Chalk bag Posted May 16, 2014 Author Share Posted May 16, 2014 Surprised that it popped so much on GSK marginal buy. Any updates on your guys' front? ~4-6% dividend yield on RoyaltyCo is a good start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vish_ram Posted June 3, 2014 Share Posted June 3, 2014 The split happened today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
undervalued Posted July 28, 2014 Share Posted July 28, 2014 THRX has been going down lately.. Close to 30% in a month. Anyone buying more or closing their positions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mankap Posted July 29, 2014 Share Posted July 29, 2014 I am watching and does not have a position in THRX. I am not able to get an handle on how to forecast THRX sales in coming years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CorpRaider Posted July 29, 2014 Share Posted July 29, 2014 Negative piece in barrons this weekend. Fyi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chalk bag Posted July 29, 2014 Author Share Posted July 29, 2014 No updates really, Breo and Anoro scripts data had been bad :( Guess one will just have to wait until GSK starts ramping the progress. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
undervalued Posted July 29, 2014 Share Posted July 29, 2014 Do you think this is a temporary issue which can be fix or a big issue where competition just have a better and cheaper drug? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chalk bag Posted July 29, 2014 Author Share Posted July 29, 2014 Do you think this is a temporary issue which can be fix or a big issue where competition just have a better and cheaper drug? Undervalued, I think it's still too early, but given Advair's lasting franchise into 2016 (when the patent to device expires), I don't see much incentive for GSK to cannibalize it full-swing w/ Breo & Anoro. I think the cocktail strategy makes sense, I think the market won't shrink, and I think Ellipta as a universal device has both economic and sticky appeal, but I am skeptical of THRX getting to the peak numbers any time soon. Meanwhile we get paid 5% dividend to wait, so why not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
undervalued Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 I added some more at $13ish. Anyone else adding more at these levels? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
undervalued Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 4th Q and full year earnings report are out http://investor.thrxinc.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=897054 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
undervalued Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Does anyone know why NASDAQ halted THRX just because of the discussion for supplemental New Drug Application? http://finance.yahoo.com/news/theravance-announces-trading-common-stock-110500181.html Nevermind, I found my answer here: http://seekingalpha.com/news/2380116-ad-comm-reviewing-breo-ellipta-expanded-label-trading-in-theravance-halted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
undervalued Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Approved for adults but not for adolescents. http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/03/19/gsk-breo-fda-idUSL2N0WL2EL20150319 THRX down 10% after hours to $16. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
undervalued Posted April 1, 2015 Share Posted April 1, 2015 Can someone give me a bear thesis for THRX at this current stage? I think there is a lot of tailwind and margin of safety at this price, especially if you're planning to hold it to the end of 2029. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Schwab711 Posted April 1, 2015 Share Posted April 1, 2015 Anyone have a copy of the PRO article "Classic Ben Graham"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jawn619 Posted April 1, 2015 Share Posted April 1, 2015 Can someone give me a bear thesis for THRX at this current stage? I think there is a lot of tailwind and margin of safety at this price, especially if you're planning to hold it to the end of 2029. can you explain the bull case? All i see is a shell of a company with debt from the TBPH spinoff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
undervalued Posted April 1, 2015 Share Posted April 1, 2015 Looking at this article from SA, http://seekingalpha.com/article/3039656-volatile-theravance-inc-offers-attractive-total-returns-potential. So currently GSK has about 7bill sales coming from Advair. Let say THRX is only selling about a third of that which is about 2.0b starting 2017.. with 15% royalties on that 2b, it will annually generates 300m of revenue. Let say sales goes flat until 2029 and annual expense is about 70mil, net income is about 230m for 15 years. This is just a rough estimate.. maybe totally off. Let me know if I am waaaay off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jawn619 Posted April 2, 2015 Share Posted April 2, 2015 Looking at this article from SA, http://seekingalpha.com/article/3039656-volatile-theravance-inc-offers-attractive-total-returns-potential. So currently GSK has about 7bill sales coming from Advair. Let say THRX is only selling about a third of that which is about 2.0b starting 2017.. with 15% royalties on that 2b, it will annually generates 300m of revenue. Let say sales goes flat until 2029 and annual expense is about 70mil, net income is about 230m for 15 years. This is just a rough estimate.. maybe totally off. Let me know if I am waaaay off. I don't know if you can assume the sales are flat until 2029. TBPH and GSK are partnering to bring the "triple" to market starting 2018. It's basically LABA + ICS (Advair, Breo, Symbicort, or Dulera) and a LAMA (Spiriva or Incruse). So I think the sales of the triple will cannibalize existing sales of the BREO and ADVAIR because it's a drug that only has to be taken once a day. And even if it did have net income of 230 for 15 years starting 2017, THRX's market cap right now is 1.8 Billion with 500 million in debt so it would have to spend the first few years just paying off the debt before shareholders saw anything. I don't see a big MOS here but maybe you could expand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rogermunibond Posted April 2, 2015 Share Posted April 2, 2015 My thinking on this is that first of all THRX owns 15% of the economic interest in the triple. So a baseline royalty of between 0.98% and 1.5% on sales. But also the idea behind splitting TBPH and THRX was that one would focus on royalty management and the other would focus on R&D of new pharma products. Now, they have separate boards and mgmts, but it seems an implication that should THRX establish sufficient cash flow coverage of the dividend in the next couple years, that they might consider issuing debt and buying additional interest in the triple. That might be trying run before walking since they're not yet able to cover the dividend but the trajectory looks to be there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
undervalued Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Looks like they hired a new CBO which makes the investor excited, http://finance.yahoo.com/news/theravance-inc-appoints-michael-faerm-200500662.html. Anyone know why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jawn619 Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Looks like they hired a new CBO which makes the investor excited, http://finance.yahoo.com/news/theravance-inc-appoints-michael-faerm-200500662.html. Anyone know why? I'm puzzled as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
krazeenyc Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Looks like they hired a new CBO which makes the investor excited, http://finance.yahoo.com/news/theravance-inc-appoints-michael-faerm-200500662.html. Anyone know why? I'm puzzled as well. The quantity of shares traded at the higher price explains things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
undervalued Posted September 8, 2015 Share Posted September 8, 2015 Oh man.. http://finance.yahoo.com/news/gsk-theravance-announce-results-summit-184000004.html. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
undervalued Posted September 16, 2015 Share Posted September 16, 2015 Pretty detail/interesting article about GSK pipeline http://seekingalpha.com/article/3510856-glaxosmithklines-respiratory-line-not-dead-at-all. Am I the only one following THRX now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
karthikpm Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 Pretty detail/interesting article about GSK pipeline http://seekingalpha.com/article/3510856-glaxosmithklines-respiratory-line-not-dead-at-all. Am I the only one following THRX now? I just started a small position. Significant risk of a blow up as I see it. Breo/ Anoro are not niche products . GSK will have to kill Advair to make these the new alternatives. If they succeed in doing so, it has significant upside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
undervalued Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 They just announced earnings and plans buy back. http://investor.thrxinc.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=939052 Theravance also announced today the acceleration of its capital return plan with a $150 million share repurchase plan effective through the end of 2016 that was approved by the company's Board of Directors, replacing its quarterly dividend. The company currently intends to repurchase its shares over this period through a combination of a tender offer and open market purchases, and may also repurchase shares through private transactions, exchange offers, additional tender offers or other means. The repurchase program will be funded using Theravance's working capital. The repurchase program may be suspended or discontinued at any time. Theravance had approximately 117.4 million shares of common stock outstanding as of October 27, 2015. Did they just replace the dividend with purchase program? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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