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BABA - Alibaba


Liberty

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Yahoo and Softbank fell in comparison. I guess a lot of holders tried to jump to Alibaba instead or got impatient... if the Alibaba price holds >75, these 2 are trading at quite a big discount. (even at $68, Yahoo and Softbank are still undervalued on a SOTP basis, but not quite as compelling for me)

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I also  think so, but curious how should the tax effect be accounted for in SOTP analysis? doubt that we will get tax free spinoff  in BABA tracking shares from Softbank, so should BABA's value be discounted by 30% ~ 35% for the tax?

 

Today's selling is prob just profit taking for those playing the BABA IPOs through softbank and yahoo.

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Taxes would be different in Yahoo and Softbank - each is domiciled in a different country ... also, Yahoo sold all of the shares on which it had to pay full tax in the US, the rest are held in HK so there is a chance they will not face US taxes ... Ken Goldman has made some statements to this effect but nobody knows ATM. In any case, if BABA or Softbank buy Yahoo, there might be no corporate taxes ...

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  • 1 month later...

Alibaba to target ‘antiquated’ state-dominated sectors

 

 

 

 

 

 

Alibaba is looking to transform state-dominated sectors such as financial services and healthcare, a senior executive said on Tuesday, as Chinese consumers set a new record for online sales on Singles’ Day.

 

Joe Tsai, executive vice-chairman of Alibaba, told the Financial Times that financial services and healthcare were large but “very antiquated” industries where ecommerce could “roll out to reform the current system”.

 

 

 

Alibaba executives used Singles’ Day, the company’s biggest event since its landmark initial public offering in September, to lay out its next steps. “Aside from ecommerce in goods we’re also looking at ecommerce in services, in entertainment, in different types of content over the internet,” said Mr Tsai.

 

The raw power of ecommerce to change China was on display on Tuesday as an auditorium-sized billboard at Alibaba headquarters blinked massive sales totals for the day. The company – now almost $40bn larger than Walmart by market capitalisation – said a record $8bn worth of goods had been sold via its services, up from $5.8bn last year.

 

The Singles’ Day holiday, when unattached adults buy gifts for themselves, was created by students in 1993, but Alibaba has turned it into a festival of conspicuous consumption that has surpassed shopping records elsewhere in the world.

 

“You’re seeing the unleashing of the power of the Chinese consumer,” said Mr Tsai. “The Chinese economy was traditionally based on exports. Now we’re witnessing the shift of the economy from [one] driven by [the] state sector to one focused on the consumer, on everyone on the street.”

 

But Mr Tsai acknowledged that Alibaba’s moves into state-dominated industries have not gone as smoothly as it would have liked.

 

He admitted that the group’s plans for rolling into financial services, such as online money market fund Yu’e Bao, had been dealt “a setback” by the Central Bank’s decision to block plans for a virtual credit card last spring. Internet competition would have hurt Union Pay, the state credit card monopoly.

 

“The central bank obviously said, ‘Let’s slow things down a bit. Let’s understand what these innovations are really about and let’s bring reform rather than disruption’,” said Mr Tsai.

 

He added that plans to list Alipay, Alibaba’s PayPal-like payments service, would focus on an IPO in China due to government regulations limiting foreign ownership in banking. Alibaba has not announced the timing of such a listing.

 

Mr Tsai said that Alibaba’s financial services plans built on its advantage in big data and in its massive distribution ability. He mentioned mutual funds, insurance products and assets that can be packaged or securitised, such as small business loans.

 

“The potential there is great because the average person in China has very few investment options. If they have a lot of savings they don’t have a lot of choice,” he said.

 

Asked what the company would do with the $25bn it raised in the largest listing ever, he said the funds were “not earmarked for anything” and Alibaba was planning to use them to “act strategically when the opportunity arises”.

 

“We don't have a cap, but we also don’t have a certain budget that we have to spend. We don’t want to feel like we have cash burning a hole in our pocket, because that’s when we start to make mistakes,” he said.

 

Mr Tsai identified rural China, where 9 per cent of the population buys online compared with 30 per cent in the cities, as a priority. “When we see the rural opportunity we get very excited,” he said.

 

Singles’ Day also highlighted Alibaba’s aspirations beyond its home market. “This is the first year we want to change Singles’ Day from a China consumers’ day to a global consumers’ day,” said Daniel Zhang, chief operating officer. However, he added, “numbers could be quite small because we are in the beginning stage”.

 

The largest orders generated outside mainland China came from Hong Kong, the US and Taiwan respectively.

 

Mr Zhang said 35,000 merchants participated in the sales both in China and abroad.

 

Alibaba shares were down 3 per cent in lunchtime trading in New York.

 

 

 

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/c24e1540-69b8-11e4-8f4f-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3IhMpFalI

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  • 2 months later...
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http://blogs.barrons.com/asiastocks/2015/09/08/alibaba-declines-on-warning-of-china-economic-impact-summit-cuts-target-to-81/?mod=yahoobarrons&ru=yahoo

 

Down quite a bit today, trading in the low $60s.

 

I remember when people were estimating the IPO price to be 80-150b and I was skeptical the company open anywhere near that price, which turned out to be correct. 

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  • 2 weeks later...

Good and very thorough article by Bronte Capital on BABA.

 

I also indicated that the questions would be along the lines of "how interesting is this" and "how much bigger can it get". The rule of thumb of course is that if an internet company can grow 500% from here you probably should own the stock. However if it is near the end of its growth period you should not own the stock - because it will derate.

..

So there was 278 million deliveries for a total prospective 650 million users. In one day! The question is how much bigger can this get and what drives it to be bigger?

 

I then pointed them to official numbers that said that Amazon (worldwide) had 244 million users. That was 244 million separate accounts made at least one order in the past twelve months. The Amazon numbers are here.

 

Alibaba delivered more parcels in a single day than Amazon had users in a whole year.

..

To truly deliver at a larger intensity than Amazon Alibaba and its outsource network would need more staff or capital (or both) than Amazon and UPS combined.

..

 

We can do a comparison to Visa. Visa overbuilds capacity - they have built capacity to 56 thousand messages per second. We know from another press release that was about 4 times the actual peak in 2013. So the 2013 peak was 14,000 transactions per second - which is 840 thousand per minute.

 

Visa's peak transaction volume globally is only about 30 percent of Alipay's peak minute. This suggests a level of shopping in China that puts the US, Europe and most of Asia to shame.

..

There is no evidence that in any way the capital equipment at Alibaba and its distribution partnership comes close in scale and quality to the infrastructure of (say) UPS. However the delivery volumes are larger than UPS and Fedex combined and the employment levels are similar (in aggregate).

..

At this point I know the numbers are wonky - but working out whether this is material or not (or how material) will require some fine measurement techniques.

 

http://brontecapital.blogspot.com.au/2015/09/job-interview-questions-size-and-scope.html

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If ali is a cross between Amazon and eBay then there is a part (eBay) that doesn't need warehousing and logistics as it is done by the seller. It depends how big the eBay part is to judge the numbers.

 

I think that answers a lot of the concern.  Taoboa is almost all seller-handled shipping logistics? 

 

My chinese co-worker tells me that  he remembers it was much cheaper to ship gifts to his GF across China than it is to ship her similar items now that they are both stateside (From Texas to California).  I imagine this has something to do with the route/package density?

 

http://postandparcel.info/65217/news/china-claims-to-be-worlds-biggest-express-delivery-market/

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Funny to see Bronte go full conspiracy theorist. 

 

Does anyone have any AUM or performance figures from the fund? It seems like the guy has lost his marbles at times chasing down weird rabbit holes.

 

I think the candidates who didn't get hired avoided wasting years of their life.

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Funny to see Bronte go full conspiracy theorist. 

 

Does anyone have any AUM or performance figures from the fund? It seems like the guy has lost his marbles at times chasing down weird rabbit holes.

 

I think the candidates who didn't get hired avoided wasting years of their life.

 

He does seem to enjoy a bit of controversy.

 

The fund however is doing fine. Up 27% in the past 12 months and compounded 20% since inception.

 

 

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Funny to see Bronte go full conspiracy theorist. 

 

Does anyone have any AUM or performance figures from the fund? It seems like the guy has lost his marbles at times chasing down weird rabbit holes.

 

I think the candidates who didn't get hired avoided wasting years of their life.

 

Yeah well when you're looking at a chinese VIE with a history of foreign investor mistreatment, it's hardly unwarranted to scrutinize the numbers with an atomic microscope. Not that it prevents the highly probable end-game of fighting in chinese courts over claim on assets, mind you...

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Funny to see Bronte go full conspiracy theorist. 

 

Does anyone have any AUM or performance figures from the fund? It seems like the guy has lost his marbles at times chasing down weird rabbit holes.

 

I think the candidates who didn't get hired avoided wasting years of their life.

 

He does seem to enjoy a bit of controversy.

 

The fund however is doing fine. Up 27% in the past 12 months and compounded 20% since inception.

 

Is there a source on this?

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