oddballstocks Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 How are folks feeling about the odds of the merger now? http://www.bizjournals.com/southflorida/news/2014/12/15/sec-wins-fraud-verdict-against-bbx-and-ceo-levan.html?page=allπ Looks like the merger is dead: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/bbx-capital-provides-statement-verdict-004158708.html I'm guessing that kills this thesis? There was/is a LOT of hedgie-love on this idea. Just complex enough to get everyone interested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chalk bag Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 How are folks feeling about the odds of the merger now? http://www.bizjournals.com/southflorida/news/2014/12/15/sec-wins-fraud-verdict-against-bbx-and-ceo-levan.html?page=allπ Looks like the merger is dead: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/bbx-capital-provides-statement-verdict-004158708.html I'm guessing that kills this thesis? There was/is a LOT of hedgie-love on this idea. Just complex enough to get everyone interested. Boy was I wrong on this one. I personally know a few parties that are involved, myself included. IR basically lied straight to my face, it's absurd. We will see how it goes but you are right - the thesis that hinges upon the merger spread is broken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thepupil Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 assuming both stocks shit the bed tomorrow, might either entity be pretty interesting from lower prices? I mean the CEO lying about some BankAtlantic loans in 2007 doesn't exactly make selling sleazy timeshares less profitable or a portfolio of real estate less valuable. Sure the event path just got blown to pieces, but value is value (although value of company here obviously doesn't equal value that OPMI's will ever realize since this is a bit of a piggy bank stock) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heisenberg Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 If management quality is part of the valuation, valuation will increase if Levan is banned, no ? If the cost of getting rid of him is a 10m fine, this is definitively a big plus ( it's one month of Ebitda for Bluegreen... ) Then you save on his comp and you save on the lawyer fees I'm exaggerating but even if no merger you're still long a business at 3 times EBITDA+NOL, good things will happen to you Probably a good entry point is coming before the end of the year ( 2.7 usd would be very nice ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thepupil Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 If management quality is part of the valuation, valuation will increase if Levan is banned, no ? If the cost of getting rid of him is a 10m fine, this is definitively a big plus ( it's one month of Ebitda for Bluegreen... ) Then you save on his comp and you save on the lawyer fees I'm exaggerating but even if no merger you're still long a business at 3 times EBITDA+NOL, good things will happen to you Probably a good entry point is coming before the end of the year ( 2.7 usd would be very nice ) I'm new to the situation and haven't done much work yet, but I agree. At market prices of BBX (which is probably undervalued real estate and NPL's considering the sales relative to book, when the book was marked, and the deleveraging/derisking that has already occurred) you are buying NOL's and 54% interest in Woodbridge for $1.29 / share ($108MM). Even with all the corporate overhead and hair, it seems quite cheap, particularly if you are like BBX (since realizations and revisions to book and subsequent stock move up will decrease the effective cost paid for the sleazy cash cow time share business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magno111 Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 If management quality is part of the valuation, valuation will increase if Levan is banned, no ? If the cost of getting rid of him is a 10m fine, this is definitively a big plus ( it's one month of Ebitda for Bluegreen... ) Then you save on his comp and you save on the lawyer fees I'm exaggerating but even if no merger you're still long a business at 3 times EBITDA+NOL, good things will happen to you Probably a good entry point is coming before the end of the year ( 2.7 usd would be very nice ) IR guys said Levan is going to appeal, this event could delay the whole thing another 2 years... I think they broke the merger to get a better deal for BFCF in the future, that's explains why BBX went down more than BFCF... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
misterkrusty Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 magno- interesting theory. it would seem to explain why management (except for Levan) has pretty much sold off all their BBX. I wonder if this might somehow explain why they haven't been doing any buybacks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heisenberg Posted March 9, 2015 Share Posted March 9, 2015 U.S SEC seeks maximum penalty so what are the next steps in the U.S court system ? Can the judge decide of a much lighter sentence ? And how long does the judge have to decide ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valuedontlie Posted March 17, 2015 Share Posted March 17, 2015 BFCF announced tender offer for 4.7m shares of BBX at $20. This would increase BFC's ownership in BBX to 81%. http://ir.stockpr.com/bfcfinancial/company-news/detail/694/bfc-financial-corporation-announces-intention-to-commence-a-cash-tender-offer-for-shares-of-class-a-common-stock-of-bbx-capital-corporation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magno111 Posted March 17, 2015 Share Posted March 17, 2015 BFCF announced tender offer for 4.7m shares of BBX at $20. This would increase BFC's ownership in BBX to 81%. http://ir.stockpr.com/bfcfinancial/company-news/detail/694/bfc-financial-corporation-announces-intention-to-commence-a-cash-tender-offer-for-shares-of-class-a-common-stock-of-bbx-capital-corporation anyone knows why BBX is not trading at 20$ ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bantrader Posted March 17, 2015 Share Posted March 17, 2015 Because the tender offer is not for the 100% of the shares and then will be proration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bantrader Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 Levan must step down, one stone less along the way ... http://www.bizjournals.com/southflorida/news/2015/12/10/stay-denied-alan-levan-must-step-down-from-bbx-bfc.html?ana=yahoo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GCA Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 Now we find out if they have the appetite to do a merger/relisting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heisenberg Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 With Levan out at least for some time, I have the following questions : 1. how much will BFCF save a year from his salary and bonus ? 2. can the merger and the upgrade to the Nasdaq finally happen despite the pending appeal ? 3. how long the appeal procedure is expected to last roughly ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GCA Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 With Levan out at least for some time, I have the following questions : 1. how much will BFCF save a year from his salary and bonus ? 2. can the merger and the upgrade to the Nasdaq finally happen despite the pending appeal ? 3. how long the appeal procedure is expected to last roughly ? Here's my best shot: 1. Probably not much because they're going to retain him as a non-executive strategic advisor... at the very least I wouldn't count these chickens before they hatch 2. My understanding is yes, the merger/uplisting can continue, but the company hasn't indicated any intention to actually take this course of action 3. I don't know how long an appeal could take but unless they really care about the fine (which I doubt), it shouldn't last any longer than two years because by then the ban would be up anyways... then again if you google "alan levan dick bove new york times" and you'll see that Levan actually might keep on fighting just on principle http://www.nytimes.com/2010/09/12/business/12suit.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heisenberg Posted November 20, 2016 Share Posted November 20, 2016 Merger expected on 15th December market cap post merger $365M average fcf of Bluegreenfor the lasr 3 years $96M fcf yield post merger 26.4% I know most of it will be used to build new businesses instead of buying back the cheap stock but the management can be credited for buying Bluegreen on the cheap so they have the benefit of the doubt I expect a 100% return for a low teens FCF yield at a 12 months horizon as : - the corporate structure gets simplified and the fcf of Bluegreen make their way in plain sight - up listing to a real exchange - increase of buy-backs and dividends that have been initiated symbolically this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muscleman Posted November 20, 2016 Share Posted November 20, 2016 Merger expected on 15th December market cap post merger $365M average fcf of Bluegreenfor the lasr 3 years $96M fcf yield post merger 26.4% I know most of it will be used to build new businesses instead of buying back the cheap stock but the management can be credited for buying Bluegreen on the cheap so they have the benefit of the doubt I expect a 100% return for a low teens FCF yield at a 12 months horizon as : - the corporate structure gets simplified and the fcf of Bluegreen make their way in plain sight - up listing to a real exchange - increase of buy-backs and dividends that have been initiated symbolically this year There is a VIC writeup about this. https://www.valueinvestorsclub.com/idea/BFC_FINANCIAL_CORP__-CL_A/114392 The thesis is that the downside is protected by the assets and the upside is provided by the FCF from the Bluegreens. The question is how comfortable will you be with vacation clubs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heisenberg Posted November 21, 2016 Share Posted November 21, 2016 more comfortable than with owning a bank :) i mean their N.I.M is huge, risk of defaults is low and they don't carry too much inventory they kind have a moat on the units of their clubs what's not to like ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GCA Posted November 21, 2016 Share Posted November 21, 2016 Merger expected on 15th December market cap post merger $365M average fcf of Bluegreenfor the lasr 3 years $96M fcf yield post merger 26.4% I know most of it will be used to build new businesses instead of buying back the cheap stock but the management can be credited for buying Bluegreen on the cheap so they have the benefit of the doubt Looking at "Bluegreen only" cash flows is very misleading. Roughly speaking: about $10MM of that cash flow will go to the minority interest in the Big Cedar JV (assuming cash flows are in proportion to earnings) about $25MM of that cash flow will go to pay corporate expenses at the BFCF level So really you're looking at something closer to $60MM of cash flow from the BFCF/Bluegreen side. Not too shabby but lets not get ahead of ourselves As you stated much of that cash flow will go into the BBX side where they want to buy and build different businesses... which of course will complicate the story and obfuscate the Bluegreen cash flow Other comments: I'm not sure how much benefit of the doubt you want to give management considering they keep pouring money into a chocolate empire that doesn't make profits The merger could fall apart if enough BBX shareholders dissent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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