Guest 50centdollars Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Buffett was on cnbc Friday and said that he thinks markets are going higher and not to sell stocks based on Ukraine and China worries. Watsa on the other hand, stated in his annual report that he thinks you should be worried about China and he is obviously short the market. Who do you think is right? Buffett? Watsa? Both? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morgan Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 This is just food for thought, but has Buffett ever said to sell stocks? Perhaps limit buying (1969-73? When he closed his fund?). Buffett always says the US will be better and richer in the next hundred years. Unless this Russia issue becomes WWIII Buffett is probably right over the next 10, 20, 50, 100 years. On the other had, Watsa may be thinking the next year or two, or maybe three, in which case he may be correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 This is just food for thought, but has Buffett ever said to sell stocks? I can't remember if he said to sell (probably not explicitely), but his Sun Valley speech clearly talked about overvaluation around the dot com bubble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCG Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Being that Wasts has been more wrong about equity investing over last last 6 or so years than nearly everyone else on the entire planet, I trust Buffett's opinion a bit more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cubsfan Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 This is just food for thought, but has Buffett ever said to sell stocks? I can't remember if he said to sell (probably not explicitely), but his Sun Valley speech clearly talked about overvaluation around the dot com bubble. I think in 2006, 2007 it was pretty clear that he was not crazy about equities. At the annual meeting he was always getting beat up about having so much cash piling up - why haven't you put this cash to work, etc? I remember one of his answers "If we are able to put all this cash to work - you won't like the conditions under which we are able to do that". I had trouble understanding that answer until 2009 - then I got it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
investor-man Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Buffett was on cnbc Friday and said that he thinks markets are going higher and not to sell stocks based on Ukraine and China worries. Watsa on the other hand, stated in his annual report that he thinks you should be worried about China and he is obviously short the market. Who do you think is right? Buffett? Watsa? Both? I think this is a misrepresentation of what Buffett said. His remarks were something like "over the next 20 years stocks will go up." And when pressed about a family who had invested for their child's education and now needed to pay it out, he said it may be a good idea to sell. Basically he stuck to the same old Buffett mantra of buy and hold and not worry about the macro for long term investments, but only invest money you will not need in the next five years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest wellmont Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Buffett doesn't say sell unless we are extremes 1999. Buffett doesn't say Buy unless we are extremes 1974 2008. Let's be clear about what he has been saying the last couple years. To be precise all he has been saying is stocks will outperform bonds. Hardly a ringing endorsement. PW has clearly been trying to time the markets. We all have things to learn even if we are already Great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisdom Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 BRK should have over $50B in cash now and $2B in cash coming in every month. That is $30B more than he would like. Just like 2007 increase in cash - it is happening again. He is not predicting but he is ready to take advantage of opportunities should they arise. Watch what he does - not what is says for the larger unsophisticated audience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
augustabound Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 BRK should have ...... $2B in cash coming in every month. Being familiar about BRK like most of us are, I find that number staggering. I think this is the first time I've realized the size of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stahleyp Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Even Warren ain't right all the time. :P http://www.marketwatch.com/story/buffett-says-subprime-crisis-not-a-big-threat-to-us-economy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OnTheShouldersOfGiants Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 $2B in cash coming in every month. When did buffett say this? Last time I remember him commenting was 2 years ago and he said he had $1B a month coming to Omaha. Hard to believe it doubled in 2 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Otsog Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Has Racemize finished his study/paper on being fully invested/holding cash? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Otsog Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Shortcut to find out Buffett's thoughts on equities: 1. Open his latest annual letter 2. Ctrl + F 3. 'Elephant gun' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest longinvestor Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 BRK should have over $50B in cash now and $2B in cash coming in every month. That is $30B more than he would like. Just like 2007 increase in cash - it is happening again. He is not predicting but he is ready to take advantage of opportunities should they arise. Watch what he does - not what is says for the larger unsophisticated audience. +1. Every time he speaks, the media gets into it, the message boards do as well, dicing and slicing every word out of his mouth. And folks are constantly looking for inconsistencies in what he said then versus now. If you don't agree with what he says, put him on your "ignore" list. Listen to others who are agreeable to you. Just follow what he does. Better yet, like I did, just let him manage your money. My money was with both Watsa and Buffett, but Watsa was getting harder and harder to understand. Both his words and actions make me scratch my head. Who knows he may be not wrong at all but Buffett is so much damn easier to understand, both his words and actions. And it does not hurt at all that the cash keeps piling on at BRK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevin4u2 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Being that Wasts has been more wrong about equity investing over last last 6 or so years than nearly everyone else on the entire planet, I trust Buffett's opinion a bit more. Last time Watsa was wrong for that many years, he made an absolute killing on credit default swaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stahleyp Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Being that Wasts has been more wrong about equity investing over last last 6 or so years than nearly everyone else on the entire planet, I trust Buffett's opinion a bit more. Last time Watsa was wrong for that many years, he made an absolute killing on credit default swaps. How long was Watsa with the CDS before the crisis hit? I'm trying to remember, like 4 years? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevin4u2 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Being that Wasts has been more wrong about equity investing over last last 6 or so years than nearly everyone else on the entire planet, I trust Buffett's opinion a bit more. Last time Watsa was wrong for that many years, he made an absolute killing on credit default swaps. How long was Watsa with the CDS before the crisis hit? I'm trying to remember, like 4 years? First mention of MBS and ABS risks were in March 2004. First mention of CDS was Mar 2006. Likely purchased in 2005, so 4 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stahleyp Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Being that Wasts has been more wrong about equity investing over last last 6 or so years than nearly everyone else on the entire planet, I trust Buffett's opinion a bit more. Last time Watsa was wrong for that many years, he made an absolute killing on credit default swaps. How long was Watsa with the CDS before the crisis hit? I'm trying to remember, like 4 years? First mention of MBS and ABS risks were in March 2004. First mention of CDS was Mar 2006. Likely purchased in 2005, so 4 years. Cool. Thanks. The CPI hedges were put in in what, 2010? Hmmm...4 years out if that's the case. I wonder if history will repeat itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gary17 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 We seem to have this kind of discussion every three weeks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
infinitee00 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Has Racemize finished his study/paper on being fully invested/holding cash? +1 I am interested in this too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Packer16 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Last time he was able to identify a specific segment that was ground zero and make a non-recourse bet on this. The contagion led to the stock market decline. I don't see that this time as playing out this time unless you think deflation will happen. Packer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stahleyp Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Last time he was able to identify a specific segment that was ground zero and make a non-recourse bet on this. The contagion led to the stock market decline. I don't see that this time as playing out this time unless you think deflation will happen. Packer Packer, even Eric has put on hedges! ;) In all seriousness, though, I really respect you opinions and wanted to get your thoughts on this. What do you think about this? http://blogs.ft.com/andrew-smithers/2014/03/a-world-awash-with-debt/ "Claims are often made that today’s low investment is due to “deleveraging”. This is nonsense. The figures published on March 6 by the US Federal Reserve show that corporate debt has risen by 9 per cent over the past year." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alekbaylee Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 BRK should have over $50B in cash now and $2B in cash coming in every month. That is $30B more than he would like. Just like 2007 increase in cash - it is happening again. He is not predicting but he is ready to take advantage of opportunities should they arise. Watch what he does - not what is says for the larger unsophisticated audience. +1 - That's true wisdom... ;) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
One World Trader Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 To add -would it be wise to bet against either professional? Is there not a chance both can be correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Palantir Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 I find it curious that Buffett followers are worried about market declines. As long as the firms you own keep operating well and growing earnings, it should not matter what the market does right? ;) EDIT: This is an interesting set of graphs: http://www.morningstar.com/market-valuation/market-fair-value-graph.aspx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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