RX - Biosyent

[snowball82]

i am thinking more of the company as a platform or channel - hospital division, women's health etc. If they can develop these platforms or channels well (they are still in process, so i guess jury is out on it), then each product is not as critical. It then becomes vehicle for sourcing and selling new products through this pipe.

 

i guess in my mind, if i look at this company as a seller of feramax, then it is overvalued and risky. If they can make this transition to building all these channel as other companies have done, then its a different matter

 

I can't agree more, this is what I was hoping few years ago when I bought my first share and added after that (I still own a large position). Now with 9 products the company is less risky and they have the network and funds to add new products. The experienced management team worked with Proter and G and Colgate and are experts to structure platforms/supply chain/marketing strategy. Investors are seeing this and big pharmas should also see the track record when they have to decide the company to work with.

 

The position for Biosyent is now unique for a less than $100 M market cap. They have a network with 8000 pharmacy in Canada and more than 220 hospitals + access to 9 countries/markets. IMO

 

[gary17]

i am thinking more of the company as a platform or channel - hospital division, women's health etc. If they can develop these platforms or channels well (they are still in process, so i guess jury is out on it), then each product is not as critical. It then becomes vehicle for sourcing and selling new products through this pipe.

 

i guess in my mind, if i look at this company as a seller of feramax, then it is overvalued and risky. If they can make this transition to building all these channel as other companies have done, then its a different matter

 

Sees candy only sells chocolate ! we got to remember the future potentials even as a one product company.  if their international sales could be as good as Canada then I don't think it is as risky as investors think.    keep in mind this is not a prescription product. consumers are willing to pay for this and they have been raising prices too. this is very telling of the brand /pricing power

[snowball82]

i am thinking more of the company as a platform or channel - hospital division, women's health etc. If they can develop these platforms or channels well (they are still in process, so i guess jury is out on it), then each product is not as critical. It then becomes vehicle for sourcing and selling new products through this pipe.

 

i guess in my mind, if i look at this company as a seller of feramax, then it is overvalued and risky. If they can make this transition to building all these channel as other companies have done, then its a different matter

 

Sees candy only sells chocolate ! we got to remember the future potentials even as a one product company.  if their international sales could be as good as Canada then I don't think it is as risky as investors think.    keep in mind this is not a prescription product. consumers are willing to pay for this and they have been raising prices too. this is very telling of the brand /pricing power

 

Good points,

 

More diversification is preferable ?

 

Maybe Biosyent should also start to sell some cosmetics and Sees candy chocolate in 8 000 Pharmacy accross Canada  :)

 

Some facts we know about the company's ability to market products :

 

Feramax is sold behind the counter, the price is higher than competitors. They continue to gain market shares.

 

Repagyn is growing 12 % month after month despite the hormone therapy is well establish (this market is larger than iron supplement in Canada).

 

Cathegel is sold in more than 45 countries (not by Biosyent) and grew by more than 40 % over last quarter in Canada.

 

Huge international growth.

 

Judging risk is more than say ho my god they sell alot of Feramax, the product is the leader in this category, gaining market share but... what if ?

 

Maybe they are good to put new products in niched markets

 

My two cents. Time will tell.

 

 

 

 

 

[snowball82]

Good news today. Biosyent announce the launch of Cysview !

 

https://docs.google.com/viewer?a=v&pid=sites&srcid=ZGVmYXVsdGRvbWFpbnxiaW9zeWVudHxneDoxYmNjZDBmNjFkYTg4YjE4

 

http://www.biosyent.com/rx/products_cysview/index.html#.Vkvs7vkvfIU

 

 

 

 

[snowball82]

i am thinking more of the company as a platform or channel - hospital division, women's health etc. If they can develop these platforms or channels well (they are still in process, so i guess jury is out on it), then each product is not as critical. It then becomes vehicle for sourcing and selling new products through this pipe.

 

i guess in my mind, if i look at this company as a seller of feramax, then it is overvalued and risky. If they can make this transition to building all these channel as other companies have done, then its a different matter

 

Sees candy only sells chocolate ! we got to remember the future potentials even as a one product company.  if their international sales could be as good as Canada then I don't think it is as risky as investors think.    keep in mind this is not a prescription product. consumers are willing to pay for this and they have been raising prices too. this is very telling of the brand /pricing power

 

Gary,

 

Unfortunately, iron deficiency still "the most widespread nutritional deficiency in the world". The World Health Organization estimates that 2 billion people (over 30% of the world’s population) are anemic, most of which due to iron deficiency.

 

World Health Organization on micronutrient deficiency :

 

http://www.who.int/nutrition/topics/ida/en/

 

Feramax is the leader brand in Canada for Iron deficiency but we don't know if they get good results in 9 others countries so far.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[snowball82]

I might take some flack for this, but I have actually soured a little on Biosyent over the last year or so. A few reasons:

 

-Poor disclosure. No one has any idea how much each product contributes, impossible to know the product concentration or sales opportunity for the products. Getting a Cysview peak sales estimate this quarter was a start in the right direction, but not nearly enough transparency.

-Inconsistent(and low) growth over the last 5 quarters.

-Misleading press releases when the numbers don't look good. Anyone read the Q2 release? The Q2 numbers were weak so Rene only wrote about the 1H numbers. The Q2 EPS was not mentioned anywhere in the release. Q2 sales were only in the table, not mentioned in the text like every other quarter (and every other company).

-Valuation isn't compelling. Annualizing Q3, you've got $0.32 of EPS, on a stock price of $7 (or $6.50 ex cash). 20-22x EPS. Other growing specialty pharma companies are currently trading at 10x EPS or less, so there is significant downside potential. Even if Biosyent doubles earnings, its possible the multiple contracts closer to the peer group and your stock return is minimal.

 

Of course if the business really can continue to grow earnings at 30% for the next 5 years, everything will work out fine, but its a bit blind faith in Rene. He hasn't put the cash to work very quickly, only doing tiny deals that take years to ramp up. What if Feramax stops growing? even if the other tiny products keep growing it will halt earnings growth in a hurry. Rene has had some good success the last couple years, but remember this guy ran the old dog of a business nearly into the ground for 10+ years.

 

I've been a holder for 2+ years, so I am willing to be patient and wait, but I am putting Rene on a shorter leash, especially with more established companies with better disclosures and more reliable growth trading at half the valuation of Biosyent.

 

 

Q1 2014: 0.04

Q2 2014: 0.06

Q3 2014: 0.07

 

It looked like we were going at a great pace, and Rene would have had you believed that what going to continue for the foreseeable future because all products were in the "product launch/rapid growth" buckets. But clearly that didn't happen:

 

Q4 2014: 0.05

Q1 2015: 0.07

Q2 2015: 0.06

Q3 2015: 0.08

 

It was essentially a lost year, we are only now back to the 7-8 cents per Q run rate. I don't feel like Rene gave enough explanation of the hiccups. Just 'a big order got delayed from Q2 to Q3'. If that were the case, and the order was worth 0.01 of EPS, that would mean we just posted three straight quarters of 0.07. Not exactly the compelling growth we were promised.

 

Drokos,

 

Maybe you could appreciate this info about futur growth for Feramax (MENA market is a huge market) :

 

Biosyent launched Feramax powder / Feramax 150 in Kuwait and UAE last March / April.

 

Risopharma.ae

(see section news and updates)

 

"Riso Pharma successfully launched Biosyent products in UAE, Kuwait and now preparing to lunch them in Lebanon by end of 2015.  Dated 20, July , 2015."

 

Thanks for your negative points about Biosyent investment idea. Together we learn better !

 

Hoping to learn more during Rene Goehrum's presentation next Thursday.

 

BIOSYENT TO PRESENT AT THE LD MICRO MAIN EVENT 2015 INVESTOR

CONFERENCE

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE NOVEMBER 30, 2015

TORONTO, ONTARIO (November 30, 2015) BioSyent Inc. (“BioSyent”, TSX Venture: RX) is pleased to announce that CEO René Goehrum will be making a presentation at the LD Micro Main Event 2015 Investor Conference at 9am (PT) on December 3, 2015 at the Luxe Sunset Boulevard Hotel in Los Angeles, CA. Mr. Goehrum will provide an overview of the Company and its corporate activities.

The presentation will be webcast live at the following conference link: http://wsw.com/webcast/ldmicro9/bioyf. A replay

of the webcast will be available for 365 days after the presentation date at the noted conference link or may be

accessed by visiting the Investor Centre at the company’s website, www.biosyent.com.

 

 

 

[snowball82]

The company wants to hire 4 new employees including a marketing manager for the hospital division.

 

http://www.biosyent.com/rx/careers/#.Vmx6rvnhDIV

 

Too soon to compare Biosyent as the next Paladin Lab but if they sign two-three new agreements like Cysview ... some will START to think about it.

 

[snowball82]

I don't think any of the names you mentioned have 28% organic growth with 40% ROE. Those are the kind of numbers get priced with a lot of hope. But this is basically a one product company. Very high risk.

 

@KClarkin

 

You should like this new website about Cysview.

 

http://www.cysview.ca/about.php

 

Like you know, Bladder Cancer Canada said "Bladder cancer is the most expensive cancer to treat on a per patient basis because of an 80 percent recurrence rate."

 

[snowball82]

I might take some flack for this, but I have actually soured a little on Biosyent over the last year or so. A few reasons:

 

-Poor disclosure. No one has any idea how much each product contributes, impossible to know the product concentration or sales opportunity for the products. Getting a Cysview peak sales estimate this quarter was a start in the right direction, but not nearly enough transparency.

-Inconsistent(and low) growth over the last 5 quarters.

-Misleading press releases when the numbers don't look good. Anyone read the Q2 release? The Q2 numbers were weak so Rene only wrote about the 1H numbers. The Q2 EPS was not mentioned anywhere in the release. Q2 sales were only in the table, not mentioned in the text like every other quarter (and every other company).

-Valuation isn't compelling. Annualizing Q3, you've got $0.32 of EPS, on a stock price of $7 (or $6.50 ex cash). 20-22x EPS. Other growing specialty pharma companies are currently trading at 10x EPS or less, so there is significant downside potential. Even if Biosyent doubles earnings, its possible the multiple contracts closer to the peer group and your stock return is minimal.

 

Of course if the business really can continue to grow earnings at 30% for the next 5 years, everything will work out fine, but its a bit blind faith in Rene. He hasn't put the cash to work very quickly, only doing tiny deals that take years to ramp up. What if Feramax stops growing? even if the other tiny products keep growing it will halt earnings growth in a hurry. Rene has had some good success the last couple years, but remember this guy ran the old dog of a business nearly into the ground for 10+ years.

 

I've been a holder for 2+ years, so I am willing to be patient and wait, but I am putting Rene on a shorter leash, especially with more established companies with better disclosures and more reliable growth trading at half the valuation of Biosyent.

 

 

Q1 2014: 0.04

Q2 2014: 0.06

Q3 2014: 0.07

 

It looked like we were going at a great pace, and Rene would have had you believed that what going to continue for the foreseeable future because all products were in the "product launch/rapid growth" buckets. But clearly that didn't happen:

 

Q4 2014: 0.05

Q1 2015: 0.07

Q2 2015: 0.06

Q3 2015: 0.08

 

It was essentially a lost year, we are only now back to the 7-8 cents per Q run rate. I don't feel like Rene gave enough explanation of the hiccups. Just 'a big order got delayed from Q2 to Q3'. If that were the case, and the order was worth 0.01 of EPS, that would mean we just posted three straight quarters of 0.07. Not exactly the compelling growth we were promised.

 

http://www.biosyent.com/q4-15/#.Vtwxp5zhDIU

 

The clue is at 22 min. 15 sec.

[snowball82]

Very significant news today. "Based on current and forecast market data, and assumptions regarding estimated volume, penetration and pricing, BioSyent forecasts that the two new products will add approximately CAD $20 million to the overall revenue of the company when they reach peak sales."

 

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/biosyent-signs-exclusive-distribution-agreement-165339226.html

[KCLarkin]

2015 net revenue: $15 million

Cardio peak sales: $20 million est.

 

Does that mean that RX thinks the cardio products could double revenue? Or are "peak sales" gross revenue?

[snowball82]

Probably double revenues, let see if we will have more clarity Friday.

 

TORONTO, ONTARIO (May 25, 2016) BioSyent Inc. (“BioSyent”, TSX Venture: RX) will be reporting its financial results for the three months ending March 31, 2016 on Friday, May 27, 2016 at 8:00am (EST). A presentation on the Company’s first quarter 2016 results by Mr. René Goehrum, BioSyent President and CEO, will also be available on the Company’s website on the date of release.

 

Long

[snowball82]

Another new product announced today. No idea what is a realistic peak revenue for this new one.

 

http://www.stockwatch.com/News/Item.aspx?bid=Z-C%3aRX-2419183&symbol=RX&region=C

[wisowis]

Not much interest in this company anymore...

 

Q1 2018:

• First quarter (Q1) 2018 Net Revenues of $4,447,147 increased by 16% versus Q1 2017
  
• Q1 2018 Canadian Pharmaceutical Net Revenues of $3,765,638 increased by 12% versus Q1 2017 and International Pharmaceutical Net Revenues of $565,841 increased by 90% versus Q1 2017
  
• Q1 2018 EBITDA1 of $1,477,767 increased by 24% versus Q1 2017
  
• Q1 2018 Net Income After Tax (NIAT) of $1,143,130 increased by 27% versus Q1 2017
  
• Fully Diluted EPS for the Trailing Twelve Months ended March 31, 2018 was $0.38 as compared to $0.29 for the Trailing Twelve Months ended March 31, 2017
  
• Cash balance now at $19,639,606
  

[snowball82]

I still own my large position I bought few years ago. Good quarter results while the company waits for new approvals.

 

http://www.biosyent.com/q1-18/#.WxDKSZ9KiUl

 

"We've had a pretty strong start to the second quarter with a number of brands hitting all-time records and it's unusual for us to have that in April/May. Typically we see that in October/November. So that seems to indicate well that we've got good momentum as we go towards the balance of this year."

 

Nice exemple about Cysview (US)

 

http://www.good4utah.com/news/imc-bladder-cancer-medical-innovations_20180522002001/1191485695

[snowball82]

Valeant vs Biosyent from Thomas Macpherson

 

https://www.gurufocus.com/news/689360/valeant-and-biosyent-opposites-dont-attract

[snowball82]

 

 

Q2 results

 

http://www.biosyent.com/q2-18/q2-18_pr.pdf

 

 

[wisowis]

They need to figure out something to do with their stockpile of cash that keeps growing endlessly.

 

They are now sitting on $21 million of cash, or ~$1.45/share, or ~15% of their market cap at today's prices.

 

Cash/cash equivalents/short term investments:

2014 - 8.0 million

2015 - 9.7 million

2016 - 13.7 million

2017 - 19.3 million

Q2 2018 - 21.0 million

[wisowis]

Think we are going to see good Q4 results. International sales were unusually low in Q3, due to permit issues, which muted the reported overall growth of the business. So in Q4 either (a) the International sales bounce back, in which case the reported growth will be strong, or (b) the International sales remain low, and the results will still be good because the Canadian business has consistently shown good growth. If I recall correctly from the Q3 call, they don't expect the permit issue to be resolved until second half of 2019, so probably (b) is the more likely scenario.

 

Also good to see they've issued a NCIB to use some of that cash pile to buy back shares: http://biosyent.com/rx/press_releases/December%20_4th,2018_BioSyent%20Announces%20Normal%20Course%20Issuer%20Bid.pdf

 

...even though the cash pile is so large that it won't put much of a dent in it.

[KCLarkin]

Price is starting to get interesting.

 

Stock is down 9% after the company announced that two potential cardio products received "notice of deficiency" from the Canadian regulators. I don't know the long term impact of this, but these products were expected to be significant growth opportunities.

 

Regardless, I prefer to value the company on the current portfolio. The big issue is that Feramax unit sales in Canada seem to have peaked. International sales are too lumpy. And the growth products are still relatively small.

 

Any thoughts?

[david_lai]

I think it is another delay instead of a dead end here, so share price drop is good for those who want to initiate a position here. The 2 cardiovascular products are believed to be another "Fermax" according to CEO previously, which represents very important future growth.

 

But the point here is, do we know usually how along this kind of forth and back process with Health Canada takes?

[Liberty]

Q1: http://www.biosyent.com/q1-19/q1-19_MDA.pdf

 

[KCLarkin]

https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2019/06/26/1874413/0/en/BioSyent-Announces-Withdrawal-of-Health-Canada-Submissions-for-Cardiovascular-Products.html

[wisowis]

Pretty disappointing Q2: http://www.biosyent.com/q2-19/

 

Writedown of $425k for their withdrawn cardiovascular products, no international sales in the quarter, Feramax canadian sales basically flat. They are close to maxing out their NCIB, which seems unfortunate given that the stock has declined sharply and they could be buying shares cheaper. Shares are now trading at approximately a 3-year low.

 

At the end of the presentation, the CEO says that they have "6 term sheets term sheets under negotiation, which is the most they've had in a long time". I just hope they don't overpay for something.

[samaniv]

Guys - updated thoughts here? Stock has really cratered and I don't see any real reason to thing their earnings power has been impaired. Renee noted that they have 6-9 months of supply on hand which should see them through any supply chain disruptions. Can't imagine their products are very sensitive to the economic cycle either.