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CHTR - Charter Communications


Guest JoelS

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To the extent that you think Charter comes out well on the other side, this downdraft in stock price will help Liberty Broadband once it secures some cash in the rights offering.

 

On the other hand, the lower the stock price of Liberty Broadband, the smaller the cash it will receive in the rights offering. Right?

 

Gio

 

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To the extent that you think Charter comes out well on the other side, this downdraft in stock price will help Liberty Broadband once it secures some cash in the rights offering.

 

On the other hand, the lower the stock price of Liberty Broadband, the smaller the cash it will receive in the rights offering. Right?

 

Gio

 

Yes, also true.

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Using the numbers from the proxy, EBITDA should grow to $19.5BN by 2019. Let´s say that during those 4 years the multiple gets compressed to 8.25x and that leverage is mantained at 4.0x. If they use all the FCF and incremental debt (as they have done historically and expect to do) the share count should be reduced by approximately 40%. Using that 8.25x multiple and 4.0x leverage would leave us with an equity value of $82.5BN or $435 per share using the reduced share count for an IRR over the 4 years of 23%. At that price, the FCF multiple would be close to 8.5x. Let´s assume CHTR deserves a 12x FCF multiple, that takes the stock to $617 or a 34% IRR over the 4 years. Yes, there are a lot of risks such as the TWC deal getting blocked, leverage, depending on the capital markets, technological risk, Google Fiber, etc.. but if things go according to plan then the upside is huge.

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http://www.reuters.com/article/us-twc-charter-communi-fcc-idUSKCN0WI02Z

 

 

.S. Federal Communications Commission Chairman Tom Wheeler is likely to circulate a draft order approving Charter Communications Inc's (CHTR.O) $56 billion deal to buy Time Warner Cable Inc (TWC.N), the Wall Street Journal reported, citing people familiar with the matter.

 

The order, which could be circulated as soon as this week, would levy some conditions on the deal, such as preventing Charter from including clauses in pay-TV contracts that limit a content company's ability to offer its programming online or to new entrants, the WSJ reported on Tuesday.

 

The transaction will also likely include a requirement for Charter to build or upgrade service to more homes, the Journal said.

 

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Does anyone know the source of the diluted share count increase? It's been going up by about 1 million shares a quarter, but the 10-k shows the equity grants are only 164k shares for the whole 2015.

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1091667/000109166716000396/chtr123115-10k.htm#s93EBB37E823E0AF10248B53A3DE2184F

 

Please see page F-29, F- 37 and F- 38.

 

The acquisition of 35% ownership of AVN in 2015 is all case, so that won't increase the count.

 

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Another question, what's the proper way to calculate CHTR's ROIC?

Their PPE plus accumulated D&A is 15 bn, but they also have 6 bn francise asset. I wonder if I should use adjusted EBITDA/(ppe+accumulated D&A+franchise value) to calculate it?

 

I know the traditional way to do this is to use EBIT/(total assets), but in the case of cable or real estate firms, the assets appreciate in value, so that may not be the best way.

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Does anyone know the source of the diluted share count increase? It's been going up by about 1 million shares a quarter, but the 10-k shows the equity grants are only 164k shares for the whole 2015.

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1091667/000109166716000396/chtr123115-10k.htm#s93EBB37E823E0AF10248B53A3DE2184F

 

Please see page F-29, F- 37 and F- 38.

 

The acquisition of 35% ownership of AVN in 2015 is all case, so that won't increase the count.

 

I finally found out this is related to the exercise of warrants "pursuant to the Joint Plan of Reorganization upon the Company's emergence from bankruptcy in 2009."

So this should be a non-recurring event.

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http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-04-25/charter-takeover-of-time-warner-cable-gets-antitrust-approval

 

Charter Communications Inc. won U.S. antitrust approval for its $55 billion takeover of Time Warner Cable Inc., which would create the No. 2 U.S. cable provider, after agreeing to measures intended to protect distribution of online video.

 

They are required to build 1 million homes in which a competitor with at least 25 M speed internet is already available. Not sure if the economics will be good on these projects.

Does anyone know if AT&T's U-verse is DSL based? I see on their website that U-Verse can go up to 1 G as well.

I don't think CHTR will build out to homes that already have Comcast or other cable internet. They will most likely build to homes with AT&T's DSL access.

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They are required to build 1 million homes in which a competitor with at least 25 M speed internet is already available. Not sure if the economics will be good on these projects.

 

Small price to pay to get the deal done. They can stretch the build out over many years. As a % of homes already passed for New Charter, 1M is a small number.

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Q2:

 

Key highlights:

• Charter is now a company with greater scale, an enhanced footprint, and new revenue, product innovation and cost savings opportunities. Charter's network reaches 48.8 million homes and businesses, and serves 25.6 million residential and small and medium business ("SMB") customers.

• Pro forma1 for the Transactions, second quarter revenues of $10.0 billion grew 6.6% as compared to the prior-year period, driven by residential revenue growth of 5.6% and commercial revenue growth of 13.4%. On an actual1 basis, second quarter revenue of $6.2 billion grew 153.5% year-over-year, driven primarily by the Transactions.

• On a pro forma basis, total customer relationships increased 173,000 during the second quarter, compared to 54,000 during the second quarter of 2015, and for the twelve months ended June 30, 2016, grew by 1,251,000 or 5.1%. Pro forma residential and SMB primary service units ("PSUs") increased by 249,000 during the period, versus 270,000 in the year-ago quarter. The year-over-year decline in PSU net additions was driven by fewer voice net additions in the second quarter of 2016 versus the second quarter of 2015.

• On a pro forma basis, second quarter Adjusted EBITDA2 of $3.5 billion grew 9.0% year-over-year. Excluding transition costs in the second quarters of 2016 and 2015, Adjusted EBITDA grew by 9.2% year-over-year. On an actual basis, second quarter Adjusted EBITDA grew by 161.6%, driven primarily by the Transactions.

• Pro forma net income totaled $280 million in the second quarter, compared to $107 million during the same period last year, driven by higher income from operations year-over-year. On an actual basis, net income totaled $3.1 billion, compared to a net loss of $122 million during the second quarter of 2015, driven by higher income from operations following the close of the Transactions and the reduction of substantially all of Charter’s historical valuation allowance on its deferred tax assets.

• On a pro forma basis, second quarter capital expenditures totaled $2.1 billion, as compared to $1.9 billion in the year-ago period. Excluding transition capital, second quarter 2016 pro forma capital expenditures totaled $2.0 billion as compared to $1.8 billion during the second quarter of 2015. Second quarter actual capital expenditures totaled $1.3 billion.

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Q2:

 

Key highlights:

• Charter is now a company with greater scale, an enhanced footprint, and new revenue, product innovation and cost savings opportunities. Charter's network reaches 48.8 million homes and businesses, and serves 25.6 million residential and small and medium business ("SMB") customers.

• Pro forma1 for the Transactions, second quarter revenues of $10.0 billion grew 6.6% as compared to the prior-year period, driven by residential revenue growth of 5.6% and commercial revenue growth of 13.4%. On an actual1 basis, second quarter revenue of $6.2 billion grew 153.5% year-over-year, driven primarily by the Transactions.

• On a pro forma basis, total customer relationships increased 173,000 during the second quarter, compared to 54,000 during the second quarter of 2015, and for the twelve months ended June 30, 2016, grew by 1,251,000 or 5.1%. Pro forma residential and SMB primary service units ("PSUs") increased by 249,000 during the period, versus 270,000 in the year-ago quarter. The year-over-year decline in PSU net additions was driven by fewer voice net additions in the second quarter of 2016 versus the second quarter of 2015.

• On a pro forma basis, second quarter Adjusted EBITDA2 of $3.5 billion grew 9.0% year-over-year. Excluding transition costs in the second quarters of 2016 and 2015, Adjusted EBITDA grew by 9.2% year-over-year. On an actual basis, second quarter Adjusted EBITDA grew by 161.6%, driven primarily by the Transactions.

• Pro forma net income totaled $280 million in the second quarter, compared to $107 million during the same period last year, driven by higher income from operations year-over-year. On an actual basis, net income totaled $3.1 billion, compared to a net loss of $122 million during the second quarter of 2015, driven by higher income from operations following the close of the Transactions and the reduction of substantially all of Charter’s historical valuation allowance on its deferred tax assets.

• On a pro forma basis, second quarter capital expenditures totaled $2.1 billion, as compared to $1.9 billion in the year-ago period. Excluding transition capital, second quarter 2016 pro forma capital expenditures totaled $2.0 billion as compared to $1.8 billion during the second quarter of 2015. Second quarter actual capital expenditures totaled $1.3 billion.

 

I saw the results earlier today, and scratching my head as to why CHTR is doing much better than Liberty Global. Any thoughts on that?

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I saw the results earlier today, and scratching my head as to why CHTR is doing much better than Liberty Global. Any thoughts on that?

 

Lot of reasons -- but the biggest is probably that there is a lot more English content for an American audience in TV than there are local-language (and cultural) context for European markets. This means that the average American has higher quality content than the average European (the average quality of the content does't matter -- just the raw volume of it). Hence TV, has always been a bigger US phenomenon than in Europe, so its a much more important product here.

 

~15 years ago, the TV market was very competitive in the US with the advent of Satellite but now, broadband internet is far more important and this has shifted the balance back towards cable. Broadband internet is also largely (though not entirely) about video and the shift from a subscription package to one plus an OTT package has allowed for a secular growth in cable subscriptions at a cost to traditional internet providers and satellite. In Europe, which is also far more Balkanized and far more competitive, doesn't face this same pressures to the same degree. In contrast, Charter inherited a substantial pool of assets (in terms of wires in the ground) that were under-managed that now have a substantial, and importantly, new, competitive advantage. There aren't any clever bits of strategy here -- Charter really just has to execute to grow revenue and the extra scale and low interest rates (and NOLs) provide a lot of operating and financial leverage for that growth. B/c of the leverage involved, any data that reinforces this story will send the stock through the roof.

 

 

Just full disclosure, I made all of this up, and I know very little about LBTYA/K but I think it's pretty compelling.

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