mention of selling these came in the 2013 annual (filed april '13):

"Further, with the estimated completion of the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macau Bridge in 2016/2017, significant improvement in access to Macau from China via high-speed trains, and general improvement in infrastructure in Macau itself with the construction of the light rail trains, property values in general are expected to hold steady and increase in line with economic growth. ... Against this background, and with an objective to enhance shareholders’ value, the Group has decided to continue its policy of adopting a flexible approach towards pricing and marketing of its properties held for sale in Macau."

 

The HKZM Bridge finally opened around year-end 2018.  But in Sept'19 the 2019 Interim Report (filed Sept'19) they said they were deferring any sales "to a later time in order to capture the benefits to be accrued with the opening of the HKZM Bridge and the anticipated opening of the Macau light-rail transit system later this year."

 

Phase 1 of the light-rail opened in Dec'19.  But in the 2019 annual they said they were deferring any sales "to a later time in order to capture the benefits to be accrued with the opening of the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macau Bridge and the newly opened Macau light-rail transit system in December 2019"

 

I imagine we'll need to wait for COVID19 to pass, and that's fine.  But afterwards, are they really going to begin sales, or will we later learn they're waiting for more light-rail to be built (or some other delay)?  So far, only the blue line from Taipa Ferry Terminal to Ocean is in operation.  The connection from Ocean to Barra on the Macau Peninsula is slated to be finished in 2022/23.  The light green and yellow lines connecting Seac Pai Van to Lotus Bridge on the mainland has begun construction and that's all we know so far. 

 

https://www.travelchinaguide.com/images/map/macau/light-rail.jpg

 

Has anyone been in contact with mgmt recently?

 

I'm not sure anyone has ever talked to the management. Marcelo Lima from Heller House told me he sold his stake (he was one of the first to get in) because he got tired of waiting for a reply from the management.