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very good discussion the last few days on this thread. congrats!

 

dwy000, why do you believe that the smaller two players don't have the wherewithal to be real competitors? i understand why they are financially disadvantaged. but in a high fixed cost, low variable cost business with high barriers to exit and high sunk costs. but i don't understand why they cannot make the business unattractive for everyone else.

 

case studies in france and japan are worrisome when it comes to price-aggressive entrants.

 

appreciate your thoughts...

 

Sorry, forgot to add, on France and Japan, I don't think this is much an issue.  The cost of spectrum and build out for a geography the size of the US just doesn't work with $30-40 monthly bills.  I think the current spectrum auction is at like $50bn now.  And that doesn't include the cost to integrate and implement that spectrum.  It's easier in Japan where the area is smaller than California.  I don't know much about the French system.  It's a larger area than Japan but still a fraction of the US - and with really only 1 major city of significance.  I'm guessing the government plays a bigger role there and players have more than ROI to deal with.  Again, just my thought and opinion.  I could be very wrong.

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Anyone following the auction?  Any gossip to report?

 

I just watch the totals roll upwards but don't have any more gossip.  Lowell had some interesting comments at the Citi conference that a lot of the gossip and assumptions made about the auction were wrong and people will be surprised when they see the results (I'm paraphrasing of course)

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Don't know! But the way it was phrased (just reading the transcript so no body language) was the impression that all those people who thought the Verizon was way overpaying and taking on ridiculous cost they'll never get back would be proven wrong.

 

Again, this is just presumption by me but he may have been subtly referencing a report by one of the analysts (I think Moffett - who is head and shoulders above anyone else in this industry) estimating what it would take for Verizon to get a return on it's investment in the auction - and of course it required crazy customers and rates.

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  • 1 year later...

I just activated a new Republic Wireless phone (for $13/month) and also have a Google Fi phone ($25/month) with no contracts.  I'm fairly impressed and itching to cancel my longstanding Verizon contract and save $1,000 a year.  I think a lot of lower income Americans have already adopted this MVNO movement.  It seems to me that Verizon and AT+T will have a tough time continuing to march revenue upwards.  Anyone have any experience or care to weigh in or disagree?

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Wife just got Google Fi phone and account. I'm gonna see how she likes the experience and maybe switch my T-Mobile to Google Fi too. Though buying Fi phone means that it takes ~10 months for savings to pay back - that's the drawback of Fi.

 

A friend who's Mr. Money Mustache has H2O ( http://www.h2owirelessnow.com/ ) on Blu phone and is happy with that. We prefer Fi/T-Mobile, since we travel internationally and Fi/T-Mobile gives you free data/SMS through the globe + rather cheap calls too.

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I'm just curious if anyone here is invested in ATT or Verizon and does not see this development as a major threat to Verizon/AT+T's revenue.  I've always been reluctant to apply my own anecdotal experience to the investment arena, but in this area, I can't see how many people, especially young ones, will pay the "full fare" for cell service going forward. But maybe I'm wrong. Revenue has not declined yet, and the market doesn't seem to see anything wrong, but personally I'd see this as a concerning development for the future. 

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I've been invested in Verizon for quite a while now and what was originally a defensive move has actually worked out really well.  Between the big, fat giant dividends, the spin outs and price appreciation it has been a huge winner.

 

But to your point, there is always activity at the low end of the price spectrum.  Sprint and T-Mobile have been cheaper (sometimes hugely so) for a long, long time now and have largely taken customer from each other as opposed to the leads.  The leaders own the business market and high end users - and probably always will.  They also offer multiple products with fios/directv, internet, home phone.

 

The MVNO movement has been an endless churn of startups and failures.  At the end of the day, you need to own the spectrum or you are at the mercy of those who do.  The big 4 will give up the high churn, high marketing cost, low value customers to the MVNO's in exchange for volume (esp Sprint who desperately needs the money).

 

MVNO's will come and go.  My thesis on Verizon is that there will ultimately be 3 large players in US wireless.  It simply can't support 4 given network costs.  So those 3 who own the spectrum and the network will be an oligopoly with a massive moat (so massive the biggest risk is the gov't dictating pricing).  The only thing that will change that is a new technology that displaces current cellular based.  That's a long time and lots of money away.

 

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  • 6 months later...

I am invested in T, VZ, LVLT and CTL. All of them are Tier 1 carriers, they own the landlines, especially fiber (bandwith). Whatever happens in the market, the wires are needed and their usage will be paid from someone.The political situation seems to me, that they will not be paid from the owners by themselves, to service all others.

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Wife just got Google Fi phone and account. I'm gonna see how she likes the experience and maybe switch my T-Mobile to Google Fi too. Though buying Fi phone means that it takes ~10 months for savings to pay back - that's the drawback of Fi.

 

A friend who's Mr. Money Mustache has H2O ( http://www.h2owirelessnow.com/ ) on Blu phone and is happy with that. We prefer Fi/T-Mobile, since we travel internationally and Fi/T-Mobile gives you free data/SMS through the globe + rather cheap calls too.

 

I just activated a new Republic Wireless phone (for $13/month) and also have a Google Fi phone ($25/month) with no contracts.  I'm fairly impressed and itching to cancel my longstanding Verizon contract and save $1,000 a year.  I think a lot of lower income Americans have already adopted this MVNO movement.  It seems to me that Verizon and AT+T will have a tough time continuing to march revenue upwards.  Anyone have any experience or care to weigh in or disagree?

 

I switched to Project Fi 3 months ago and love it here in NYC.

 

I was on a family plan with 10GB of data, unlimited talk/text, with a military discount for $65 a month through Verizon's edge plan. Also through edge, my phone would've been another $35/month had it not been subsidized through the sign-up deal for the edge plan so when I got my next phone I'd be paying $100/month for the same plan.

 

Moving to project Fi on a 2GB plan (same pro-rata data allocation from my family plan) was ~$46 with all taxes/fees included. But, I've never hit the 2GB mark. In fact, this month I'm at 1.6 and with two days left to go and that's the closest I've gone. I've been refunded for the unused data and my monthly payment has actually only cost me around $35-40 per month - So I save $25-30/month on the plan AND have international coverage at no additional fee (have used it in Canada, Iceland, Mexico, Belize, and Honduras so far with no extra fees compared the the $10/day my friends paid in Iceland).

 

Further, to the comment about the "payback period" on paying for your phone, I get 0% financing through Synchrony's agreement with the Google store for 2 years. End result, I pay $36/month for my phone just like I would through Verizon's leasing program, but I own it and can re-sell it at any time. I also don't have to turn it in, after paying for it for 18-24 months, when upgrading. It's my understanding that the major carriers basically make you pay for you phone now outside of sign-up bonus offers.

 

I don't know how popular Google Fi would be outside of cities like NYC where public WiFi is ubiquitous, but I know that I have a friend in St. Louis and a friend in New Orleans who have both switched, seen many board members here make the switch, and have family members and friends who are considering it after hearing my experience.

 

It might take a few years before this starts majorly impacting phone carriers, but if you're in a city covered by WiFi, Sprint, or T-Mobile, the major carriers aren't really competitive on price at all...

 

 

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Wife just got Google Fi phone and account. I'm gonna see how she likes the experience and maybe switch my T-Mobile to Google Fi too. Though buying Fi phone means that it takes ~10 months for savings to pay back - that's the drawback of Fi.

 

A friend who's Mr. Money Mustache has H2O ( http://www.h2owirelessnow.com/ ) on Blu phone and is happy with that. We prefer Fi/T-Mobile, since we travel internationally and Fi/T-Mobile gives you free data/SMS through the globe + rather cheap calls too.

 

I just activated a new Republic Wireless phone (for $13/month) and also have a Google Fi phone ($25/month) with no contracts.  I'm fairly impressed and itching to cancel my longstanding Verizon contract and save $1,000 a year.  I think a lot of lower income Americans have already adopted this MVNO movement.  It seems to me that Verizon and AT+T will have a tough time continuing to march revenue upwards.  Anyone have any experience or care to weigh in or disagree?

 

I switched to Project Fi 3 months ago and love it here in NYC.

 

I was on a family plan with 10GB of data, unlimited talk/text, with a military discount for $65 a month through Verizon's edge plan. Also through edge, my phone would've been another $35/month had it not been subsidized through the sign-up deal for the edge plan so when I got my next phone I'd be paying $100/month for the same plan.

 

Moving to project Fi on a 2GB plan (same pro-rata data allocation from my family plan) was ~$46 with all taxes/fees included. But, I've never hit the 2GB mark. In fact, this month I'm at 1.6 and with two days left to go and that's the closest I've gone. I've been refunded for the unused data and my monthly payment has actually only cost me around $35-40 per month - So I save $25-30/month on the plan AND have international coverage at no additional fee (have used it in Canada, Iceland, Mexico, Belize, and Honduras so far with no extra fees compared the the $10/day my friends paid in Iceland).

 

Further, to the comment about the "payback period" on paying for your phone, I get 0% financing through Synchrony's agreement with the Google store for 2 years. End result, I pay $36/month for my phone just like I would through Verizon's leasing program, but I own it and can re-sell it at any time. I also don't have to turn it in, after paying for it for 18-24 months, when upgrading. It's my understanding that the major carriers basically make you pay for you phone now outside of sign-up bonus offers.

 

I don't know how popular Google Fi would be outside of cities like NYC where public WiFi is ubiquitous, but I know that I have a friend in St. Louis and a friend in New Orleans who have both switched, seen many board members here make the switch, and have family members and friends who are considering it after hearing my experience.

 

It might take a few years before this starts majorly impacting phone carriers, but if you're in a city covered by WiFi, Sprint, or T-Mobile, the major carriers aren't really competitive on price at all...

 

I live in NYC too. How's the reliability/performance vs Verizon for data and voice. Thanks.

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Wife just got Google Fi phone and account. I'm gonna see how she likes the experience and maybe switch my T-Mobile to Google Fi too. Though buying Fi phone means that it takes ~10 months for savings to pay back - that's the drawback of Fi.

 

A friend who's Mr. Money Mustache has H2O ( http://www.h2owirelessnow.com/ ) on Blu phone and is happy with that. We prefer Fi/T-Mobile, since we travel internationally and Fi/T-Mobile gives you free data/SMS through the globe + rather cheap calls too.

 

I just activated a new Republic Wireless phone (for $13/month) and also have a Google Fi phone ($25/month) with no contracts.  I'm fairly impressed and itching to cancel my longstanding Verizon contract and save $1,000 a year.  I think a lot of lower income Americans have already adopted this MVNO movement.  It seems to me that Verizon and AT+T will have a tough time continuing to march revenue upwards.  Anyone have any experience or care to weigh in or disagree?

 

I switched to Project Fi 3 months ago and love it here in NYC.

 

I was on a family plan with 10GB of data, unlimited talk/text, with a military discount for $65 a month through Verizon's edge plan. Also through edge, my phone would've been another $35/month had it not been subsidized through the sign-up deal for the edge plan so when I got my next phone I'd be paying $100/month for the same plan.

 

Moving to project Fi on a 2GB plan (same pro-rata data allocation from my family plan) was ~$46 with all taxes/fees included. But, I've never hit the 2GB mark. In fact, this month I'm at 1.6 and with two days left to go and that's the closest I've gone. I've been refunded for the unused data and my monthly payment has actually only cost me around $35-40 per month - So I save $25-30/month on the plan AND have international coverage at no additional fee (have used it in Canada, Iceland, Mexico, Belize, and Honduras so far with no extra fees compared the the $10/day my friends paid in Iceland).

 

Further, to the comment about the "payback period" on paying for your phone, I get 0% financing through Synchrony's agreement with the Google store for 2 years. End result, I pay $36/month for my phone just like I would through Verizon's leasing program, but I own it and can re-sell it at any time. I also don't have to turn it in, after paying for it for 18-24 months, when upgrading. It's my understanding that the major carriers basically make you pay for you phone now outside of sign-up bonus offers.

 

I don't know how popular Google Fi would be outside of cities like NYC where public WiFi is ubiquitous, but I know that I have a friend in St. Louis and a friend in New Orleans who have both switched, seen many board members here make the switch, and have family members and friends who are considering it after hearing my experience.

 

It might take a few years before this starts majorly impacting phone carriers, but if you're in a city covered by WiFi, Sprint, or T-Mobile, the major carriers aren't really competitive on price at all...

 

I live in NYC too. How's the reliability/performance vs Verizon for data and voice. Thanks.

 

I've had 0 issues in the three to four months I've used it. During that time I used data in the countries mentioned above. I've used voice/data in St. Louis, Miami, New York City, and Vermont without issue. In more rural areas I get fewer bars, but haven't really found myself without coverage yet and anytime you have WiFi fixes that problem.

 

 

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  • 1 year later...

https://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/news/2018/08/22/verizon-throttled-unlimited-data-calif-fire-department-during-wildfire/1059486002/

 

Verizon throttled 'unlimited' data of Calif. fire department during Mendocino wildfire

 

 

Bowden said in the declaration, first reported by "Ars Technica", that the Santa Clara County Fire Department had an unlimited data plan with Verizon but internet service slowed to 1/200th normal speed after the SCCFD reached 25 gigabytes of data usage.

 

Verizon refused to lift the restrictions on data speeds until the fire department upgraded to a more expensive service plan, Bowden said

 

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https://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/news/2018/08/22/verizon-throttled-unlimited-data-calif-fire-department-during-wildfire/1059486002/

 

Verizon throttled 'unlimited' data of Calif. fire department during Mendocino wildfire

 

 

Bowden said in the declaration, first reported by "Ars Technica", that the Santa Clara County Fire Department had an unlimited data plan with Verizon but internet service slowed to 1/200th normal speed after the SCCFD reached 25 gigabytes of data usage.

 

Verizon refused to lift the restrictions on data speeds until the fire department upgraded to a more expensive service plan, Bowden said

 

Not a good look. There were better ways for Verizon to handle that

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  • 1 year later...
  • 2 months later...

Verizon to buy wireless services provider Tracfone in $6.25 billion deal

 

Tracfone is the largest reseller of wireless services in the US, serving approximately 21 million subscribers through a network of over 90,000 retail locations nationwide. A longtime partner of Verizon, more than 13 million Tracfone subscribers currently rely on Verizon’s wireless network through an existing wholesale agreement.

 

https://www.verizon.com/about/news/verizon-to-acquire-tracfone

 

The consideration for the transaction will include $3.125 billion in cash and $3.125 billion in Verizon common stock, subject to customary adjustments, at closing.The agreement also includes up to an additional $650 million in future cash consideration related to the achievement of certain performance measures and other commercial arrangements.

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  • 5 months later...

Looks like a bond substitute type investment... the cash will need to be deployed somewhere.

 

Verizon: industry leader, safe, positioned well for future, attractive and growing dividend, cheapish. And a new vertical for BRK.

 

Last 13F the big news was the big pharma basket.

 

Exited airlines and shrunk financial exposure. Redeployed into big pharma, telecom and big oil.

 

Diversification; industry leaders.

 

What not to like :-)

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My guess is he expects 8-9% pre-tax on these newer baskets of deals, maybe a little more in Japan. In this interest rate environment and given BRK's cost of funds, it's probably a good idea - better than bonds, that's for sure.

 

But probably not going to make any of us rich.

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My guess is he expects 8-9% pre-tax on these newer baskets of deals, maybe a little more in Japan. In this interest rate environment and given BRK's cost of funds, it's probably a good idea - better than bonds, that's for sure.

 

But probably not going to make any of us rich.

 

8-9% at relatively low risk, is fine with me, they just need to find more of them

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