Gregmal Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 High level people in the US arent held accountable at all(not that Im saying Ma needed to be held accountable, I dont know). I'd almost prefer a China level system in some cases, if we're going to make the comparison. I'm all against lockdowns and especially the way its been done. But if you are going to do it, do it hard for 4-6 weeks and put a bullet in whoever doesnt listen like China did. Problem solved. The lockdown is the US is comparable to so many other things that we do wrong, and its because of this half assed, appearance only type approach we have. Theres no excuse to be on what? Week 40 of lockdowns in California? IMO China has its flaws as we do, but they get results. Theres an unbelievable American arrogance to the "we do it right cuz DEMOCRACY, and everyone else is wrong" approach. Democracy isnt always the answer. Same as Ive said about todays surveillance and technology. If the government wants to read my emails and text...go ahead. But they better keep me safe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kh812000 Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 The CA/WA/NY lockdowns are a real joke by their socialist "democrat" leaders. Its obvious from the traffic patterns people are traveling around everywhere visiting friends, doing errands, shopping, etc. and covid cases are spiking everywhere. Yet certain businesses remain mandated closed such as restaurants, gyms.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fareastwarriors Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Focus back on BABA people. :-X Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cameronfen Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Focus back on BABA people. :-X I know you want everyone to focus on BABA, but seriously there is no equivalence between the CCP and the American government morally. In terms of getting things done maybe you could say the CCP is better. Even though I’m ambivalent in my opinion of the CCP from my previous post, I feel like people saying Washington is just as bad morally as Xi really need to hear pushback. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Focus back on BABA people. :-X I know you want everyone to focus on BABA, but seriously there is no equivalence between the CCP and the American government morally. In terms of getting things done maybe you could say the CCP is better. Even though I’m ambivalent in my opinion of the CCP from my previous post, I feel like people saying Washington is just as bad morally as Xi really need to hear pushback. Agreed on this. However, I think it is also noteworthy that the hard to quantify political risk was always there. It’s a repeat of 2018 when Tencent had issues getting games approved and the famous (in China) actress Fan BingBing disappeared for 4 month etc. So in my opinion, not much has changed it‘s now just in everyone face until it blows over (usually). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clutch Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Investment wise, not just with BABA, but the main issue I see is the unpredictable nature of government intervention. One extreme but possible example -- they might decide to nationalize big tech companies. Note: they have already been nationalizing a number of smaller tech companies. Would they care about minor shareholders if they decide to do so? Literally, they can do whatever the fuck they want and not sure I'd want to deal with such random risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clutch Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Focus back on BABA people. :-X I know you want everyone to focus on BABA, but seriously there is no equivalence between the CCP and the American government morally. In terms of getting things done maybe you could say the CCP is better. Even though I’m ambivalent in my opinion of the CCP from my previous post, I feel like people saying Washington is just as bad morally as Xi really need to hear pushback. Not just that, I also find it ironic to see those who praise CCP while criticizing their own US government. If you were a Chinese national doing the same thing in China (criticizing their own Chinese government), you'd be censored for sure and possibly arrested... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
abyli Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Focus back on BABA people. :-X I know you want everyone to focus on BABA, but seriously there is no equivalence between the CCP and the American government morally. In terms of getting things done maybe you could say the CCP is better. Even though I’m ambivalent in my opinion of the CCP from my previous post, I feel like people saying Washington is just as bad morally as Xi really need to hear pushback. Not just that, I also find it ironic to see those who praise CCP while criticizing their own US government. If you were a Chinese national doing the same thing in China (criticizing their own Chinese government), you'd be censored for sure and possibly arrested... Yeah, they have no clue what they are talking about... So naive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SharperDingaan Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Folks, you do not have to put your money into Asian companies. You just have to recognize that should you CHOOSE to do so, you are investing in a different culture, with different 'rules'. If you are not OK with that, don't invest there. Corruption comes in many forms, and is endemic to all economies. We are simply 'used to' whatever is dominant where we live. In most places it's just more 'refined', in other places - not so much. BABA has a very attractive franchise, but it also has significant 'off balance sheet' liabilities. Most would argue that it is being 'restructured' behind a bamboo curtain, and that it will emerge very different from what went in. Nothing wrong with that, but expecting 'no change' is pretty ridiculous. SD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 So apparently just another American media made hoax that Ma is "missing"...not surprising. Like anywhere else, understand the rules of engagement in the game and on the playing field with which you play. Rather simple. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cameronfen Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 So apparently just another American media made hoax that Ma is "missing"...not surprising. Like anywhere else, understand the rules of engagement in the game and on the playing field with which you play. Rather simple. I think (hope) Ma is fine, but I agree this is the game you play investing in China. I should say I am long here too and I don’t want to sound like the peanut gallery on the sidelines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
elliott Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Accounting schemes at Chinese tech giants with Kyle Bass, known for his objectivity in China matters still, may be worth watching Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fitz Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 I recently entered BABA on the Ant news and re-pricing. I think Alibaba has a business model on the commerce side more attractive than Amazon as they sell a far higher percentage from 3rd party where they are taking no inventory risks and is a capital lighter model. They also have much of the shipping network outsourced which is currently a strength, and has been by far the early winner allowing them to scale faster than JD or competitors, well have to see long term if this holds up, but has surely been an asset for scaling so rapidly. There data and advertising arm on Taobao is humming along and they get a large amount of search data that happen inside of their domains. I could be wrong but I think when you step back and look at where China wants to be, world leaders in tech, Alibaba is the crown jewel and I doubt they would try to permanently impair that franchise. All the the current pressure has surrounded Ant, which I wasn't a huge fan of how Jack divested that from BABA in the first place, maybe a little karma there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clutch Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 "Beijing orders Chinese media to censor coverage of Alibaba probe" https://www.ft.com/content/62fe82c5-b058-4dd0-bb15-e9428593f078 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattR Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 From Amazon's 10k: Shipping costs to receive products from our suppliers are included in our inventory and recognized as cost of sales upon sale of products to our customers.Shipping costs, which include sortation and delivery centers and transportation costs, were $27.7 billion and $37.9 billion in 2018 and 2019. I can't find the shipping costs for Alibaba anywhere. They have a company in the Alibaba Group that is resonsible for shipping but I can't find any financials on how much it costs them. Anyone has ideas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurgis Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 Spekulatius mentioned this on another thread, but posting it here too for posterity: https://lillianli.substack.com/p/alibaba-from-growth-to-value Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Is it considered easy money when a stock is so cheap it rallies 10% in two days because the founder is sighted? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Is it considered easy money when a stock is so cheap it rallies 10% in two days because the founder is sighted? It is not just Jack Ma showing up that bumped up the Stock, it is also the likely absence of Executive Action to force divesture of US investors that helped. For perspective , I was messing with CHL around the time the US trading and ownership was banned ( an epic sh$tshow ) and that stock is up >15% in HK markets, since that episode passed. Got out of CHL flat, but could have made a nice windfall if I had been able to hold on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lakesider Posted March 14, 2021 Share Posted March 14, 2021 Even excluding the ant stake this seems like such a bargain for a high quality company. Prove me wrong please before I buy more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
plato1976 Posted March 14, 2021 Share Posted March 14, 2021 By which metric do you think it is cheap? Even excluding the ant stake this seems like such a bargain for a high quality company. Prove me wrong please before I buy more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lakesider Posted March 15, 2021 Share Posted March 15, 2021 DCF, You have this high growth company trading at 22 forward PE. Revenues growing at 30% yoy profits 20%. Alot of investment still being expensed. The Cloud division just becoming profitable this quater, has the potentional to be Chinas AWS. The political situation reminds me of what Tencent was going through when China stopped aproving games. I see it as just a temporary issue, increased regulation will reduce the IPO valuation of ANT group but im not really including that when buying BABA. I think the Gov'ts problem is with Jack Ma and Ant not actually with Alibaba. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xerxes Posted March 15, 2021 Share Posted March 15, 2021 I think the Gov'ts problem is with Jack Ma and Ant not actually with Alibaba. Agreed. People need to differentiate between Alibaba, the tech champion, and Jack Ma, Sure Alibaba will get fined now and then so that it understands its boundaries, but don't believe Beijing intend to dismantle Alibaba or other tech champions, as long as they play within their sandbox. Financials are different beast. Firms like HNA (airline group) that spread like wildfire by leverage will be thing of the past. In a different era, Mao would have probably dismantled Alibaba and Tencent. In a different era, Deng Xianpang would have probably let HNA and the its like peers be. In the Xi era, they want the tech champions to play and lead innovation in Asia, but want ZERO risk to their financial system and want private sector to be apolitical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LC Posted March 15, 2021 Share Posted March 15, 2021 https://www.wsj.com/articles/beijing-asks-alibaba-to-shed-its-media-assets-11615809999 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurgis Posted March 15, 2021 Share Posted March 15, 2021 https://www.wsj.com/articles/beijing-asks-alibaba-to-shed-its-media-assets-11615809999 I did not have access to the whole article. However, if BABA has to shed media assets, this is a risk to shareholders. Sales/spinoffs could be done at "friendly" prices to "friendly" buyers without shareholders getting much (any) benefit. It could be ANT Financial redux. ::) TBH, I did not look at how much hit this could be. Perhaps not huge enough to worry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cubsfan Posted March 15, 2021 Share Posted March 15, 2021 ^ The fine is around $1B one time against $20B in recurring net income. It's a mere flesh wound. The commies made their point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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