Liberty Posted November 6, 2015 Author Share Posted November 6, 2015 Q3 is out: http://www.libertyglobal.com/pdf/press-release/LG-Earnings-Release-Q3-15-FINAL.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted December 21, 2015 Author Share Posted December 21, 2015 Write-up on Liberty Global by @jnvest: http://www.jnvestor.com/lbtya/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giofranchi Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Write-up on Liberty Global by @jnvest: http://www.jnvestor.com/lbtya/ Thank you! ;) Cheers, Gio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marazul Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Thank you. The author mentioned it, but I think the estimates are WAYYYY too conservative. OCF growth should be higher than 3%, there should be no deleveraging with new debt used for buybacks, FCF should grow as capex intensity decreases, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BraveChieftain Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 I thought the write-up was pretty good but have some issues with some of the math. Agreed EBITDA growth seems a bit low, but that's been covered. My issue is more on the FCF yield. It doesn't look like the author is deducting the LILAK stake from LBTYK's market cap - this means PF FCF yield for LBTYK is higher than the write-up... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted December 31, 2015 Author Share Posted December 31, 2015 http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-3379214/MARKET-REPORT-Vodafone-said-planning-possible-140bn-merger-listed-cable-company-Liberty-Global-early-2016.html More merger talks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
loganc Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Would anyone with access care to DM me a copy of the MS report? Thanks in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meiroy Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Would anyone with access care to DM me a copy of the MS report? Thanks in advance. [pretentious] executive summary: things are uncertain *shiver* and it already went down a lot so our PT was too high. End. This is exciting. First time ever I'm considering buying it. Hope it keeps crashing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muscleman Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-3379214/MARKET-REPORT-Vodafone-said-planning-possible-140bn-merger-listed-cable-company-Liberty-Global-early-2016.html More merger talks... Two questions here. 1. What's your estimated maintanence capex for Liberty Global? 2. Does this Vodafone deal sound similar to the TCI-AT&T merger in 1999? A phone company pays out fat dividends and focuses on EPS while a cable company tries to minimize tax and focuses on long term cash flow. The marriage of TCI-AT&T did not end up well. How will Malone solve that problem here? Vodafone's market cap is 3 times more than Liberty Global. Will this end up to be Vodafone's CEO driving the show? That would not end up well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ni-co Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-3379214/MARKET-REPORT-Vodafone-said-planning-possible-140bn-merger-listed-cable-company-Liberty-Global-early-2016.html More merger talks... Two questions here. 1. What's your estimated maintanence capex for Liberty Global? 2. Does this Vodafone deal sound similar to the TCI-AT&T merger in 1999? A phone company pays out fat dividends and focuses on EPS while a cable company tries to minimize tax and focuses on long term cash flow. The marriage of TCI-AT&T did not end up well. How will Malone solve that problem here? Vodafone's market cap is 3 times more than Liberty Global. Will this end up to be Vodafone's CEO driving the show? That would not end up well. 1. I don't have an answer for that. In 2014 they spent ~2.7bn on capex and all I know is that it'll be a fraction of that. Think about their business and where they have to spend the money. Most of it is growth capex. 2. I think he will try to take control of the new entity – at least with veto power – exactly because of his AT&T experience. He won't make the same mistake twice. I think VOD/LBTYA is a match made in heaven because it makes all the strategic sense in the world (seamless provision of data access everywhere) and VOD is managed with far too much "tax leakage". A combined entity controlled by Malone and managed for cash flows instead of earnings would be a real beast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurgis Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 If Malone sells LBTYA to VOD without getting control, he'll negotiate very high price and open exit for himself and other shareholders. Of course, this means that there might be no merger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rogermunibond Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Didn't Malone say in the CNBC Faber interview that VOD's shareholder base (at least according to Colao) is particularly wedded to the idea of dividend. Wouldn't really work with Malone taking over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurgis Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Yes, my prediction with ~74% confidence is that merger won't happen. What I wonder about: Malone should realize this too. So why is he talking to VOD for so long? For fun (and - likely no - profit ;) )? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marazul Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 At this point, I would prefer if they are left alone. At these prices, if they grow 5% this thing is a HR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merkhet Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Yes, my prediction with ~74% confidence is that merger won't happen. What I wonder about: Malone should realize this too. So why is he talking to VOD for so long? For fun (and - likely no - profit ;) )? Because they could still talk about some asset swaps that would be favorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rogermunibond Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 *BING* ;) Yes, my prediction with ~74% confidence is that merger won't happen. What I wonder about: Malone should realize this too. So why is he talking to VOD for so long? For fun (and - likely no - profit ;) )? Because they could still talk about some asset swaps that would be favorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valuefinder0525 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 At this point, I would prefer if they are left alone. At these prices, if they grow 5% this thing is a HR. What are the chances of actually achieving this growth rate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marazul Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Fries has mentioned high single digits so I am being "conservative". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valuefinder0525 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Fries has mentioned high single digits so I am being "conservative". Seems to me that he is super promotional. How are we looking on the 1 million organic RGU net adds for 2015? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marazul Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Agree, he seems promotional and I don´t like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rpadebet Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 *BING* ;) Yes, my prediction with ~74% confidence is that merger won't happen. What I wonder about: Malone should realize this too. So why is he talking to VOD for so long? For fun (and - likely no - profit ;) )? Because they could still talk about some asset swaps that would be favorable. Hopefully he finds something interesting to put in the LILA side pocket Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmlber Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Rapidly approaching a 10% FCF yield on ttm #s... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scorpioncapital Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 If I was leveraged 5:1 I could probably earn 10% or what, 2% unleveraged? :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Munger_Disciple Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 If I was leveraged 5:1 I could probably earn 10% or what, 2% unleveraged? Only if your funding cost is 0%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scorpioncapital Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 If I was leveraged 5:1 I could probably earn 10% or what, 2% unleveraged? Only if your funding cost is 0%. Good point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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