bobozou Posted September 8, 2014 Share Posted September 8, 2014 does anyone know publicly traded companies that own alibaba, besides the typical 'yahoo' or 'softbank'? http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1577552/000119312514333674/d709111df1a.htm#toc709111_19 pg 250 has a list of large selling shareholders... but there's still around 10% shares not on that list, and I'm almost certain some of those shares are in other (perhaps non-us-listed) companies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simplefocus Posted September 8, 2014 Share Posted September 8, 2014 If I want to play Alibaba by buying Softbank stocks, would you buy Softbank traded in Tokyo or US OTC? If OTC, there are two OTC stocks (SFTBY and SFTBF) for Softbank, which one would you buy? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leeway Posted September 8, 2014 Share Posted September 8, 2014 I bought SFTBY because it is more liquid. SFTBF is 2x of price of SFTBY (which seems representing half of the share traded in Tokyo), but I am not sure what other differences. I think reading somewhere that SFTBF might incur high commission. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simplefocus Posted September 9, 2014 Share Posted September 9, 2014 Thanks. I loaded up on SFTBY today. There's a lot of interest in BABA and I won't be surprised if the market cap goes up to 200 bil the first day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest moneystockholder Posted September 9, 2014 Share Posted September 9, 2014 I'm not sure if this has been brought up yet, but just as an aside, if anyone is interested in how Alibaba started and learning a little bit more on Jack Ma, the documentary "Crocodile in the Yangtze" is worth watching. I saw it this weekend and it blew my mind. http://www.crocodileintheyangtze.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
txlaw Posted September 9, 2014 Share Posted September 9, 2014 I'm not sure if this has been brought up yet, but just as an aside, if anyone is interested in how Alibaba started and learning a little bit more on Jack Ma, the documentary "Crocodile in the Yangtze" is worth watching. I saw it this weekend and it blew my mind. http://www.crocodileintheyangtze.com +1 on this documentary. You can rent it on Vimeo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted September 10, 2014 Author Share Posted September 10, 2014 http://aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com/2014/09/alibabas-coming-out-party-valued-right.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ghost Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 When it comes to Alibaba I am pretty much a novice. I thought this video summed it up fairly quickly. It is the worlds largest 3D printer http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2014-09-16/what-is-alibaba-one-man-s-path-to-custom-made-bright-colored-pants#r=hp-lst Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest moneystockholder Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 When it comes to Alibaba I am pretty much a novice. I thought this video summed it up fairly quickly. It is the worlds largest 3D printer http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2014-09-16/what-is-alibaba-one-man-s-path-to-custom-made-bright-colored-pants#r=hp-lst Though unlike other 3D printers, this one has a virtual monopoly in the largest country in the world by population and the perfect market for eCommerce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fareastwarriors Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 Anyone planning to buy some post-IPO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yadayada Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 Im going to wait for the China correction. It will probably get cheap then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LesPaul Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 I'd like to start a position Friday, but I have a feeling we'll see the valuation get to $220B (or ~$90 per share, I believe) which just feels too high for me. Perhaps when the mania subsides (if media hype is indicative of what we'll see Friday) - I'll reexamine things and look to get in. Reason for edit: 'evaluation' became 'valuation' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fareastwarriors Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 Hopefully there will be a Facebook event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rpadebet Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 I am hoping for Softbank to spin this off to me on a tax free basis :P. Once can hope right! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeddyLampert Posted September 18, 2014 Share Posted September 18, 2014 Somehow though, I'd be surprised if the market isn't mispricing things somewhere between Softbank, Yahoo and China Dongxiang. How much of that is simply my enthusiasm talking though, I can't really be sure. Hey all, as it turns out, there's a VIC article posted today about China Dongxiang. It's a special situation investment that allows you to buy Alibaba at a big discount to its IPO price. Looks really interesting and very timely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobozou Posted September 18, 2014 Share Posted September 18, 2014 My 5-10 minute analysis seemed to show that Dongxiang is not that cheap at all... the WSJ article from a month ago seems to double count short-term investments and Dongxiang's investment in Alibaba... It appears to just be a chinese company that is overcapitalized, which owns a well-known sporting clothes brand (Kappa) that is bleeding sales at a rapid pace... and fairly value to boot (even before taking into account potential taxes on the sale of Alibaba shares) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wilson-TPC Posted September 18, 2014 Share Posted September 18, 2014 My 5-10 minute analysis seemed to show that Dongxiang is not that cheap at all... the WSJ article from a month ago seems to double count short-term investments and Dongxiang's investment in Alibaba... It appears to just be a chinese company that is overcapitalized, which owns a well-known sporting clothes brand (Kappa) that is bleeding sales at a rapid pace... and fairly value to boot (even before taking into account potential taxes on the sale of Alibaba shares) Care to breakout your math? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobozou Posted September 18, 2014 Share Posted September 18, 2014 http://investing.businessweek.com/research/stocks/financials/financials.asp?ticker=3818:HK&dataset=balanceSheet&period=Q¤cy=native 4,649 Cash/ST ($600M) 3,250 LT Investments ($420M) http://file.irasia.com/listco/hk/chinadongxiang/interim/2014/intrep.pdf (pg 23) As at 30 June 2014, the investment was stated at fair value of approximately USD398 million (equivalent to approximately RMB2,448 million) My interpretation is that the $400M of the Cash/ST/LT Investments already counts toward Alibaba http://online.wsj.com/articles/alibaba-investors-find-cheap-entry-through-dongxiang-heard-on-the-street-1408428237 The WSJ article suggests the stake is worth $600M at a $200B valuation for Alibaba, and that the OpCo is worth $200M Sum of Parts: 1) $200M for OpCo 3) $600M for alibaba 4) $620M for cash/ST/LT investments (ex Alibaba stake) Roughly $1.4B value, with current marketcap at $1.2B... that would also be excluding any potential taxes from sale of Alibaba stake... It doesn't look that attractive (unless you're betting on Alibaba post-IPO pop). Even if you were betting on pop, YHOO might be better way to do it, since its value seems more levered to Alibaba. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobozou Posted September 18, 2014 Share Posted September 18, 2014 Actually, I realized my own mistake... I was converting HKD instead of RMB 4,649 Cash/ST ($757M) 3,250 LT Investments ($529M) Sum of Parts: 1) $200M for OpCo 3) $600M for alibaba 4) $900M for cash/ST/LT investments (ex Alibaba stake) Roughly $1.7B value, with current marketcap at $1.2B... that would also be excluding any potential taxes from sale of Alibaba stake... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yadayada Posted September 18, 2014 Share Posted September 18, 2014 softbank has a similar upside? Looks like a better bet to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeddyLampert Posted September 18, 2014 Share Posted September 18, 2014 Yadayada, What is the discount to the IPO price (assuming no "pop") for SoftBank? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeddyLampert Posted September 18, 2014 Share Posted September 18, 2014 Actually, I realized my own mistake... I was converting HKD instead of RMB 4,649 Cash/ST ($757M) 3,250 LT Investments ($529M) Sum of Parts: 1) $200M for OpCo 3) $600M for alibaba 4) $900M for cash/ST/LT investments (ex Alibaba stake) Roughly $1.7B value, with current marketcap at $1.2B... that would also be excluding any potential taxes from sale of Alibaba stake... I've seen even the most sophisticated funds sometimes make that error of switching RMB and HKD, so nothing to be ashamed of! The discussion so far has given me some possible insight into why this opportunity exists. Among investors, there's still that tendency to dismiss out of hand Chinese companies ("just a chinese company...that is bleeding sales"). The VIC write up does a pretty decent job illustrating that the whole situation, including the opco, isn't fairly valued. I would use the sum-of-the-parts model there and play around with it because it is pretty clearly laid out. For example, one thing they did was adjust for the partial sale of China Dongxiang's stake and then some dilution following the IPO. This is a special situation where a quick back of the envelope doesn't really cut it and probably contributes to why the opportunity exists. As for the taxes, the WSJ also spun it as a throwaway "risk" without really doing any quantifying. It's probably worth doing digging into this rather than dismiss out of hand, because it smells like a red herring. I asked a friend whose family runs a public company in Hong Kong, and he says that HK listed companies might be liable for a 16.5% tax on investment gains, but he doesn't know the situation with China Dongxiang specifically and notes that it is a Cayman corporation, and the fund is also likely to be structured to minimize taxes. In other words, worse case scenario, 16.5% of the gains is leaked at the HK corporate level. Even without running a model, my mental math suggests there's still a big NAV discount Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeddyLampert Posted September 18, 2014 Share Posted September 18, 2014 softbank has a similar upside? Looks like a better bet to me. Yadayada, What is the discount to the IPO price for SoftBank (assuming no "pop")? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yadayada Posted September 18, 2014 Share Posted September 18, 2014 It is a large conglomerate. So obviously you need to have an opinion on sprint, on yahoo japan (i think nr 1 market share in search market in japan?) Willcom etc. But I think it looks reasonable that there is 40-50 % upside at least. And they will not sell their alibaba stake btw. I haven't invested so not done a lot of work on it. Read various write ups and some annual reports, and it looks somewhat complex to value. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wilson-TPC Posted September 18, 2014 Share Posted September 18, 2014 Actually, I realized my own mistake... I was converting HKD instead of RMB 4,649 Cash/ST ($757M) 3,250 LT Investments ($529M) Sum of Parts: 1) $200M for OpCo 3) $600M for alibaba 4) $900M for cash/ST/LT investments (ex Alibaba stake) Roughly $1.7B value, with current marketcap at $1.2B... that would also be excluding any potential taxes from sale of Alibaba stake... No cap gains in Hong Kong. Anything else? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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