Spekulatius Posted June 16, 2020 Share Posted June 16, 2020 Disclaimer : I have not yet studied the satellite option from a technical aspect so the following are merely hunches and self questioning. A couple of years ago, all the rage was about how residential 5G was going to take market share from cable. We were all studying its limitations: only a few blocks radius, problems with moving vehicles, weather, trees and going deep into buildings. Then nothing happened. Turns out either Verizon was bluffing or they were way too early/optimistic on the technology. How is something orbiting 340 miles away with its signal going through weather, migrating birds, planes, roofs and storeys, going to succeed at delivering an experience even close to home broadband if 5G can't? Musk has a history of vastly over promising as far as timelines are concerned but he usually does end up delivering eventually, so I wouldn't completely brush the danger off for the longer run. In fact, I believe it's almost unavoidable that several companies will blanket the Earth with some form of primitive internet access available en masse sometimes in the next 4-7 years, because places like Africa are simply too big of a new addressable and growing market for the Facebook, Google and Tencent of the world. However, while the satellite technology is being deployed, our data consumption will keep increasing as will terrestrial broadband's capacity (10 and 25 GBPS symmetrical are in the pipes). For all those reasons I just don't see why satellite broadband would replace the extremely high quality broadband access that's already in place in people's homes and offices all over the developed world. I have to admit though that it does make me rethink my investments in Millicom and Liberty Latin America a bit. Yes, near earth satellites still aus the line of eight issue. They also need to be more or less right above you, so a satellite System serving Latin America for example needs to have the near to equator orbit to serve it and likely would be designed to serve other continents as well. The ultimate scale game. I think it is a great option for rural/remote areas and Worldwide cellphone/internet operators - great for ships, airplanes and remote areas in that it can provide seamless internet likely with a few systems working together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scorpioncapital Posted June 16, 2020 Share Posted June 16, 2020 Any thoughts on the time frame this would come to market ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted June 16, 2020 Share Posted June 16, 2020 Any thoughts on the time frame this would come to market ? Well, I'm sure they all have timelines and targets, but the real answer is probably ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gamecock-YT Posted July 15, 2020 Share Posted July 15, 2020 Charter at $550, quickly approaching Rutledge's magic $564 per share figure for his shares vesting...wonder if we'll see a burst of buybacks to try and juice it up to that price. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chesko182 Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 Q2 out: https://ir.charter.com/static-files/8402d27e-e891-41ce-ba11-b8fd55f79709 up nicely pre-market, guessing this is why: Residential net adds: Internet 842K vs Cons. 431K Video 102K vs Cons.(151K) Voice 38K vs Cons. (191K) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scorpioncapital Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 Any risks from the new Amazon and spacex satellite broadband initiative? i think spacex is going to announce retail service soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 Any risks from the new Amazon and spacex satellite broadband initiative? i think spacex is going to announce retail service soon. Define "soon" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 CHTR has now bought back 27.6% of the company since the TWC deal in 2016, at an average price of $358/share. Q2 was so abnormal that CHTR even added VOICE and video subs “Consolidated free cash flow for the second quarter of 2020 totaled $1.9 billion, compared to $1.1 billion in 2019. Cable free cash flow totaled $2.1 billion for the second quarter of 2020, versus $1.4 billion in 2019.” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gamecock-YT Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 CHTR has now bought back 27.6% of the company since the TWC deal in 2016, at an average price of $358/share. Q2 was so abnormal that CHTR even added VOICE and video subs “Consolidated free cash flow for the second quarter of 2020 totaled $1.9 billion, compared to $1.1 billion in 2019. Cable free cash flow totaled $2.1 billion for the second quarter of 2020, versus $1.4 billion in 2019.” Not sure about CHTR, but LBRDA/K has nearly doubled from when the stock crashed back in 2018 over subscriber concerns. Wish I bought more, that was one of those cinches that Munger talks about coming along once in a blue moon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
undervalued Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 Is SpaceX , musk a deadly risky to charter shareholders? https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/06/15/spacex-inches-closer-to-a-16-billion-fcc-payday.aspx "With its Starlink satellites orbiting so much closer to Earth, though, SpaceX is promising latency "below 20 milliseconds," on par with latency from a wired internet provider on Earth. The FCC initially doubted this assertion, but last week the FCC confirmed it will give SpaceX a chance to prove its capability." Amazon's Kuiper just got FCC approval also. https://spacenews.com/amazons-kuiper-constellation-gets-fcc-approval/ I don't know how fast they could make cable obsolete. It kind of reminds me of that movie The Hummingbird Project about high speed trading where the main character focuses on laying down the fastest cable on earth and the competition focuses on the fastest wireless (which main character think is not possible). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vince Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 CHTR has now bought back 27.6% of the company since the TWC deal in 2016, at an average price of $358/share. Q2 was so abnormal that CHTR even added VOICE and video subs “Consolidated free cash flow for the second quarter of 2020 totaled $1.9 billion, compared to $1.1 billion in 2019. Cable free cash flow totaled $2.1 billion for the second quarter of 2020, versus $1.4 billion in 2019.” Not sure about CHTR, but LBRDA/K has nearly doubled from when the stock crashed back in 2018 over subscriber concerns. Wish I bought more, that was one of those cinches that Munger talks about coming along once in a blue moon. Lbrda has actually lagged the % increase in Charter and there is now a roughly 20% Lbrda discount. Said another way you can buy Charter for 450 a share today thru Lbrda. At 450 you are paying 105 billion for Charter. Ending 2021 they will have 50 billion in revenue, 20 billion in Ebitda. Capex at 6 billion (or 12% of Rev) is still higher than where Comcast is at (and includes growth expenditures) and 4 billion of interest gets us to 10 billion in fcf. In 2022 (and beyond) they will have some cash taxes but cash flows will be growing at 5-10% annually therefore their normalized earning power is roughly 8.5-9 billion. Therefore, Charter shares are trading at 15 times economic earnings and 12 times earnings thru Lbrda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Munger_Disciple Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 Is SpaceX , musk a deadly risky to charter shareholders? https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/06/15/spacex-inches-closer-to-a-16-billion-fcc-payday.aspx "With its Starlink satellites orbiting so much closer to Earth, though, SpaceX is promising latency "below 20 milliseconds," on par with latency from a wired internet provider on Earth. The FCC initially doubted this assertion, but last week the FCC confirmed it will give SpaceX a chance to prove its capability." Amazon's Kuiper just got FCC approval also. https://spacenews.com/amazons-kuiper-constellation-gets-fcc-approval/ I don't know how fast they could make cable obsolete. It kind of reminds me of that movie The Hummingbird Project about high speed trading where the main character focuses on laying down the fastest cable on earth and the competition focuses on the fastest wireless (which main character think is not possible). FWIW, SpaceX is going after rural customers w/o internet access or with very slow internet today in addition to commercial and military services like internet access to planes, trains and ships. It is more of a competition to companies like Viasat, Boeing, Hughes, Panasonic and GoGo that provide in flight connectivity or rural connectivity. The first goal for SpaceX is to get a big chunk of the $16B "rural broadband subsidy" pot from FCC. So it is also a threat to all the small rural telecoms that get rural broadband subsidies from the FCC today. I don't think Starlink is much of a risk to high speed cable/fiber connectivity. Starlink service will not be as fast or as low latency as a fast wired connection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vince Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 Is SpaceX , musk a deadly risky to charter shareholders? https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/06/15/spacex-inches-closer-to-a-16-billion-fcc-payday.aspx "With its Starlink satellites orbiting so much closer to Earth, though, SpaceX is promising latency "below 20 milliseconds," on par with latency from a wired internet provider on Earth. The FCC initially doubted this assertion, but last week the FCC confirmed it will give SpaceX a chance to prove its capability." Amazon's Kuiper just got FCC approval also. https://spacenews.com/amazons-kuiper-constellation-gets-fcc-approval/ I don't know how fast they could make cable obsolete. It kind of reminds me of that movie The Hummingbird Project about high speed trading where the main character focuses on laying down the fastest cable on earth and the competition focuses on the fastest wireless (which main character think is not possible). FWIW, SpaceX is going after rural customers w/o internet access or with very slow internet today in addition to commercial and military services like internet access to planes, trains and ships. It is more of a competition to companies like Viasat, Boeing, Hughes, Panasonic and GoGo that provide in flight connectivity or rural connectivity. The first goal for SpaceX is to get a big chunk of the $16B "rural broadband subsidy" pot from FCC. So it is also a threat to all the small rural telecoms that get rural broadband subsidies from the FCC today. I don't think Starlink is much of a risk to high speed cable/fiber connectivity. Starlink service will not be as fast or as low latency as a fast wired connection. Thanks for that post, I was about to type something very similar. The only thing that could significantly hurt this investment within the next 5-7 years is the gov't. Would be great to get some informative posts/links to this specific issue. I am re-reading cable cowboy just to get a better handle on the regulatory environment and decisions of previous decades. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted August 17, 2020 Share Posted August 17, 2020 https://yetanothervalueblog.com/2020/08/random-thoughts-on-cable-post-q2-earnings.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dcollon Posted August 17, 2020 Share Posted August 17, 2020 Thanks for posting Liberty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scorpioncapital Posted August 17, 2020 Share Posted August 17, 2020 Anyone know if Charter in USA is working on providing EV charging ports via their infrastructure like Virgin Media in the UK? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Munger_Disciple Posted August 17, 2020 Share Posted August 17, 2020 Anyone know if Charter in USA is working on providing EV charging ports via their infrastructure like Virgin Media in the UK? WTF??? Why should a broadband company provide (free or otherwise) EV charging ports? Thank God Charter doesn't do crap like that and waste shareholder money like Mike Fries at Liberty Global. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted August 17, 2020 Share Posted August 17, 2020 Anyone know if Charter in USA is working on providing EV charging ports via their infrastructure like Virgin Media in the UK? That’s the power companies job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwy000 Posted August 18, 2020 Share Posted August 18, 2020 Anyone know if Charter in USA is working on providing EV charging ports via their infrastructure like Virgin Media in the UK? That’s the power companies job. Nah, that's an advertising and real estate play. Look at things like Volta in the US. Giving away charging in exchange for advertising on the billboards. Mall operators and real estate owners want the chargers at their sites to make the property more attractive but you need a consolidator to make it an efficient play Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wabuffo Posted September 2, 2020 Share Posted September 2, 2020 Didn't know where to put this so am posting this here. Altice makes hostile offer for Canadian Cable Holding company Cogeco. Altice will sell the Canadian cable assets to Rogers - so this is really Altice going after US cable co, Atlantic Broadband (9th largest). https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20200902005626/en/Altice-USA-Presents-Offer-Acquire-Cogeco-Order Cable consolidation looks like it continues just below the top two (Comcast, Charter). I guess Mediacom is still out there, as is CableOne for Altice to continue to gobble up. wabuffo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Munger_Disciple Posted September 2, 2020 Share Posted September 2, 2020 Didn't know where to put this so am posting this here. Altice makes hostile offer for Canadian Cable Holding company Cogeco. Altice will sell the Canadian cable assets to Rogers - so this is really Altice going after US cable co, Atlantic Broadband (9th largest). https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20200902005626/en/Altice-USA-Presents-Offer-Acquire-Cogeco-Order Cable consolidation looks like it continues just below the top two (Comcast, Charter). I guess Mediacom is still out there, as is CableOne for Altice to continue to gobble up. wabuffo Altice/Rogers offer rejected by the controlling shareholder (the Audet family) and the board of directors: http://corpo.cogeco.com/cgo/en/press-room/press-releases/cogeco-and-cogeco-communications-boards-directors-reject-unsolicited-non-binding-takeover-proposal-altice-and-rogers/ It is a bizarre offer. They are essentially offering a massive premium (300%) to the controlling shareholder relative to subordinate voting shareholders. It is no surprise that it was rejected so quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NotSoWise Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 Since we have Tom Rutledge fully vested and GLIBA/ LBRDK coming merger.... what do you guys think is the end game for CHTR: - stand alone and growing mobile via MVNO, with Tom Rutledge selling his stake via public market at some point - sold to e.g Verizon - with Malone fully exiting - merged with e.g. Verizon - with Malone rolling his CHTR stake into the combined entity (or part rolling / part selling) Given his adventure with AT&T in the past, not sure he will roll his stake without control, but who knows... Edited: my mistake not John but Tom Rutledge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WayWardCloud Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 Since we have John R. fully vested and GLIBA/ LBRDK coming merger.... what do you guys think is the end game for CHTR: - stand alone and growing mobile via MVNO, with John R. selling his stake via public market at some point - sold to e.g Verizon - with Malone fully exiting - merged with e.g. Verizon - with Malone rolling his CHTR stake into the combined entity (or part rolling / part selling) Given his adventure with AT&T in the past, not sure he will roll his stake without control, but who knows... Who is John R.? I don't know if linking with a telco is necessarily coming up soon, given how advantageous their MVNO contract with Verizon is, but I do know that Charter is set to start paying taxes in 2022 which gives them a natural deadline to reshuffle things around within the next two years. Hopefully buying out Liberty's shares and the GCI Alaskan operations can serve that purpose. I personally think Charter and Comcast would be better off on their own for the next 3 or so years, letting the 3 telcos bare the capex necessary to deploy 5G on their own. I don't think consumers will accept to pay much more for 5G but telcos have to do the investment anyway to not get outdone by each other. Returns could be horrendous. Meanwhile Cable is done with its big investments and can just watch FCF pile up and fire up symetrical 10G/25G if anyone poses a threat (5G fixed, satellites, fiber outbuilders). Once 5G is done being deployed, it will make sense to merge and enjoy the synergies. Down the road, 5G might develop new usages such as IOT and self driving cars and end up making real money, who knows, but those futuristic expectations won't get monetized at scale nearly as fast as the rosy pictures painted by T, VZ and TMUS CEOs, if ever, so best stay out during the initial investment. Malone also mentioned a potential merger with Altice but said it didn't happen because neither Rutledge nor Drahi was willing to give up control. I don't even know if the regulator would allow it given they blocked Comcast from acquiring Time Warner Cable back in the days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NotSoWise Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 You are probably right that not much will happen at least for the next 12 months - it will be just compounding... We can park this topic for the time being. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gamecock-YT Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 Since we have Tom Rutledge fully vested and GLIBA/ LBRDK coming merger.... what do you guys think is the end game for CHTR: - stand alone and growing mobile via MVNO, with Tom Rutledge selling his stake via public market at some point - sold to e.g Verizon - with Malone fully exiting - merged with e.g. Verizon - with Malone rolling his CHTR stake into the combined entity (or part rolling / part selling) Given his adventure with AT&T in the past, not sure he will roll his stake without control, but who knows... Edited: my mistake not John but Tom Rutledge It's a good question, I think it will ultimately come down to how the mobile business takes off, whether they can take market share that'll force the hand of the mobile companies to react. With Rutledge fully vested he probably doesn't stand in the way of someone buying out Charter the way he did when SoftBank was sniffing around. WayWardCloud wisely points out the tax shelter expiring soon, which will probably get the ball rolling. Liberty also has a decent stake in LendingTree via GLIBA they'll need to do something with if CHTR does buy out the LBRDA stake. A few different ways they can go since they have GCI as an active business to include in a tax efficient transaction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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