CHTR - Charter Communications

[undervalued]

So what's the Conclusion? :)

 

Let Malone figure it out? lol I don't know.

[DooDiligence]

So what's the Conclusion? :)

 

Let Malone figure it out? lol I don't know.

 

Good answer. I'll go with that.

[Shooter MacGavin]

Perhaps this is not the correct place to ask this questions, but has anyone done any serious research on potential health effects of cell tower radiation? 

 

Just curious.

 

This is just an n=1 sample but I've used a cell phone for over 20 years and I still don't have any mutant powers....

[JRM]

Perhaps this is not the correct place to ask this questions, but has anyone done any serious research on potential health effects of cell tower radiation? 

 

Just curious.

 

This is just an n=1 sample but I've used a cell phone for over 20 years and I still don't have any mutant powers....

 

Ya, I know it sounds a little out there.  There are strong advocates for the health concerns, believe it or not.  I imagine someday everyone will have a rectangle shaped cancer on the leg where they kept a cell phone in their pocket for years...

[cameronfen]

Perhaps this is not the correct place to ask this questions, but has anyone done any serious research on potential health effects of cell tower radiation? 

 

Just curious.

 

This is just an n=1 sample but I've used a cell phone for over 20 years and I still don't have any mutant powers....

 

Ya, I know it sounds a little out there.  There are strong advocates for the health concerns, believe it or not.  I imagine someday everyone will have a rectangle shaped cancer on the leg where they kept a cell phone in their pocket for years...

 

This is true there is good evidence that cell phones at least cause health issues, however there is also a lot of counter evidence.  So its not a clear cut no. 

[scorpioncapital]

https://motherboard.vice.com/en_us/article/7xmxza/america-hates-comcast-more-than-ever

 

https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2018/05/streaming-video-trounces-cable-tv-in-customer-satisfaction-ratings/

 

8% decline in customer satisfaction. I wonder if it's due to more customers or integration issues. Or something else.

[Liberty]

https://motherboard.vice.com/en_us/article/7xmxza/america-hates-comcast-more-than-ever

 

https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2018/05/streaming-video-trounces-cable-tv-in-customer-satisfaction-ratings/

 

8% decline in customer satisfaction. I wonder if it's due to more customers or integration issues. Or something else.

 

Sound slike it's probably billing/integration issues. They mentioned that when you change products and change billing to consolidate things and move the products to the new strategy, there's going to be more transactions/service calls. It'll be interesting to see over time if it's a blip or a trend.

[DooDiligence]

https://motherboard.vice.com/en_us/article/7xmxza/america-hates-comcast-more-than-ever

 

https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2018/05/streaming-video-trounces-cable-tv-in-customer-satisfaction-ratings/

 

8% decline in customer satisfaction. I wonder if it's due to more customers or integration issues. Or something else.

 

Sound slike it's probably billing/integration issues. They mentioned that when you change products and change billing to consolidate things and move the products to the new strategy, there's going to be more transactions/service calls. It'll be interesting to see over time if it's a blip or a trend.

 

My ATT bill is dead simple & I pay a straight $50 for their Internet 45 plan (great service so far.)

 

Are the system changes needed in order to groom the company for a match?

Are they just trying to score better on customer service?

Have you seen a Spectrum invoice?

How hard can it be to understand?

Has there been a price increase?

Boy I hope so, even a dollar or two would be nice.

 

---

 

Someone's probably already posted this but,

 

https://www.dslreports.com/shownews/Scoop-Charter-Wireless-Drops-June-30-Mirrors-Comcast-Pricing-141756

[scorpioncapital]

I tried the google service once. I think it was $10 a gb. Could be used worldwide. I recall it worked quite well, there was no dropouts or anything. However, I believe now 3 in the UK has the USA as an at home roaming. I believe you can get 5GB or even unlimited data for 1/2 the price of the Charter package if you're willing to have a UK number. North American rates are an island unto themselves.

 

 

[Munger_Disciple]

Interesting PC Mag interview with the CTO of T-Mobile:

 

 

He comments on Verizon's mm wave 5G at the 30 sec mark: "unexciting with very limited range". T-Mobile is initially launching 600 MHz 5G nationwide, intended for IoT. 

 

 

[Munger_Disciple]

Article about AT&T's mm wave trials:

 

https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2018/04/atts-5g-trials-produce-gigabit-speeds-and-9ms-latency/

[scorpioncapital]

I absolutely hate to own stocks that are in decline, because even though you may still have some return it can be a real slog (look at IBM, KHC, and many legacy tech businesses). I am not sure how this plays out with CHTR since the AT&T trials @ 1 GBPS are pretty much equivalent to what cable can do right now. Given the new investment, I can't imagine monthly pricing will be much lower. But how much broadband losses are baked into the current sub 10x p/cash flow ratio? But if broadband is a utility, unless there is a clear price and performance advantage, I don't see why there isn't room for several options. On the other hand, the more utility like , the more tempered the return expectations should be.

[Spekulatius]

The ATT trial was mostly line of sight. MM waves don’t go round corners or through obstacles generally. Also, from the data, they mentioned trials at 400Mhz, similar to currently used cellphone frequencies, which are meter waves - those go round corners and obstacles due to diffraction.

 

It seems to me way to early to speculate too much about what is going to happen. let CHTR run their business for now and generate mid/high single digits EBITDA growth and buy back shares. everything so far indicates that the tech, however it is implemented, needs lots of towers/repeaters, which favors the companies that have assets in the ground already, I think.

[Jurgis]

The ATT trial was mostly line of sight. MM waves don’t go round corners or through obstacles generally. Also, from the data, they mentioned trials at 400Mhz, similar to currently used cellphone frequencies, which are meter waves - those go round corners and obstacles due to diffraction.

 

It seems to me way to early to speculate too much about what is going to happen. let CHTR run their business for now and generate mid/high single digits EBITDA growth and buy back shares. everything so far indicates that the tech, however it is implemented, needs lots of towers/repeaters, which favors the companies that have assets in the ground already, I think.

 

I agree with Spekulatius. Verizon&co have incentive to advertise their best tests and fast rollout. In reality performance will likely be much worse and the rollout will likely be quite slow.

[Liberty]

The ATT trial was mostly line of sight. MM waves don’t go round corners or through obstacles generally. Also, from the data, they mentioned trials at 400Mhz, similar to currently used cellphone frequencies, which are meter waves - those go round corners and obstacles due to diffraction.

 

It seems to me way to early to speculate too much about what is going to happen. let CHTR run their business for now and generate mid/high single digits EBITDA growth and buy back shares. everything so far indicates that the tech, however it is implemented, needs lots of towers/repeaters, which favors the companies that have assets in the ground already, I think.

 

I agree with Spekulatius. Verizon&co have incentive to advertise their best tests and fast rollout. In reality performance will likely be much worse and the rollout will likely be quite slow.

 

How fast will they invest? Will the cut their dividends?

[Jurgis]

The ATT trial was mostly line of sight. MM waves don’t go round corners or through obstacles generally. Also, from the data, they mentioned trials at 400Mhz, similar to currently used cellphone frequencies, which are meter waves - those go round corners and obstacles due to diffraction.

 

It seems to me way to early to speculate too much about what is going to happen. let CHTR run their business for now and generate mid/high single digits EBITDA growth and buy back shares. everything so far indicates that the tech, however it is implemented, needs lots of towers/repeaters, which favors the companies that have assets in the ground already, I think.

 

I agree with Spekulatius. Verizon&co have incentive to advertise their best tests and fast rollout. In reality performance will likely be much worse and the rollout will likely be quite slow.

 

How fast will they invest? Will the cut their dividends?

 

I don't know. Historically though the newG rollouts were slower and had worse performance than expected for some time. I've had internet through fixed wireless cable-replacement pitch hmm maybe 5 or 7 years ago now? That company is BK AFAIK or at least not in business. Not saying that Verizon will go BK, since they are mobile powerhouse and in good financial shape. Not saying 5G is DOA. But likely cable replacement part is not gonna go fast or deliver as good performance as advertised. At least for couple years. 5-10 years out... who knows.

[AJDelphi]

The ATT trial was mostly line of sight. MM waves don’t go round corners or through obstacles generally. Also, from the data, they mentioned trials at 400Mhz, similar to currently used cellphone frequencies, which are meter waves - those go round corners and obstacles due to diffraction.

 

It seems to me way to early to speculate too much about what is going to happen. let CHTR run their business for now and generate mid/high single digits EBITDA growth and buy back shares. everything so far indicates that the tech, however it is implemented, needs lots of towers/repeaters, which favors the companies that have assets in the ground already, I think.

 

I agree with Spekulatius. Verizon&co have incentive to advertise their best tests and fast rollout. In reality performance will likely be much worse and the rollout will likely be quite slow.

 

How fast will they invest? Will the cut their dividends?

 

I'd be shocked if ATT/Verizon cut their dividend. If they want to compete with a wireless broadband product it will take a TON of small cells and probably new fiber being laid to get closer to their connections. It just seems like it is going to take a while until they can get a dense enough network to get reliable wireless broadband service through buildings.

 

ATT is already spending $20 billion a year in capex so maybe they can fit that within the budget. But if it doesn't which I suspect (already increased 2018 budget to $23 billion), because of those dividend obligations, it will be a slow rollout and don't see why Charter or Comcast wouldn't be able to compete well.

 

If Charter and Comcast wanted to offer a wireless broadband product they could acquire DISH, with it's spectrum, and start building out a network themselves. Or could Charter or Comast make agreements with some of their customers to build small cells to serve other customers in the immediate area? Don't see why not and they already have fiber in the ground on that last mile so wouldn't have to build that out like ATT/Verizon.

 

I assume they are thinking all of this through rationally so I'm not terribly worried about Charter's future in respect to wireless broadband. I'm certainly paying attention though.

[jmp8822]

Isn't the biggest risk here, what if 5G works in suburban/urban neighborhoods at a CHEAPER price per month than cable internet?  What if they can deliver 1000 mbps to households within 2,000 feet like the Verizon CEO suggests. Perhaps laying fiber near main roads and letting the air carry the spectrum the rest of the way wouldn't be the biggest relative capital cost compared to today's monthly pricing per customer.

 

Let's say that 500 mbps is $20 per month added to your cell phone bill and there is strong coverage near your house.  Wouldn't almost everyone instantaneously cancel their home internet plan that costs $50+? 5G in your neighborhood is a no-brainer add-on if the price is the same or lower, while no one is cancelling their cell phone plan anytime soon. Okay, so let's say cable internet lowers its price to $20/per month - the financial leverage and operating leverage could bankrupt a cable company in that case. I have no position here, but the 5G probably won't be that great thesis isn't strong in my opinion.

[Munger_Disciple]

The only 5G plan AT&T CEO mentioned at the most recent JP Morgan Telecom event was the upgrading of their towers as a part of FirstNet contract. While they are implementing the contract, they would upgrade the tower equipment to 5G capability. So AT&T would not be installing any small cells for mm wave 5G in the near term, only making low band (700 MHz) and mid band (< 4 GHz) 5G compatible at their existing towers which would require substantially less capex. This would not support fixed wireless broadband but would support low latency IoT devices, autonomous driving and other applications.

 

From the PcMag interview, it appears to me that T-Mobile is only doing 5G at low band and mid band for the time being and their CTO does not seem think mm wave 5G has much potential.

 

Millimeter wave 5G requires an overbuild of a competing cable plant with lots of fiber connections to very small cells. Even then, it is not clear how much bandwidth they can provide to end users because of propagation losses at very high frequencies.

[Munger_Disciple]

Isn't the biggest risk here, what if 5G works in suburban/urban neighborhoods at a CHEAPER price per month than cable internet?  What if they can deliver 1000 mbps to households within 2,000 feet like the Verizon CEO suggests. Perhaps laying fiber near main roads and letting the air carry the spectrum the rest of the way wouldn't be the biggest relative capital cost compared to today's monthly pricing per customer.

 

Let's say that 500 mbps is $20 per month added to your cell phone bill and there is strong coverage near your house.  Wouldn't almost everyone instantaneously cancel their home internet plan that costs $50+? 5G in your neighborhood is a no-brainer add-on if the price is the same or lower, while no one is cancelling their cell phone plan anytime soon. Okay, so let's say cable internet lowers its price to $20/per month - the financial leverage and operating leverage could bankrupt a cable company in that case. I have no position here, but the 5G probably won't be that great thesis isn't strong in my opinion.

 

How about the capex needed to layout all the fiber and connect all the 5G access points (that have only 100 meter range) to fiber? How does that get financed and would just a $20 add-on justify the cost?

[dwy000]

Cable's big advantage is that they have already spent the capex.  5G may offer higher speed or bandwidth (at least until the next tech upgrade at the cable/fiber level) but it's a massive new cost.  Verizon has said that it will so far fall under their existing capex plan of $17bn per year (they've been at $17bn for each of the past 3 years).  That's great as a test case but as a nation wide roll out it will incremental.  They have plenty of financial flexibility to do it (esp if competition gets reduced with 3 rational wireless players) but the question is what is the return on capital?

 

Google Fiber started to overbuild and lay fiber to compete with cable and very quickly stopped because the economics don't make sense (especially when the existing broadband providers just matched price with Google). 

 

I would think the capital would be better spent for both sides in merging.  Put Verizon and Charter or Comcast together and you can take as much time as you need to roll out 5G - if it even makes sense at that point.

[jmp8822]

Isn't the biggest risk here, what if 5G works in suburban/urban neighborhoods at a CHEAPER price per month than cable internet?  What if they can deliver 1000 mbps to households within 2,000 feet like the Verizon CEO suggests. Perhaps laying fiber near main roads and letting the air carry the spectrum the rest of the way wouldn't be the biggest relative capital cost compared to today's monthly pricing per customer.

 

Let's say that 500 mbps is $20 per month added to your cell phone bill and there is strong coverage near your house.  Wouldn't almost everyone instantaneously cancel their home internet plan that costs $50+? 5G in your neighborhood is a no-brainer add-on if the price is the same or lower, while no one is cancelling their cell phone plan anytime soon. Okay, so let's say cable internet lowers its price to $20/per month - the financial leverage and operating leverage could bankrupt a cable company in that case. I have no position here, but the 5G probably won't be that great thesis isn't strong in my opinion.

 

How about the capex needed to layout all the fiber and connect all the 5G access points (that have only 100 meter range ) to fiber? How does that get financed and would just a $20 add-on justify the cost?

 

I guess what I'm saying is the Verizon CEO in the first video says the very short distances (100 meter) is a myth, and they can do over 2,000 feet (600 meters) and the second video says the speed doesn't drop much from 1000 Mbps (down to say 700 Mbps in 2,000 feet). What if that is actually true? In my opinion, assuming the Verizon CEO is lying is a dangerous thesis. This also assumes improvements won't be made/discovered.  Again, no position here, but I wouldn't be going long a home internet company myself.

 

Check these out if you haven't, posted earlier in this thread:

Check out the first video at about 5:30.

 

 

[Liberty]

Check these out if you haven't, posted earlier in this thread:

Check out the first video at about 5:30.

 

 

Look at the game demo on the left side of the screen around 8:00min in that first video. Lots of compression artifacts, hiccups and lag, in a company demo.

[Munger_Disciple]

 

I guess what I'm saying is the Verizon CEO in the first video says the very short distances (100 meter) is a myth, and they can do over 2,000 feet (600 meters) and the second video says the speed doesn't drop much from 1000 Mbps (down to say 700 Mbps in 2,000 feet). What if that is actually true? In my opinion, assuming the Verizon CEO is lying is a dangerous thesis. This also assumes improvements won't be made/discovered.  Again, no position here, but I wouldn't be going long a home internet company myself.

 

Check these out if you haven't, posted earlier in this thread:

Check out the first video at about 5:30.

 

 

 

Verizon CEO has an opinion, and others have differing opinions (see AT&T tests, Charter CEO comments and T-Mobile views on the topic). He may be right or wrong. I suggest keeping the discussion to core technical and business issues at hand instead of making false accusations about what is being said.

 

You still have not answered my question: what is the capital needed and what is the IRR?

[jmp8822]

 

I guess what I'm saying is the Verizon CEO in the first video says the very short distances (100 meter) is a myth, and they can do over 2,000 feet (600 meters) and the second video says the speed doesn't drop much from 1000 Mbps (down to say 700 Mbps in 2,000 feet). What if that is actually true? In my opinion, assuming the Verizon CEO is lying is a dangerous thesis. This also assumes improvements won't be made/discovered.  Again, no position here, but I wouldn't be going long a home internet company myself.

 

Check these out if you haven't, posted earlier in this thread:

Check out the first video at about 5:30.

 

 

 

Verizon CEO has an opinion, and others have differing opinions (see AT&T tests, Charter CEO comments and T-Mobile views on the topic). He may be right or wrong. I suggest keeping the discussion to core technical and business issues at hand in stead of making false accusations about what is being said.

 

You still have not answered my question: what is the capital needed and what is the IRR?

 

I don't know what the capital needed is or the IRR, which is precisely why I wouldn't own a levered cable company while waiting to find out.  But, the Verizon CEO in the video does say that 2,000 feet versus the 200 foot myth will have a "huge impact on our capital need going forward". I'm guessing you must know the capital needs? Also, false accusations? Not following what statement you're referencing.