brendanb22 Posted July 24, 2016 Share Posted July 24, 2016 Anybody still following Conduril? Currently trading ~40% of NCAV. Really interesting oppty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sys Posted July 25, 2016 Share Posted July 25, 2016 is cnduf still a traded entity? and if so how widely does it vary from the portuguese shares? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
writser Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 Anybody still following Conduril? Currently trading ~40% of NCAV. Really interesting oppty. If I understand the latest semi-annual correctly they have a Angolean receivable of 88m guaranteed by the Portuguese government that is to be paid out soon, approximately 49 eur / share. There is also a big overhang in the orderbook. A few years ago the stock was in a similar situation and traded up heavily afterwards. BV ~118 eur / share, 5 yr avg earnings ~13 eur, trading around 34 eur. Obviously this is a risky play: leveraged, exposure to dubious third world countries & currencies, exposure to commodities, cash flow generation is very choppy, balance sheet is not rock-solid & limited disclosure but it is very cheap. This might be a decent time to pick up some shares. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwoCitiesCapital Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 What broker have people had success buying the actual shares with? I'd rather not do the ADR, but IB doesn't seem to have CDU available. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oddballstocks Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 What broker have people had success buying the actual shares with? I'd rather not do the ADR, but IB doesn't seem to have CDU available. Fidelity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skanjete Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 Anybody still following Conduril? Currently trading ~40% of NCAV. Really interesting oppty. If I understand the latest semi-annual correctly they have a Angolean receivable of 88m guaranteed by the Portuguese government that is to be paid out soon, approximately 49 eur / share. There is also a big overhang in the orderbook. A few years ago the stock was in a similar situation and traded up heavily afterwards. BV ~118 eur / share, 5 yr avg earnings ~13 eur, trading around 34 eur. Obviously this is a risky play: leveraged, exposure to dubious third world countries & currencies, exposure to commodities, cash flow generation is very choppy, balance sheet is not rock-solid & limited disclosure but it is very cheap. This might be a decent time to pick up some shares. May I ask : where do you find the interim results? I couldn't find it on the company's website. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
writser Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 Conduril has been getting hammered lately. Market cap is now only 52m EUR. I don't really understand why as I think some good things happened lately: - On their balance sheet 88m is a receivable from the "Angola Highway Reconstruction Division". This payment is guaranteed by the Portuguese state and should have hit their bank account by now (or will arrive soon). Cash will be used to pay off debt. - Another 88m is in Angolan government bonds - not exactly a dream holding but should be convertible into cash, let's say at a 20% haircut. This easily covers long- & short-term debt. What are you left with, pro-forma? - A modestly 1.6x levered balance sheet. - 225m in current assets vs. 125m in total liabilities or a NCAV of ~55 EUR per share. - Tangible book value of ~110 EUR per share. This is an insider-owned family business. There is no dilution. Average ROE for the past 7 years was ~20%. Average annual earnings were 15 EUR per share over this period. Not bad for a Portuguese construction company during the Euro crisis! Conduril has paid out a (granted, small) dividend each of these years. The rise in oil prices should mean good things for their Angolan business. They have a backlog of 300-400m EUR. If shares double this is still extremely cheap. Key issue is that FCF generation is very lumpy and has been lacking the past few years. But, as I pointed out above, I believe a good amount of cash is coming their way and they have enough options to generate more cash if they so desire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
awindenberger Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Conduril has been getting hammered lately. Market cap is now only 52m EUR. I don't really understand why as I think some good things happened lately: - On their balance sheet 88m is a receivable from the "Angola Highway Reconstruction Division". This payment is guaranteed by the Portuguese state and should have hit their bank account by now (or will arrive soon). Cash will be used to pay off debt. - Another 88m is in Angolan government bonds - not exactly a dream holding but should be convertible into cash, let's say at a 20% haircut. Whats your basis for this assumption? I've been looking for H1 2016 results, but the company doesnt seem to do press releases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hielko Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 They do release interim results, just not online. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muscleman Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Does anyone have their past financial reports? I'd like to take a look but couldn't find any on the website. I can PM you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brendanb22 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Conduril has been getting hammered lately. Market cap is now only 52m EUR. I don't really understand why as I think some good things happened lately: - On their balance sheet 88m is a receivable from the "Angola Highway Reconstruction Division". This payment is guaranteed by the Portuguese state and should have hit their bank account by now (or will arrive soon). Cash will be used to pay off debt. - Another 88m is in Angolan government bonds - not exactly a dream holding but should be convertible into cash, let's say at a 20% haircut. This easily covers long- & short-term debt. What are you left with, pro-forma? - A modestly 1.6x levered balance sheet. - 225m in current assets vs. 125m in total liabilities or a NCAV of ~55 EUR per share. - Tangible book value of ~110 EUR per share. This is an insider-owned family business. There is no dilution. Average ROE for the past 7 years was ~20%. Average annual earnings were 15 EUR per share over this period. Not bad for a Portuguese construction company during the Euro crisis! Conduril has paid out a (granted, small) dividend each of these years. The rise in oil prices should mean good things for their Angolan business. They have a backlog of 300-400m EUR. If shares double this is still extremely cheap. Key issue is that FCF generation is very lumpy and has been lacking the past few years. But, as I pointed out above, I believe a good amount of cash is coming their way and they have enough options to generate more cash if they so desire. What leads you to believe that the $88m receivable should have been received or will be soon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oddballstocks Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Conduril has been getting hammered lately. Market cap is now only 52m EUR. I don't really understand why as I think some good things happened lately: - On their balance sheet 88m is a receivable from the "Angola Highway Reconstruction Division". This payment is guaranteed by the Portuguese state and should have hit their bank account by now (or will arrive soon). Cash will be used to pay off debt. - Another 88m is in Angolan government bonds - not exactly a dream holding but should be convertible into cash, let's say at a 20% haircut. This easily covers long- & short-term debt. What are you left with, pro-forma? - A modestly 1.6x levered balance sheet. - 225m in current assets vs. 125m in total liabilities or a NCAV of ~55 EUR per share. - Tangible book value of ~110 EUR per share. This is an insider-owned family business. There is no dilution. Average ROE for the past 7 years was ~20%. Average annual earnings were 15 EUR per share over this period. Not bad for a Portuguese construction company during the Euro crisis! Conduril has paid out a (granted, small) dividend each of these years. The rise in oil prices should mean good things for their Angolan business. They have a backlog of 300-400m EUR. If shares double this is still extremely cheap. Key issue is that FCF generation is very lumpy and has been lacking the past few years. But, as I pointed out above, I believe a good amount of cash is coming their way and they have enough options to generate more cash if they so desire. What leads you to believe that the $88m receivable should have been received or will be soon? The company is interesting, they tried to go private, but their public regulator wouldn't let them. They are a grudingly public company. I've found their directors to be very helpful and transparent. They can be emailed in Portuguese or English. Oddly they were more forthright in English (at the time I had a Brazilian co-worker who helped me write my emails, I can't speak Portuguese). I know some people who've met management. This is one of those stories where what you read online is about 65% of the full story. When I discovered the other 35% I realized it was better than I could have ever imagined. It's a weird company, they have business in an area people tend to avoid. Cash is lumpy, but given everything I've read, and all the people I've talked to I'm confident in holding this. If it ran to 120 EUR I'd be a seller, but right now I'm hanging tight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whiterose Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Does anyone have the H1 2016 report and is willing to share it via PM? Many thanks in advance! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
awindenberger Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Does anyone have the H1 2016 report and is willing to share it via PM? Many thanks in advance! I'd love to see it as well please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
awindenberger Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Conduril has been getting hammered lately. Market cap is now only 52m EUR. I don't really understand why as I think some good things happened lately: - On their balance sheet 88m is a receivable from the "Angola Highway Reconstruction Division". This payment is guaranteed by the Portuguese state and should have hit their bank account by now (or will arrive soon). Cash will be used to pay off debt. - Another 88m is in Angolan government bonds - not exactly a dream holding but should be convertible into cash, let's say at a 20% haircut. This easily covers long- & short-term debt. What are you left with, pro-forma? - A modestly 1.6x levered balance sheet. - 225m in current assets vs. 125m in total liabilities or a NCAV of ~55 EUR per share. - Tangible book value of ~110 EUR per share. This is an insider-owned family business. There is no dilution. Average ROE for the past 7 years was ~20%. Average annual earnings were 15 EUR per share over this period. Not bad for a Portuguese construction company during the Euro crisis! Conduril has paid out a (granted, small) dividend each of these years. The rise in oil prices should mean good things for their Angolan business. They have a backlog of 300-400m EUR. If shares double this is still extremely cheap. Key issue is that FCF generation is very lumpy and has been lacking the past few years. But, as I pointed out above, I believe a good amount of cash is coming their way and they have enough options to generate more cash if they so desire. What leads you to believe that the $88m receivable should have been received or will be soon? The company is interesting, they tried to go private, but their public regulator wouldn't let them. They are a grudingly public company. I've found their directors to be very helpful and transparent. They can be emailed in Portuguese or English. Oddly they were more forthright in English (at the time I had a Brazilian co-worker who helped me write my emails, I can't speak Portuguese). I know some people who've met management. This is one of those stories where what you read online is about 65% of the full story. When I discovered the other 35% I realized it was better than I could have ever imagined. It's a weird company, they have business in an area people tend to avoid. Cash is lumpy, but given everything I've read, and all the people I've talked to I'm confident in holding this. If it ran to 120 EUR I'd be a seller, but right now I'm hanging tight. Thanks for the additional info! Why would their regulator not allow them to go private? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hielko Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Does anyone have their past financial reports? I'd like to take a look but couldn't find any on the website. I can PM you. You can find their annual reports here on their website: http://www.conduril.pt/en/grupoprestacaocontas.php PM me if you want the latest interim report Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
namo Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 They can be emailed in Portuguese or English. Oddly they were more forthright in English (at the time I had a Brazilian co-worker who helped me write my emails, I can't speak Portuguese). The one time I emailed them (a year and half ago, I think), I didn't get a reply. :( It was in English. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oddballstocks Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Conduril has been getting hammered lately. Market cap is now only 52m EUR. I don't really understand why as I think some good things happened lately: - On their balance sheet 88m is a receivable from the "Angola Highway Reconstruction Division". This payment is guaranteed by the Portuguese state and should have hit their bank account by now (or will arrive soon). Cash will be used to pay off debt. - Another 88m is in Angolan government bonds - not exactly a dream holding but should be convertible into cash, let's say at a 20% haircut. This easily covers long- & short-term debt. What are you left with, pro-forma? - A modestly 1.6x levered balance sheet. - 225m in current assets vs. 125m in total liabilities or a NCAV of ~55 EUR per share. - Tangible book value of ~110 EUR per share. This is an insider-owned family business. There is no dilution. Average ROE for the past 7 years was ~20%. Average annual earnings were 15 EUR per share over this period. Not bad for a Portuguese construction company during the Euro crisis! Conduril has paid out a (granted, small) dividend each of these years. The rise in oil prices should mean good things for their Angolan business. They have a backlog of 300-400m EUR. If shares double this is still extremely cheap. Key issue is that FCF generation is very lumpy and has been lacking the past few years. But, as I pointed out above, I believe a good amount of cash is coming their way and they have enough options to generate more cash if they so desire. What leads you to believe that the $88m receivable should have been received or will be soon? The company is interesting, they tried to go private, but their public regulator wouldn't let them. They are a grudingly public company. I've found their directors to be very helpful and transparent. They can be emailed in Portuguese or English. Oddly they were more forthright in English (at the time I had a Brazilian co-worker who helped me write my emails, I can't speak Portuguese). I know some people who've met management. This is one of those stories where what you read online is about 65% of the full story. When I discovered the other 35% I realized it was better than I could have ever imagined. It's a weird company, they have business in an area people tend to avoid. Cash is lumpy, but given everything I've read, and all the people I've talked to I'm confident in holding this. If it ran to 120 EUR I'd be a seller, but right now I'm hanging tight. Thanks for the additional info! Why would their regulator not allow them to go private? They claimed they had too many public shareholders and it would be unfair to them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pelagic Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 What broker have people had success buying the actual shares with? I'd rather not do the ADR, but IB doesn't seem to have CDU available. Fidelity. What ticker did you find it under with Fidelity, I've tried a few different ones with no luck so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oddballstocks Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 What broker have people had success buying the actual shares with? I'd rather not do the ADR, but IB doesn't seem to have CDU available. Fidelity. What ticker did you find it under with Fidelity, I've tried a few different ones with no luck so far. CDU:PT It trades via their international trading platform on the Portuguese exchange. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bonkers Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Does anyone own this more than 10 000 EURs worth? The trading volumes are non-existent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
writser Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Sure, I do, and others too. There has been an offer for 7000 shares in the orderbook for months. Conduril is hardly traded but if you want to you can buy a decent chunk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hielko Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Does anyone own this more than 10 000 EURs worth? The trading volumes are non-existent. Me :). Just because something doesn't trade on most days doesn't mean that it isn't possible to buy a meaningful position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ukvalueinvestment Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Would you mind telling us how? i.e., one big order at level, order at best, RFQ, dribbled in in small sizes ...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hielko Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Would you mind telling us how? i.e., one big order at level, order at best, RFQ, dribbled in in small sizes ...? y Just watch the order book and buy when liquidity appears. For example, now 7000 shares are available at 34.75 euro. So if you have a quarter million laying around... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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